🏈 NFL Schedule Rankings 2026: We Calculated Real SOS Ratings After Schedule Release

The best part about the NFL schedule release is learning how tough your favorite team's path is to the Super Bowl. The worst part is sifting through the noise.

It's my goal to help you do both with my NFL strength of schedule rankings based on the full 2026 NFL schedule, which rely on market-adjusted power ratings for all 32 teams to determine which teams have the toughest and easiest schedules in 2026. These should look similar to other rankings but with a more accurate view of each team's opponent strength while also factoring in location for all 17 games.

In the end, the difference between the best and worst schedule is worth roughly 1.5 wins before these teams even step onto the field. Below, I break down the full rankings 1-32 following the schedule release, the biggest takeaways from this year's schedule, and a team-by-team breakdown of game difficulty and schedule strength.

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📊 2026 NFL strength of schedule rankings: Market-adjusted SOS

Teams ranked by SBR's strength of schedule metric using market-adjusted power ratings for all 32 teams and home-field advantage.

Cardinals face toughest schedule in 2026

Arizona was already the lowest-rated team in the market before the schedule released and dropped an anvil on the Cardinals' hopes of making the playoffs in 2026. That's perfectly fine for this front office as it plans for the future, especially with the present featuring seven "high-difficulty" games - tied for the most of any team.

Lions draw easiest 2026 schedule

One year after missing the playoffs despite entering the year among the NFC favorites, the Lions will get a head start this year with the easiest schedule of any team - 1.1 points better than average per game worth nearly a full win across the season. Detroit hits the road twice against a top-10 opponent in our power ratings and gets one of its toughest opponents (New England) at a neutral site in Munich.

Jaguars pay the London tax

Jacksonville had a borderline top-10 schedule by aggregate difficulty before the NFL schedule gods took two of its home games and moved them to London - leaving the Jaguars with just six games at home and 11 on the road or overseas. That's a tough break for last year's AFC South winners, who have the fifth-hardest schedule by our rankings, especially with the Texans (13th), Titans (17th), and Colts (26th) enjoying much easier slates.

Ravens draw easiest path of top tier

Baltimore was already my early pick to win the Super Bowl following a critical offseason for the Ravens, who rank second in the market and now face the fourth-easiest schedule by our rankings following the official release. That includes a Week 3 "road game" against the Cowboys in Brazil and home games against the Jaguars (Week 9) and Chargers (Week 11).

NFC West earns no favor after Super Bowl

The best division in football just got harder with three of the NFC West's four teams - the Cardinals (first), Rams (third), and Seahawks (ninth) - ranking in the top 10 in NFL strength of schedule after Seattle's battle-tested title run last year. These teams face a hard enough path each year with extended road trips across the country, but the difficulty of opponents alone could leave all four battered by January.

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🏈 2026 NFL schedule strength: Team-by-team breakdown

Below, I've broken down all 32 teams' full schedules with a difficulty rating for all 17 games based on opponent strength and location (home-field advantage). I've used a color key to easily identify which games are high difficulty (🔴), average difficulty (🟡), and low difficulty (🟢); asterisks are used to denote neutral-site games.

I detail my full methodology and how I developed market-adjusted power ratings at the end of this article. Here's a look at all 32 teams' schedules by game-to-game difficulty:

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Arizona Cardinals strength of schedule (1st)

• Toughest matchup: Week 6 @ Rams (+6.52)
• Easiest matchup: Week 15 vs. Jets (-7.22)
• Total schedule difficulty: +19.30
• Per-game average: +1.14
• Tier breakdown: 7 🔴 / 7 🟡 / 3 🟢

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Atlanta Falcons strength of schedule (15th)

*Game played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

• Toughest matchup: Week 3 @ Packers (+4.39)
• Easiest matchup: Week 2 vs. Panthers (-4.24)
• Total schedule difficulty: +0.77
• Per-game average: +0.05
• Tier breakdown: 2 🔴 / 11 🟡 / 4 🟢

