🏈 Will Mike Vrabel be the Patriots Coach in Week 1? Predictions & Scandal Fallout

One of the biggest stories of the NFL offseason has been the rumors swirling around New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel and Dianna Russini, a now-former NFL reporter for The Athletic. 

Photos of the pair at a hotel in Arizona, published by Page Six in early April, have led to major fallout over the last month, with some even asking, "Will Mike Vrabel be the Patriots' coach in Week 1?"

As the saga continues to play out, prediction market apps have Vrabel listed as the favorite, with a 76% chance to be New England's head coach in Week 1, while offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is a distant second (13% chance).

📊 Will Mike Vrabel be the Patriots' coach in Week 1?

📋 The leading candidates to coach New England in Week 1

Mike Vrabel (76%)

Though neither Vrabel nor Russini has confirmed reports of an affair actually taking place between the two, there's been enough reporting around the rumors, along with more published photos, that the Patriots head coach stepped away from the team during Day 3 of the 2026 NFL Draft for counseling.

However, Vrabel was reportedly back with the team that Monday, just two days later. Vrabel has also stated that he's had “difficult conversations with people I care about.” And TMZ reported last week that his wife, Jen Vrabel, was spotted wearing her wedding ring in Utah, the same weekend Vrabel was spotted there. 

The NFL has made it clear it will not be stepping in or addressing the issue any further. NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy told The Associated Press that Vrabel is not being investigated. 

In Vrabel's most recent press conference, he said, “We never want our actions to negatively affect the team. We never want to be the cause of a distraction. There are comments and questions that I’ve answered with the team and will keep those private to ourselves.”

It seems highly unlikely that Vrabel won't be on the sideline coaching the Patriots in Week 1. At this point, it would take the team, specifically owner Robert Kraft, opting to suspend his head coach for Week 1 for him not to be out there.

Backing Vrabel, even at a short "yes" price of 76¢, is the best play with this prediction market. 

Josh McDaniels (13%)

If Kraft were to suspend Vrabel for the Russini situation, it would most likely be Josh McDaniels coaching the Patriots during Week 1. 

Not only does McDaniels have a long history with New England, with him having spent 19 seasons with the organization and this being his third stint as offensive coordinator, but he's one of the most experienced head coaches on the staff - only Vrabel and offensive line coach Doug Marrone have been head coaches for more games in the NFL.

While McDaniels' tenure as a head coach with both the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders went poorly, he's been a head coach for 53 games in the NFL. 

The field of non-Patriots coaches (4%)

The field includes former Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin and former Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott. The chances of either of those two coaching New England in Week 1 are about as high as the chances of Tom Brady starting under center for the Patriots come September.

Any coach not currently on the Patriots' staff being the coach in Week 1 is as funny as Inside the NBA including Vrabel and Russini in their graphic following the Boston Celtics' elimination from the NBA playoffs.

There's an extremely minuscule chance that Vrabel won't be the head coach in Week 1, and if it's not him, the interim will almost certainly be Josh McDaniels or assistant head coach Terrell Williams (2% chance).

📸 Mike Vrabel Patriots status: How the Dianna Russini scandal impacts the market

One wrinkle to consider with the situation is that more information could theoretically come out and cause more fallout that forces the NFL or Kraft to suspend Vrabel.

This is highly unlikely, but there have been rumors of a "tell-all" interview from Russini, given that she was forced to resign from The Athletic after The Athletic/New York Times initially defended her in a statement. On top of that, Russini's husband, Kevin Goldschmidt, has also reportedly struggled with the rumors. 

"Her Husband has felt sidelined for a long time, and this controversy might be what finally pushes things to a breaking point," a source told the Daily Mail.

With seemingly zero repercussions for Vrabel, and Russini not only lost her job but also potentially dealing with struggles within her marriage, could this lead to the situation escalating?

It's worth monitoring, but for now, it seems Vrabel's counseling during Day 3 of the NFL draft was enough to resolve the situation for the Patriots.