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Cowboys vs. Chargers Prediction, Picks & Odds Week 6: Expect Fireworks on Monday Night Football

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 16, 2023 6:20 PM EDT • 4 min 2 sec read.

Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys warms up prior to a game as we look at our best Cowboys vs. Chargers predictions for MNF
Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images via AFP.

The Dallas Cowboys are facing the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football, and our top Cowboys vs. Chargers prediction centers on Dallas rebounding as we look to get the best of the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

The Dallas Cowboys' 42-10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football was their largest lopsided loss since 2013. The Cowboys have struggled to come out on top when losing the turnover battle and had a minus-three turnover margin against the 49ers. Dallas' two losses have come in games in which it came out on the wrong side of the turnover battle.

The Los Angeles Chargers topped the Las Vegas Raiders 24-17 on the road in their last game in Week 4 and should benefit from the extra rest from their bye week. All four of the Chargers’ contests this season have been decided by seven or fewer points. Running back Austin Ekeler is expected to return to action after suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 1 and should provide an immediate upgrade to the backfield.

To accompany our Dak Prescott vs. Justin Herbert NFL player props, here is our best Cowboys vs. Chargers prediction for Monday Night Football, and don't miss our Cowboys-Chargers NFL player props (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cowboys vs. Chargers prediction: Monday Night Football

Cowboys ML (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Cowboys no longer rank in the top four of ESPN analytics’ rankings of chances to win the NFC, perhaps rightfully so. Dallas has proven repeatedly that it does not belong in the same class as teams like San Francisco, as evidenced by the Week 5 loss and back-to-back playoff ousters at the hands of its conference rivals.

However, quarterback Dak Prescott has established a proven track record against the NFL's non-elite teams, and Dallas is still a pretty good squad.

Based on current standings for 2023 opponents, Prescott is 8-13 in his career against first-place teams (.381 winning percentage), with a 1.2 touchdown to interception ratio, and Dallas averages 21.5 points per game in those contests. However, against teams anywhere from second to fourth place in their divisions, Prescott has a 56-25 record as a starter (.691 winning percentage), a 3.2 TD-INT ratio, leading the Cowboys to 27.9 points per game.

SoFi Stadium is not the most challenging road environment in the league. Chargers fans are often outnumbered by visiting fans, and playing on turf shouldn't be an issue for Dallas. The Cowboys are 14-1 on turf since the start of last season (including playoffs) and just 2-7 on grass.

Dallas’ eight first downs against San Francisco were tied for the fourth-fewest in franchise history, but the 49ers' defense is in a different stratosphere than the Chargers'.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert was held to a career-low in passing yards (167) and the lowest completion percentage he's had in a game since 2021 (54.2%) last time out against a Raiders team not typically known for defense. Though it appears likely the team will get Ekeler back, it is unreasonable to expect him to be the same running back who produced over 1,500 scrimmage yards last season in his first action since Week 1.

Our Brenden Schaeffer is targeting a high-scoring game with his Cowboys vs. Chargers parlay for MNF.

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Cowboys vs. Chargers best odds

bet365 (-130)

DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars bet365
Cowboys MLCowboys MLCowboys MLCowboys MLCowboys ML
-130 -132 -130 -130 -130

Cowboys moneyline backers have their pick of our best sports betting apps, as FanDuel is the only shop that differs from the consensus price of -130 from many of its competitors.

Many will argue that backing Dallas’ low -2 spread at -110 odds makes more sense financially. Still, the Chargers have a habit of playing nail-biters every week, so we want to remove the possibility of losing our wager if Dallas wins by one point or pushing if its margin of victory is two points.

Cowboys vs. Chargers odds for Monday Night Football

Cowboys vs. Chargers odds analysis

FanDuel is the only sportsbook as high as Cowboys -2.5, while all other competitors have a spread of -2. DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 all reached -2.5 at some point on Monday afternoon/night, but Chargers backers weighed in and drove the line back down.

Thus, from that line movement, it does not appear likely that the spread ever reaches -3 before kickoff. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five Monday Night Football appearances.

Caesars and bet365 are the only sportsbooks with a total of 51, while all other competitors offer an O/U of 50.5. FanDuel and Caesars were the only two that reached a high of 51.5 on Tuesday, but Under backers got involved at that number and drove the total back down.

Sixty-two percent of the early wagers have backed the Over, despite four of Dallas’s last five games in California staying Under the projected total.  

Monday Night Football game info

  • When: Monday, Oct. 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
  • How to watch: ABC/ESPN
  • Weather: Indoors

Cowboys-Chargers prediction made 10/11/2023 at 4:11 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.