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Dorian Thompson-Robinson #17 of the Cleveland Browns is injured on a play as we make our Browns vs. Rams NFL Week 13 picks and prediction.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson #17 of the Cleveland Browns is injured on a play in the third quarter of the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on November 26, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images via AFP.

The Cleveland Browns are making another (involuntary) quarterback change for Sunday's matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, and we offer our best Browns vs. Rams prediction based on the best NFL odds at our best sports betting apps.

The Denver Broncos ended the three-game winning streak of the Cleveland Browns (7-4) with a 29-12 victory on the road last week, further complicating matters for the Browns, as newly appointed starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson entered the concussion protocol. He was subsequently ruled out for Week 13. Consequently, the recently added veteran Joe Flacco is set to start on Sunday in his place.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams advanced to a 5-6 record by completing a season sweep of the Arizona Cardinals, marking the fifth such sweep in the last seven seasons. Notably, the Rams secured a two-game winning streak for the first time this year.

In addition to our NFL Week 13 predictions and NFL Week 13 player props, here are our best Browns vs. Rams prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Browns vs. Rams prediction: Week 13

Browns team total Under 17.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Flacco under center on Sunday, he will become the fourth different Browns starting quarterback this year, and that revolving door around the sport’s most important position cannot be good for the team’s offensive outlook.

Flacco started four games (played in five) for the New York Jets last season and finished with his second-lowest completion percentage (57.6%), second-worst touchdown percentage (2.6%), lowest yards per attempt (5.5) and second-lowest yards per completion (9.6) of his entire career.

In addition, Flacco only signed with the team on Nov. 20, so he will likely not be given the full complement of plays with less than two weeks to learn the system.

Even if Thompson-Robinson is healthy enough to play, we are not sold on Cleveland’s offensive potential. The Browns are just 2-3 and have averaged 13.4 points per game without Deshaun Watson under center, and they are coming off their fourth game with three or more turnovers, all losses.

Thompson-Robinson ranks dead last in yards per attempt (4.1) among the 49 quarterbacks who have attempted 35 or more passes this season, and the Browns have averaged a league-low 4.0 yards on first down, per Sharp Football Analysis.

That does not bode well for Cleveland’s chances of consistently moving the chains, considering it has converted third-and-longs at the third-lowest rate this season.

There is also a path for Los Angeles to dominate time of possession, as Cleveland could be without two of its most important defensive players in Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. Given the uncertainty around their health, we are hesitant to back the full game Under, as the Browns’ dominant defense — which ranks first in total defense and seventh in points allowed — could be compromised.

Instead, the safest play at our best sportsbooks is to back the Under on Cleveland’s team total, as we would not expect its offense to score 18 or more points with Flacco under center.

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Browns vs. Rams best odds

FanDuel (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
17.517.517.517.516.5
-112-110-115-115+100

For a standard team total of 17.5 points, FanDuel is the best option for Under backers, as it is the only shop charging standard -110 juice at that number.

There are plenty of alternate team totals for bettors to explore among our best sports betting apps that could be more enticing — like Under 16.5 for +120 at DraftKings, which trumps the +100 odds at bet365, or the +133 odds at Caesars for Under 16.

Going the other way, the -131 odds for Under 19 at Caesars is not bad value, considering bet365 charges -160 to wager on Cleveland Under 19.5 points. Either way, we are getting behind the Browns’ Under now at our best sportsbooks, as the line would likely plummet if Flacco is announced as the starting quarterback.

Browns vs. Rams odds

Browns vs. Rams odds analysis

Almost all of our best sports betting sites are in unison with the Rams as 3.5-point favorites except Caesars, which is at -4.

The line opened as low as -3 at FanDuel on Sunday night and reached highs of -4.5 at FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars thus far. DraftKings and bet365 had week-long highs of -5 before Browns backers drove the number down.

Early point spread wagers are 2-to-1 in favor of Los Angeles. The Rams are 0-9 ATS in home games following a win, while the Browns are 7-0 SU following a loss.

FanDuel and Caesars are on the low end of the O/U, offering 39.5 compared to the 40 found at all other competing sportsbooks. All line movement at each of our best sportsbooks has gone in the direction of the Over from the opening numbers, which started most commonly at 38.5 (38 at DraftKings).

The Over is 5-0 in Cleveland’s five road games, making it the only team that has seen the Over cash in every one of its road games.

Browns vs. Rams game info

  • When: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: Indoors

Browns-Rams prediction made Thursday at 4:11 p.m. ET.

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