🏈 NFL First Coach Fired Odds 2026: Mike Vrabel & Hot Seat Predictions

There's always plenty of buzz around which coaches lead the NFL's first-coach-fired odds with the hottest seats. But this year has some extra juiciness to it with New England Patriots bench boss Mike Vrabel immersed in a scandal involving NFL reporter Dianna Russini.

While he did lead New England to the Super Bowl this past season, one of the biggest questions of the offseason is: Will Mike Vrabel be the Patriots' coach in Week 1? 

As more photos and information about Vrabel and Russini's relationship come out, he is by far the biggest favorite at our prediction market apps to be out (fired or resigns) before the regular season even starts.

⏱️ NFL first coach fired: Will any coach be out before September?

📰 The Mike Vrabel situation: Scandal vs. Reality

Will Mike Vrabel be out before September?

Although this story seems to have no end, there's been little real noise that the Patriots would move on from Vrabel. And his long history with owner Robert Kraft should only ensure his job security, as long as he chooses to remain the head coach.

The NFL has also already made it clear it does not plan to take any action against him. NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy told The Associated Press that Vrabel is not being investigated.

That means, the only way Vrabel would be out before September would be if he opts to resign, or more information comes out that justifies the NFL looking into the scandal. However, Vrabel seems to have full support from the franchise and has already apologized to his team.

In Vrabel's most recent press conference, he said, “We never want our actions to negatively affect the team. We never want to be the cause of a distraction. There are comments and questions that I’ve answered with the team and will keep those private to ourselves.”

It would be historic for a coach who just led his team to a Super Bowl berth to step down or be fired at this point in the NFL calendar.

🔥 The 3 hottest seats in the NFL

Dan Quinn (Washington Commanders)

• Career record: 60-59
• Commanders record: 17-17
• 2025 record: 5-12
• Franchise's number of full-time head coaches since 2000: Nine

The hoopla around the Washington Commanders' first season under Dan Quinn has dissipated after the team struggled to follow up its NFC Championship appearance with a competent season. 

While Jayden Daniels' injuries didn't help the cause, the firing of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury a year after he was a hot name for head coaching openings was telling. With Kingsbury as the scapegoat for the 2025 season, Quinn's defense's improvement will be imperative for him to remain in DC.

Commanders general manager Adam Peters just landed Quinn linebacker Sonny Styles in the 2026 NFL Draft, putting the pressure on the defensive-minded head coach to refine one of the NFL's worst defenses.

Although there's more stability with Washington since Josh Harris purchased the team from Daniel Snyder, it's getting late early for Quinn. He won't be gone before September, obviously, but I have a hard time seeing him returning to the nation's capital in 2027.

Aaron Glenn (New York Jets)

• Career record: 3-14
• 2025 record: 3-14
• Franchise's number of full-time head coaches since 2000: Eight

It's hard to gauge exactly how hot Aaron Glenn's seat is following a draft that was one of the strongest in the league. If Glenn can get the New York Jets to six wins this season, would that be enough to keep him? Or does general manager Darren Mougey view him as a placeholder at this point?

On paper, the Jets are in great shape if Geno Smith can play closer to what we saw in 2024 with the Seattle Seahawks than what he showed last year in a dysfunctional Las Vegas Raiders offense. Smith has talent around him, too, with first-round picks Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. joining an offense that has two Pro Bowl playmakers (Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson) and a talented pair of offensive tackles.

Tie that in with New York improving its defense by drafting David Bailey and D'Angelo Ponds after acquiring several key veterans, including Demario Davis and Minkah Fitzpatrick, and the Jets should be noticeably better. But if they aren't, Woody Johnson could force Mougey to move on.

I lean toward Glenn returning in 2027, and his seat not being as hot as it seemed a few months ago. But one thing is clear: Glenn needs to do a better job managing the media this season, because he did himself no favors last year when New York was struggling. 

Zac Taylor (Cincinnati Bengals)

• Career record: 52-63
• 2025 record: 6-11
• Franchise's number of full-time head coaches since 2000: Three

The Cincinnati Bengals aren't quite the mom and pop shop they once were as they continue to move toward a more traditional NFL front office structure. With that said, owner Mike Brown kept Marvin Lewis as head coach for 16 seasons, despite an 0-7 record in the NFL playoffs.

But the old Bengals would have never flipped the 10th overall pick for three-time Pro Bowler Dexter Lawrence, so maybe director of player personnel Duke Tobin (the de facto general manager) has more power now than ever before.

That means there should be more pressure on Zac Taylor now than ever before. Taylor has missed the playoffs three straight seasons, and a fourth miss should lead to his firing (Lewis never missed the playoffs more than three years in a row). 

Cincinnati's trade for Lawrence signals they're going all in on winning now, and if they don't reach the postseason, Joe Burrow's camp could start thinking about the old Carson Palmer move. Brown and Tobin would need a scapegoat at that point, and Taylor is primed to be blamed.

💤 The sleeper to be fired first

Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

• Career record: 61-74
• Buccaneers record: 35-33
• 2025 record: 8-9
• Franchise's number of full-time head coaches since 2000: Eight

It's been a nice second act in the Sunshine State for Todd Bowles' head coaching career, but in a weak NFC South, Jason Licht and the Glazer family must be considering moving on if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers don't make a noticeable leap in his fifth year leading the team.

Bowles has two losing seasons in four years as head coach in Tampa, and just a 1-3 record in the playoffs. The Glazers once fired Tony Dungy with a 2-4 record in the playoffs, despite turning the Bucs around with just one losing record in six years.

Luckily for Bowles, Licht's draft should bolster his defense with players like Rueben Bain Jr., Josiah Trotter, and Keionte Scott poised to make an impact early. And if Baker Mayfield is healthy, he's proven to be one of the best QBs to don the pewter and red. 

Still, the Glazer family isn't afraid to move on from a coach when a team gets stagnant, and they haven't been afraid to make splashy hires (Dungy, Jon Gruden, Bruce Arians). Keeping Bowles after another eight to 10-win season that ends with an early playoff exit is anything but splashy. 

🔍 The verdict: Why a pre-September firing/resignation is a "No" trade

This market is completely tied to the idea that Vrabel will either resign or be fired before September. Not only do I not expect that to happen, but recent NFL history says we won't have our first head coach out of a job until October.

Over the last decade, there have been just two coaching cycles where the first head coach wasn't out until December. But for eight straight years, by firing or resignation, a sitting head coach has been out of a job by the end of October.

Since 2020, there's been an average of 7.3 coaches per cycle that have been fired or resigned, and I'd guess we have no fewer than seven again this year. It looks like one of Quinn, Glenn, Taylor, Bowles, or Nick Sirianni will go first, but it won't be until October. 

*Gruden resigned following the email scandal, with Urban Meyer being the first coach fired (Dec. 16, 2021)