NFL Upset Picks, Predictions for Week 8: Remember The Titans’ Success As Home Dogs

The Tennessee Titans have been successful as home underdogs and we think that can continue in our Week 8 NFL upset picks based on the best NFL odds.

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: October 29, 2023 11:20 AM EDT • 6 minute read

The Tennessee Titans are consistently worth considering as home underdogs, and this week is no exception, as they rank among our top NFL upset picks for Week 8. All our NFL picks are based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

Due to the absence of their top quarterback, Ryan Tannehill (ankle injury), the Tennessee Titans will be depending on their backup quarterback(s) in the game against the Atlanta Falcons.

Nevertheless, the Titans' robust running game and dependable defense provide them with the means to stay competitive against the Falcons, who have a modest 1-2 road record as they visit Nissan Stadium.

To accompany our NFL Week 8 predictions and NFL best bets, here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 8 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL upset picks: Week 8

Tennessee Titans (+130 via Caesars) vs. Atlanta Falcons ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Carolina Panthers (+138 via FanDuel) vs. Houston Texans ⭐⭐⭐
Chicago Bears (+350 via FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Chargers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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NFL upset predictions

Titans ML vs. Falcons (+130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Tennessee Titans might have been favored in this game if they weren’t expected to be without quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is dealing with an ankle injury. But is there any team in the NFL that relies less on its QBs than the Titans?

Tennessee ranks last in the league in passing attempts and completions, and third-last in passing yards. Even with Will Levis or Malik Willis under center (it’s possible that both see action this week), the Titans’ path to victory will be through running back Derrick Henry and a ground game averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and the defense.

The Titans have been solid all season defensively, allowing 24 points or fewer in five of their last six games. They had a bye week to prepare for the Atlanta Falcons and should have no problem bottling up Atlanta’s ground attack and forcing rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder to beat them through the air.

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Ridder is coming off one of his best performances of the season, completing 76% of his passes for 250 yards in last week’s 16-13 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he’s still prone to turnovers. He and the Falcons have also failed to score more than 21 points in a game since mid-September.

Consider that the Titans were 2.5-point underdogs in recent home games to the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers, both of which they won outright. Even without Tannehill, they shouldn’t be catching a similar number of points at Nissan Stadium, where they've been successful as 'dogs.

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Panthers ML vs. Texans (+138 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

There’s no sugar-coating the fact that this has been a difficult season for the Carolina Panthers, who are not only still seeking their first victory but also their first point spread cover. However, a bye week was an opportunity to hit the mental reset button, and the chance to play a beatable opponent should also motivate this young Panthers squad.

The Houston Texans are certainly more beatable than teams Carolina has faced so far this season. The Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons are all potential playoff teams. Houston is also in a postseason position after going 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in its first six games, but it isn’t easy to see the Texans’ early success sustaining with a defense that is 25th in yards allowed and 26th versus the pass.

Speaking of defending the pass, that might be what Carolina does best, ranking third in the league in completions allowed and ninth in yards. Houston’s inability to move the ball on the ground (3.2 yards per carry on the season) could leave rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud in plenty of third-and-longs, and those will be tough to convert against this underrated Panthers defense.

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Bears ML vs. Chargers (+350 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Los Angeles Chargers failed to deliver as one of our best NFL upset picks for last week, going scoreless in the entire second half of a 31-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs that dropped them to 2-4 on the season. Frustration seems to be setting in as the Chargers see another promising season starting to go off the rails. Going back to last year, LA has now lost six of its last eight games, including a wild-card defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars when the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead.

While frustration grows in L.A., optimism only increases for Chicago Bears fans. Chicago’s 30-12 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last week was the Bears’ second in three games following a 14-game losing streak. Rookie signal-caller Tyson Bagent was solid in place of the injured Justin Fields, leading three touchdown drives and completing 21 of 29 passes. Meanwhile, the Bears’ defense has turned things around, allowing an average of 227.5 total yards in its last two games versus the Raiders and Minnesota Vikings.

You could argue Chicago boasts the better defense of these two squads, considering Los Angeles ranks 30th in points against and rushing yards allowed over the past three seasons. If that’s not enough for you to pull the trigger on an underdog play on the Bears, the Chargers are known for having the worst home-field advantage in the league at SoFi Stadium — a field that should be filled with Bears fans for this Sunday Night Football matchup.

NFL upset picks made 10/25/2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Connor Cooper

Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions based on NFL experience and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.