NFL Best Bets Week 6: Will Giants’ Offensive Struggles Continue vs. Bills?
As NFL contenders and pretenders continue to carve out their positions in the standings, we turn our attention to our NFL best bets for Week 6. All our NFL picks are based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
Week 6 started with the Kansas City Chiefs securing their 16th consecutive win against the Denver Broncos, and it’s the longest active winning streak (and the third-longest in NFL history) by one team against a single opponent. The stretch is all the more impressive with the Chiefs and Broncos meeting twice a year as AFC West rivals.
Meanwhile, the bright lights haven’t been kind to the New York Giants. The G-Men are 0-3 both SU and ATS in their three night games this season, and they have a combined minus-79 point differential.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Miami Dolphins set an NFL record for the most offensive yards through five games (2,568), and they’ll look to further establish themselves as Super Bowl contenders with a win over the 0-5 Carolina Panthers as a double-digit home favorite.
For further analysis of every NFL game this week, check out our NFL predictions for Week 6, as well as our NFL player props, teaser picks, upset picks, and survivor picks.
Here are our NFL best bets and NFL picks for Week 6 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets: Week 6
- A.J. Brown Under 64.5 receiving yards vs. Jets (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa to record 3+ passing touchdowns vs. Panthers (+200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Giants Under 15.5 vs. Bills (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patriots-Raiders Under 41.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Week 6 NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Baltimore Ravens (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
- Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
- New Orleans Saints (-1.5) vs. Houston Texans
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
- Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (-10) vs. Cleveland Browns
- Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. Chicago Bears
- New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
- Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs. New York Jets
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7)
- New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills (-14.5)
- Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
NFL predictions for Week 6
A.J. Brown Under 64.5 receiving yards vs. Jets (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown's 1,496 receiving yards in his first year with the team were a franchise record, and he has followed that up with more accolades this year, as his 433 receiving yards over the previous three games are the third-most in a three-game span in Eagles history. However, Brown is about to face arguably the stiffest test he will face all season in New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner.
PFF's Jrfortgang highlighted how well Gardner has played compared to the rest of the league's cornerbacks with respect to separation prevented and targets faced through Week 4. Gardner followed that up with an 81.9 PFF coverage grade and 19 yards allowed with two forced incompletions last week against the Denver Broncos.
We would make this a more confident five-star play if we were not worried about lingering effects from a knee injury that sidelined him for some time last week. However, with fellow cornerback D.J. Reed questionable this week, we expect Gardner to not only play effectively but also to be used more in shadow coverage than usual against Brown.
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All of our best sports betting apps are aligned with Brown’s O/U of 64.5 receiving yards, but bet365 is the only one not juiced to the Under, as DraftKings and Caesars charge -115 and -117, respectively.
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Tua Tagovailoa to record three-plus passing touchdowns vs. Panthers (+200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Some expect the Dolphins' offense to take a step back while explosive rookie running back De'Von Achane is sidelined with a knee injury. After all, Achane has the most yards per rush through five games in NFL history (12.1) among those with a minimum of 25 carries, and he has totaled 518 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns in the last three games.
Believe it or not, Tua Tagovailoa's numbers are better with Achane off the field. When Achane is on the field, Tagovailoa has a 64 total QBR, a 3-3 touchdown touchdown-to-interception ratio, has faced pressure on 23% of dropbacks, and averaged 6.0 air yards per attempt. When Achane is off the field, Tagovailoa's QBR rises to 79 with an 8-2 TD-INT ratio. In addition, he faces pressure on 14% of dropbacks and averages 8.1 air yards per attempt.
Tagovailoa may not need to pass much if the Dolphins race out to a big lead early, but with this wager, we expect him to be a big reason for Miami's offensive success without its most explosive threat on the ground.
Tagovailoa has as high as -225 odds at BetMGM and FanDuel to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns, so we find much better value with this offer at bet365.
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Giants Under 15.5 vs. Bills (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Buffalo Bills will be without defensive starters at all levels (defensive line, linebacker, secondary) when facing the Giants. However, not only is New York dealing with injuries of its own to its quarterback (Daniel Jones has a neck injury), but the team could once again be without the services of running back Saquon Barkley and offensive lineman Andrew Thomas.
New York's only first-half touchdown this season is a defensive score, and its struggles are in large part due to the fact it has used 32 different offensive line combinations since 2022 (third-most). The Giants have allowed 18 sacks in the last two games, the most in a two-game span since the 1986 Eagles, who took an NFL-record 72 sacks that season.
Buffalo possessed the ball for fewer than 22 minutes in its loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, its worst time of possession in a game since 2019. Thus, we expect the Bills to lean on a running game more than usual after traveling back from London, which should be effective since just two teams rank worse than New York in rush EPA.
This is a four-star play, as Buffalo was just the sixth team since 1970 to score 135-plus points and allow fewer than 60 through its first four games, which has us confident that the Bills can overcome their injuries against an underperforming Giants offense.
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DraftKings and FanDuel have a price of -112 to back New York’s team total Under of 14.5, so not only are we getting a better price at Caesars, but we are getting a slightly better number, as well.
Patriots-Raiders Under 41.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick's worst two losses in his head coaching career have come in the last two weeks, as the team has been outscored 72-3.
In addition, the Patriots have endured consecutive losses of 30-plus points for the first time since 1970, and quarterback Mac Jones has failed to cover the spread in any of the last 10 games that his team has been an underdog.
However, instead of backing the Las Vegas Raiders as favorites, we have too much respect for Belichick's ability to outcoach his former assistants (Josh McDaniels is the Raiders head coach), so we are instead making the Under a four-star play.
New England has failed to score a touchdown in 10 quarters, spanning 34 drives. The Patriots rank last in points per game (11.0), last in efficiency (12.7), 30th in three-and-out percentage (27%), 29th in first downs per game (16.4), and are tied for 28th in turnovers (10).
Per ESPN Analytics/NFL Next Gen Stats, Patriots receivers are getting open an NFL-worst 40% of the time based on open percentage, and New England ranks 30th in pass block win rate (44%). That is scary when facing Maxx Crosby, whose five sacks are the fourth-most in Raiders history through the first five games of a season.
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BetMGM, DraftKings, and bet365 are the only sportsbooks offering a total of 41.5 at the standard price of -110, as several competing shops are at 41 or charge more in juice to back the Under.
NFL best bets made 10/12/2023 at 4:13 p.m. ET.
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NFL betting odds pages
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