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Baltimore Ravens strength of schedule (29th)

*Game played at Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

• Toughest matchup: Week 8 @ Bills (+5.82)
• Easiest matchup: Week 16 vs. Browns (-6.48)
• Total schedule difficulty: -8.93
• Per-game average: -0.53
• Tier breakdown: 3 🔴 / 8 🟡 / 6 🟢

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Buffalo Bills strength of schedule (10th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 5 @ Rams (+6.52)
• Easiest matchup: Week 11 vs. Dolphins (-8.38)
• Total schedule difficulty: +2.96
• Per-game average: +0.17
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 6 🟡 / 5 🟢

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Carolina Panthers strength of schedule (11th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 6 @ Eagles (+4.51)
• Easiest matchup: Week 18 vs. Falcons (-4.35)
• Total schedule difficulty: +2.92
• Per-game average: +0.17
• Tier breakdown: 3 🔴 / 10 🟡 / 4 🟢

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Chicago Bears strength of schedule (12th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 8 @ Seahawks (+5.85)
• Easiest matchup: Week 4 vs. Jets (-7.22)
• Total schedule difficulty: +2.57
• Per-game average: +0.15
• Tier breakdown: 4 🔴 / 8 🟡 / 5 🟢

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Cincinnati Bengals strength of schedule (31st)

*Game played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

• Toughest matchup: Week 7 @ Ravens (+6.03)
• Easiest matchup: Week 18 vs. Browns (-6.48)
• Total schedule difficulty: -16.98
• Per-game average: -1.00
• Tier breakdown: 3 🔴 / 6 🟡 / 8 🟢

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Cleveland Browns strength of schedule (28th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 16 @ Ravens (+6.03)
• Easiest matchup: Week 12 vs. Raiders (-6.10)
• Total schedule difficulty: -8.51
• Per-game average: -0.50
• Tier breakdown: 4 🔴 / 7 🟡 / 6 🟢

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Dallas Cowboys strength of schedule (4th)

*Game played at Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

• Toughest matchup: Week 15 @ Rams (+6.52)
• Easiest matchup: Week 8 vs. Cardinals (-8.68)
• Total schedule difficulty: +7.49
• Per-game average: +0.44
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 6 🟡 / 5 🟢

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Denver Broncos strength of schedule (19th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 1 @ Chiefs (+4.63)
• Easiest matchup: Week 13 vs. Dolphins (-8.38)
• Total schedule difficulty: +0.34
• Per-game average: +0.02
• Tier breakdown: 5 🔴 / 7 🟡 / 5 🟢

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Detroit Lions strength of schedule (32nd)

*Game played at Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)

• Toughest matchup: Week 2 @ Bills (+5.82)
• Easiest matchup: Week 3 vs. Jets (-7.22)
• Total schedule difficulty: -18.40
• Per-game average: -1.08
• Tier breakdown: 4 🔴 / 5 🟡 / 8 🟢

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Green Bay Packers strength of schedule (18th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 12 @ Rams (+6.52)
• Easiest matchup: Week 15 vs. Dolphins (-8.38)
• Total schedule difficulty: +0.56
• Per-game average: +0.03
• Tier breakdown: 4 🔴 / 8 🟡 / 5 🟢

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Houston Texans strength of schedule (13th)

*Game played at Wembley Stadium (London)

• Toughest matchup: Week 16 @ Eagles (+4.51)
• Easiest matchup: Week 18 vs. Titans (-5.71)
• Total schedule difficulty: +2.42
• Per-game average: +0.14
• Tier breakdown: 4 🔴 / 9 🟡 / 4 🟢

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Indianapolis Colts strength of schedule (26th)

*Game played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)

• Toughest matchup: Week 2 @ Chiefs (+4.63)
• Easiest matchup: Week 10 vs. Dolphins (-8.38)
• Total schedule difficulty: -4.82
• Per-game average: -0.28
• Tier breakdown: 5 🔴 / 8 🟡 / 4 🟢

