🏈 Patriots vs. Seahawks Week 1 Odds, Picks, Prediction: How to Bet NFL Season Opener

The NFL delivered a welcome surprise on our doorsteps Wednesday night when news leaked that the Seattle Seahawks will face the New England Patriots in the NFL Kickoff Game on Wednesday, Sept. 9, at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC).

We already knew the defending champions would open the season at home on a Wednesday - a rare quirk of this year's NFL schedule release - but we didn't know the opponent. While most assumed it would be the Chicago Bears heading to Lumen Field in Week 1, NFL insider Jordan Schultz reported that Seattle will host New England in the first Super Bowl rematch to open the season in 10 years.

Below, I break down the Patriots vs. Seahawks odds for Week 1, how each team has changed since Super Bowl LX, my prediction and best bet, and some notable betting trends for the NFL opener ahead of this title rematch.

📊 Patriots vs. Seahawks odds & Week 1 betting lines: NFL Kickoff Game

Patriots vs. Seahawks odds via FanDuel as of Wednesday, May 13.

It shouldn't surprise anyone to see the Seahawks favored in this Super Bowl rematch after Seattle dominated New England in a 29-13 win when these teams met in February. It is curious, though, to see the defending champions favored by just 4.5 points.

Those odds match the closing betting line for Super Bowl LX, which was played on a neutral site. With this game at Lumen Field, that would suggest the best sports betting sites think the gap between these teams is roughly 2 points smaller than it was heading into that 16-point win for Seattle to close the season last year.

🏈 Patriots vs. Seahawks betting preview: What's changed since Super Bowl LX?

Here's a look at how both teams' rosters and coaching staffs have changed since last year to account for that shift in the betting market from before Super Bowl LX to now:

🟢 How the Seahawks have changed

The good news for Seahawks fans: Mike Macdonald is arguably the best coach in football, and the NFL's best defense should again be one of the most dominant forces in the league after ranking top 10 in DVOA history last year. The offense also returns quarterback Sam Darnold and star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who powered one of the NFL's most efficient passing games last season that helped JSN get paid this spring.

The bad news? Klint Kubiak's success calling plays for Seattle's offense last year earned him a head-coaching job in Las Vegas, and successor Brian Fleury won't have reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker at his disposal after the star running back signed with the Chiefs in the offseason. The 'Hawks also lost key defensive starters in Coby Bryant, Boye Mafe, and Riq Woolen but added reinforcements to help Macdonald's side.

🔴 How the Patriots have changed

After jumping the gun last year with a surprise Super Bowl appearance, the Patriots' front office was aggressive in the offseason - especially in building around MVP runner-up Drake Maye ahead of his third season in the pros. That includes signing Romeo Doubs (4 years, $68 million) to replace the departed Stefon Diggs, and NFL trade rumors persist into the summer with the Patriots favored to land A.J. Brown in a trade with the Eagles.

Where this team still hasn't properly invested its resources is along the offensive line, which is a concern after Drake Maye was sacked fourth-most (47) of any quarterback in the regular season before going down six times in the Super Bowl loss to Seattle. That's partly on the second-year QB's poor pocket presence in the face of pressure, but color me skeptical that'll be fixed by Week 1 if the offensive line itself doesn't improve.

🏟️ Where is the NFL season opener?

The NFL Kickoff Game is at Lumen Field in Seattle, where the Seahawks feature one of the best home-field advantages in football. They won eight of 10 games last year at home (including postseason), outscoring teams by 12.2 points per game while covering the spread by 6.7 points on average - both top-three marks in the NFL.

That's why I'm especially surprised to see this spread hasn't moved from the opening kickoff of last year's Super Bowl to the announcement of this game. I expect this line to shift toward Seattle as kickoff nears, even though the Patriots have improved along the margins entering the 2026 season opener.

🔮 Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction & best bet

See all of our NFL picks based on the latest NFL odds for the 2026 season.

🎯 Best bet: Seahawks to win by 1-13 points (+115)

I expect the Seahawks to win in this Super Bowl rematch, even if their roster on paper doesn't quite match the terrifying personnel that swallowed the Patriots whole in Santa Clara last February. Seattle's pass rush should remain one of the NFL's best in 2026, and that's alarming for New England after the way last year's matchup went in the trenches.

It's hard not to have concerns for the Seahawks' offense, though, with Kubiak and Walker gone from last year's unit that relied so heavily on the run. I'm intrigued by first-round pick Jadarian Price flanking power back Zach Charbonnet, but relying on a rookie and a recovering bruiser doesn't scream high-upside offense to me.

So I'm inclined to take the plus-money value on a reasonable win for Seattle at home, which tracks with recent history in the NFL season opener. The home team has won by 1-13 points each of the last two years and 14 of the 26 seasons since the NFL introduced the standalone season debut, and the last Super Bowl rematch to open the year ended with a 1-point win for the defending champion Broncos over the runner-up Panthers.

💵 More Patriots vs. Seahawks picks

• Patriots vs. Seahawks spread pick: Seahawks -4.5 (-105)
• Patriots vs. Seahawks moneyline pick: Seahawks -210
• Patriots vs. Seahawks total pick: Under 45.5

🏆 NFL Kickoff Game trends: History of Super Bowl rematches in Week 1

See our full breakdown of the NFL schedule & key dates for the 2026-27 season.

How do Super Bowl champions fare in Week 1?

Since the NFL Kickoff Game began in 2002, the defending Super Bowl champion has played 21 times including all but one year since 2004. The reigning champions are 16-5 overall in those matchups, including 5-2 in their last seven tries after the Eagles beat the Cowboys last year in the Week 1 opener.

How do Super Bowl champions fare in a rematch against the runner-up?

This year's Super Bowl rematch marks just the third time we've seen both finalists face off in Week 1, joining 1970 and 2016. The Broncos beat the Panthers by one point in 2016 after Carolina kicker Graham Gano missed a 50-yard field goal in the final seconds, while the Vikings got revenge on the Chiefs in a 27-10 win in 1970.

What is the Seahawks' record against the Patriots?

The Seahawks own a 12-9 record all-time against the Patriots, including 11-8 in the regular season and 1-1 in the postseason. Both of those playoff matchups came in the Super Bowl within the last 11 years: New England beat Seattle with a goal-line interception in a 28-24 thriller in 2015, and the Seahawks returned the favor with that 29-13 win in the Super Bowl last February.

The last regular-season meeting between these two teams came in Week 2 on Sept. 15, 2024, when Seattle won 23-20 in overtime at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The Seahawks have won four straight over the Patriots since their first Super Bowl matchup.

What is Mike Macdonald's record in Week 1?

Mike Macdonald is 1-1 in Week 1 as Seattle's head coach. He won his coaching debut with a 26-20 home victory over the Broncos in 2024 before losing to the 49ers in a 17-13 home defeat last year.

What is Mike Vrabel's record in Week 1?

Mike Vrabel is 2-5 in Week 1 as an NFL head coach, including 0-1 as the Patriots' coach. New England lost to the Raiders last year in a 20-13 home defeat, eventually becoming just the fourth team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl despite losing to the team that clinched the No. 1 pick.

📺 How to watch Patriots vs. Seahawks in Week 1

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET / 5:20 p.m. PT
• Location: Lumen Field (Seattle)
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock