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How to Win Your Super Bowl Prop Pool

How to Win Your Super Bowl Prop Pool
A view of SoFi Stadium as workers prepare for Super Bowl LVI. Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images via AFP.

As the Los Angeles Rams prepare to face the Cincinnati Bengals at SoFi Stadium, we are going to look at tips and strategies that can help you win your Super Bowl Prop Pool.

Coming into the season, the Cincinnati Bengals were longshots to be in the Super Bowl. Their franchise quarterback, Joe Burrow, suffered a torn ACL in November of 2020 and, while he would be ready to play this season, who could know just how effective he would be coming back from that injury? Burrow elevated his game after Cincinnati’s Week 10 bye and has been a driving force for the Bengals’ late season and playoff success.

The Los Angeles Rams have been lurking around a title for a while, making the playoffs in three of the past four seasons prior to the 2021 season. The Rams made a dramatic trade last offseason, sending quarterback Jared Goff and three draft picks to the Detroit Lions for quarterback Matthew Stafford. Although he led the NFL with 17 interceptions this season, Stafford passed for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns. The Rams also added star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. midway through the season, giving Stafford another high-quality weapon.

Both teams both finished the regular season with positive momentum and have both won three playoff games to earn their Super Bowl berths.

Below, we offer up the best strategies, tips, and stats to help you win your 2022 Super Bowl props pool.

What are Super Bowl Prop Pools?

A Super Bowl prop pool is a series of questions that require each player to answer one way or the other. It can be a yes or no question. Will the last team to score win the game? Will the first score of the game be a touchdown? Can a quarterback pass for 300 or more yards? 

It can also require picking one of the two teams, the Cincinnati Bengals or Los Angeles Rams. Which team will win the opening coin toss? Who will score first? Which team will take the first penalty?

The pool can be as intricate and detailed or as general and accessible as you would like. They can involve specific yardage totals for individual players and can also cover the coin toss, national anthem, and the halftime show. As an organizer, it makes sense to create a pool that fits your audience.

The nature of Super Bowl prop pools makes them easy to play and fun for everyone, whether you spend hours diving into statistical trends or just want to play your best hunch. The beauty of it is that anyone can win. 

Sure, taking statistical probability into account might help but this game is only going to get played once, so determining the most statistically probable outcome for each question is still going to be at the mercy of the small sample of a single game.

SEE ALSO: Rams vs. Bengals Picks

Super Bowl Prop Pool Strategies

Pick a winner and stick to it

Decide on which team that you think will win the game and make your picks accordingly. If you think the Cincinnati Bengals will win, make choices that are consistent with that evaluation. 

SEE ALSO: Top Super Bowl 56 Prop Bets

If you expect the Bengals to win, consider what the most likely path might be to that victory. Maybe it’s Joe Burrow having a huge game or perhaps the Cincinnati defense rising to the challenge and creating turnovers. Whatever the case, once deciding on a team to win, make choices that can reasonably lead to that outcome. 

There is no point in going with half measures and hedging at every turn because while that might be a strategy to avoid coming in last, it is not a recipe to win.

Correlate your prop picks

Teams that win the Super Bowl tend to rush for more yards, for example, finishing with higher rushing totals in 41 of 55 games. Those rushing yards might not be what cause a team to win, but the circumstances of the game, and the plays called by leading teams can affect those results.

The team with more passing yards per attempt has won 43 of 55 Super Bowls. The team that turns the ball over more rarely wins, emerging victorious in just six Super Bowls.

Teams that win the Super Bowl also tend to cover, going 46-6-3 against the spread. The Los Angeles Rams are currently 4.5-point favorites, playing at their home stadium.

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Look at recent results

The average winning score in the history of the Super Bowl is 30.1 to 16.0, a comfortable margin of victory. However, 16 of the past 18 Super Bowls have had a margin of less than 14 points. While there was a time when the Super Bowl tended to result in a lopsided blowout, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did win 31-9 over the Kansas City Chiefs last season, the games have tended to be closer. 

In the past 20 Super Bowls, the result has been within one score (eight points or less) 11 times and underdogs are 14-6 ATS. Usually, if an underdog is going to cover, they are going to win the game outright. The underdog has never covered without winning on a point spread of six or fewer points. The team that wins the Super Bowl is 46-6-3 ATS.

This year’s total is 48.5 and the Super Bowl has gone under in three straight games. The last time it was under for four years in a row was from 2005 to 2008.

SEE ALSO: Coin Toss, Gatorade Bath Drawing Plenty of Action

While the trend has tended to be unfavorable for the team with better offensive numbers during the regular season, the Rams and Bengals are both very close in terms of their offensive production. Both teams scored exactly 460 points over 17 games.

The teams that have allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have won six Super Bowls in a row, both straight up and ATS. The Rams do have an advantage in this category, but it is tiny. They allowed 21.9 points per game compared to the Bengals allowing 22.1 points per game. 

There are some trends toward which team could win but the Rams and Bengals are so close statistically that sweeping trends may not apply.

SEE ALSO: Super Bowl MVP Picks

Don’t be afraid to be different

Daring to be different can set your entry apart from the others. The degree to which you need to be different in order to win is going to be dependent on the size of your pool. 

SEE ALSO: Super Bowl Betting Strategies

If it’s a relatively small group, say a dozen people at a house party, there is less of a need to shoot for an unusual combination of answers. Just by chance you will likely have a combination of answers that is different than the other entries. If it’s a large group, there is naturally a greater likelihood that someone else will have picks that are like yours. That means that one or two picks going against the grain could provide the final edge.

Ultimately, prop pools are a fun way to enjoy the game with a group even if a lot of the questions might feel like flipping a coin. By the way, there have been 29 tails and 26 heads in Super Bowl coin flip history.

Where to Bet on the Super Bowl

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SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.