Tyreek Hill NFL Player Props, Odds for Black Friday: Predictions for Dolphins vs. Jets

The New York Jets play host to the Miami Dolphins in a Black Friday AFC clash as we make our best Tyreek Hill NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

The Miami Dolphins' wide receiver Tyreek Hill has been a standout force in the league, showcasing exceptional skill and consistency. Hill currently leads in multiple key statistics, topping the charts in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and receptions through the team's first 10 games. His remarkable performance boasts an average of 122.2 yards per game, with an impressive six games already surpassing the coveted 100-yard mark in the 2023 season, solidifying his dominance on the field.

The Dolphins have encountered challenges against teams with winning records, a trend consistently highlighted. Hill's performance mirrors this trend, with an average of under 70 yards in such matchups. Despite the New York Jets not boasting a winning record, their defense stands out, ranking fifth in the NFL for pass defense. This sets the stage for an intriguing matchup. The Dolphins, known for struggling against successful teams, face a Jets team with a formidable pass defense, potentially adding another layer of difficulty for Hill and the Miami offense.

To accompany all of our NFL Week 12 predictions and Dolphins vs. Jets player props, here are our best Tyreek Hill NFL player prop predictions for the Miami Dolphins-New York Jets Week 12 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tyreek Hill NFL player prop predictions for Week 12

• Tyreek Hill Under 78.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Tyreek Hill 7-plus receptions (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐
• Tyreek Hill longest reception Under 25.5 yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

Tyreek Hill player props

Tyreek Hill Under 78.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

All of our best sports betting sites except FanDuel are listing Hill’s total at 75.5. The best price you’re going to find for the under is the -110 from bet365. However, considering how many explosive plays Hill has produced in 2023, we recommend taking the highest number available, even if the price is a little worse.

The Jets are allowing just 178.7 passing yards per game, and that falls to 165.3 across their last three contests. Weather won’t play much of a factor, as winds are expected to reach just 10 miles per hour. So whether Hill hits this Over simply comes down the matchup. And needing to beat Sauce Gardner is a daunting task.

The Jets have faced Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and Keenan Allen over the past three weeks. Only Adams has gone over this total, and he ended with just 86 yards.

Hill will be in motion often, but he’s going to be used as a decoy more than a weapon. Don’t expect Tua Tagovailoa to force the ball to him, as the other options on Miami's offense will get more attention from their quarterback.

Our Mike Spector also foresees the Jets limiting Hill during a low-scoring game in his Dolphins vs. Jets prediction. Similarly, our Tua Tagovailoa prop picks forecast a tough day yardage wise for the Dolphins signal-caller.

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Tyreek Hill 7-plus receptions (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐

It’s a bit counterintuitive to take Hill to catch seven passes but total fewer than 78.5 yards. After all, he’s only produced three games in 2023 with fewer than 10 yards per reception. However, there are a few reasons why this is the right play when it comes to Hill’s receptions prop.

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First, the price for over 5.5 is absurd at our best sportsbooks. Hill has only finished two games with fewer than six catches, but to pay -145 or worse for his Over against one of the league's best pass defenses is foolish.

Second, if the Dolphins struggle to get the ball to their best playmaker downfield, they’re going to target him around the line of scrimmage. We saw this approach against the Kansas City Chiefs, and Hill ended that game with eight catches for 62 yards.

Bet365 is alone among our best live betting sites while offering this prop at seven-plus receptions, and the price is good but not great. However, the price is significantly better than what you’d be paying for six-plus catches. This is a game when Hill could end up with his worst performance of the season, so we recommend paying less for one extra reception to minimize your risk.

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Tyreek Hill longest reception Under 25.5 yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

Hill is averaging 15.5 yards per completion in 2023, and he's notched at least one reception for 26-plus yards in seven games. However, the Jets are allowing just 9.0 yards per completion, the NFL's third-best mark.

The Jets did give up an 81-yard touchdown to Khalil Shakir in Week 11, and Adams and A.J. Brown both recorded receptions of 40-plus yards against this defense. But the Jets will likely force anyone other than Hill to beat them.

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This is a really low number considering Hill is the most explosive player in the NFL. Only BetMGM and DraftKings are offering this prop right now, and both are slightly favoring the Over. The Over not being priced differently makes it feel as though oddsmakers are trying to bait bettors, especially considering the odds for Hill's receptions total.

Tyreek Hill player prop picks made 11/23/2023 at 7:40 a.m. ET.

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