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Jacksonville Jaguars strength of schedule (5th)

*Game played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)

**Game played at Wembley Stadium (London)

• Toughest matchup: Week 9 @ Ravens (+6.03)
• Easiest matchup: Week 1 vs. Browns (-6.48)
• Total schedule difficulty: +7.08
• Per-game average: +0.42
• Tier breakdown: 7 🔴 / 5 🟡 / 5 🟢

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Kansas City Chiefs strength of schedule (20th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 13 @ Rams (+6.52)
• Easiest matchup: Week 11 vs. Cardinals (-8.68)
• Total schedule difficulty: -0.04
• Per-game average: -0.00
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 5 🟡 / 6 🟢

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Las Vegas Raiders strength of schedule (8th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 18 @ Chiefs (+4.63)
• Easiest matchup: Week 1 vs. Dolphins (-8.38)
• Total schedule difficulty: +4.72
• Per-game average: +0.28
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 6 🟡 / 5 🟢

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Los Angeles Chargers strength of schedule (7th)

*Game played at SoFi Stadium, shared by both teams

• Toughest matchup: Week 10 @ Ravens (+6.03)
• Easiest matchup: Week 1 vs. Cardinals (-8.68)
• Total schedule difficulty: +5.17
• Per-game average: +0.30
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 6 🟡 / 5 🟢

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Los Angeles Rams strength of schedule (3rd)

*Game played at Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne, Australia)

**Game played at SoFi Stadium, shared by both teams

• Toughest matchup: Week 16 @ Seahawks (+5.85)
• Easiest matchup: Week 6 vs. Cardinals (-8.68)
• Total schedule difficulty: +10.78
• Per-game average: +0.63
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 7 🟡 / 4 🟢

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Miami Dolphins strength of schedule (2nd)

• Toughest matchup: Week 11 @ Bills (+5.82)
• Easiest matchup: Week 12 vs. Jets (-7.22)
• Total schedule difficulty: +16.34
• Per-game average: +0.96
• Tier breakdown: 5 🔴 / 9 🟡 / 3 🟢

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Minnesota Vikings strength of schedule (23rd)

*Game played at Estadio Banorte (Mexico City)

• Toughest matchup: Week 8 @ Lions (+4.95)
• Easiest matchup: Week 4 vs. Dolphins (-8.38)
• Total schedule difficulty: -2.95
• Per-game average: -0.17
• Tier breakdown: 5 🔴 / 6 🟡 / 6 🟢

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New England Patriots strength of schedule (22nd)

*Game played at Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)

• Toughest matchup: Week 1 @ Seahawks (+5.85)
• Easiest matchup: Week 18 vs. Dolphins (-8.38)
• Total schedule difficulty: -2.80
• Per-game average: -0.16
• Tier breakdown: 7 🔴 / 3 🟡 / 7 🟢

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New Orleans Saints strength of schedule (30th)

*Game played at Stade de France (Saint-Denis, France)

• Toughest matchup: Week 2 @ Ravens (+6.03)
• Easiest matchup: Week 16 vs. Cardinals (-8.68)
• Total schedule difficulty: -16.55
• Per-game average: -0.97
• Tier breakdown: 4 🔴 / 6 🟡 / 7 🟢

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New York Giants strength of schedule 2026 (14th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 2 @ Rams (+6.52)
• Easiest matchup: Week 4 vs. Cardinals (-8.68)
• Total schedule difficulty: +2.14
• Per-game average: +0.13
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 6 🟡 / 5 🟢

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New York Jets strength of schedule (25th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 18 @ Bills (+5.82)
• Easiest matchup: Week 7 vs. Dolphins (-8.38)
• Total schedule difficulty: -4.32
• Per-game average: -0.25
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 5 🟡 / 6 🟢

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Philadelphia Eagles strength of schedule (27th)

*Game played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)

• Toughest matchup: Week 17 @ 49ers (+4.54)
• Easiest matchup: Week 13 @ Cardinals (-4.68)
• Total schedule difficulty: -7.17
• Per-game average: -0.42
• Tier breakdown: 4 🔴 / 7 🟡 / 6 🟢

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Pittsburgh Steelers strength of schedule (16th)

*Game played at Stade de France (Saint-Denis, France)

• Toughest matchup: Week 18 @ Ravens (+6.03)
• Easiest matchup: Week 8 vs. Browns (-6.48)
• Total schedule difficulty: +0.76
• Per-game average: +0.04
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 6 🟡 / 5 🟢

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San Francisco 49ers strength of schedule (24th)

*Game played at Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne, Australia)

**Game played at Estadio Banorte (Mexico City)

• Toughest matchup: Week 5 @ Seahawks (+5.85)
• Easiest matchup: Week 3 vs. Cardinals (-8.68)
• Total schedule difficulty: -4.15
• Per-game average: -0.24
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 6 🟡 / 5 🟢

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Seattle Seahawks strength of schedule (9th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 18 @ Rams (+6.52)
• Easiest matchup: Week 9 vs. Cardinals (-8.68)  
• Total schedule difficulty: +3.74
• Per-game average: +0.22
• Tier breakdown: 5 🔴 / 8 🟡 / 4 🟢

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers strength of schedule (21st)

• Toughest matchup: Week 14 @ Ravens (+6.03)
• Easiest matchup: Week 2 vs. Browns (-6.48)
• Total schedule difficulty: -0.59
• Per-game average: -0.03
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 5 🟡 / 6 🟢

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Tennessee Titans strength of schedule (17th)

• Toughest matchup: Week 4 @ Ravens (+6.03)
• Easiest matchup: Week 1 vs. Jets (-7.22)
• Total schedule difficulty: +0.68
• Per-game average: +0.04
• Tier breakdown: 6 🔴 / 5 🟡 / 6 🟢

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Washington Commanders strength of schedule (6th)

*Game played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)

• Toughest matchup: Week 6 @ 49ers (+4.54)
• Easiest matchup: Week 12 @ Cardinals (-4.68)
• Total schedule difficulty: +5.49
• Per-game average: +0.32
• Tier breakdown: 5 🔴 / 9 🟡 / 3 🟢

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🔍 How we built our NFL strength of schedule rankings

Over the years, I've grown frustrated with the lack of reliable data to easily understand whether my favorite team has an easy or difficult schedule in the upcoming season.

Most rely on last year's win-loss records to determine which teams face the toughest schedules this year - even when the correlation has been proven to be tenuous, at best. It's not enough to just take win totals, either: those already have strength of schedule baked into the number (a team with an easier schedule will have a higher win total), and ignoring the price of the Over and Under misses crucial context on the total itself.

So I took a different approach this year:

• First, I pulled the NFL projected win totals and Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams across five of our best sports betting sites and adjusted each price for the hold across the entire market. Once I had the juice-free price for every team, I averaged those totals across all five books to build a market-adjusted power rating for all 32 teams.
• Then, I assigned a difficulty rating to every game on all 32 teams' schedules based on the strength of opponent and location, using a 2-point margin for home-field advantage (the current industry standard over 2.5 or 3 points). There was no advantage awarded for games played at a neutral site or in a shared stadium with both teams.
• Finally, I summed the difficulty ratings across all 17 games to determine the overall NFL strength of schedule for all 32 teams across the 2026 regular season.

These strength of schedule rankings are only intended to focus on two factors: opponent strength and location (home-field advantage). They are not meant to include factors such as short rest, travel, bye weeks, altitude, or any of the other non-opponent, non-venue factors that impact strength of schedule. Those are all incorporated into our annual NFL Fatigue Index, which we'll release later this summer after analyzing the full schedule.

➡️ See our full breakdown of the NFL schedule & key dates for the 2026-27 season.

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