⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, May 11
We're dealing with just a six-game schedule tonight around MLB, but there are still chances to capitalize on home run power.
That includes tabbing Junior Caminero as part of my home run predictions today, and he's already gone deep 11 times after a career-best 45 homers last season. Any night when Roki Sasaki is on the mound has also oddly become a great chance to roll with a masher from the Dodgers' opposition, and the Giants' Casey Schmitt is rising fast.
He's featured in my MLB home run picks too, as is Jake Burger.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 11
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero home run (+340 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.68u | Has put up a .500 batting average against splitters. |
| Casey Schmitt home run (+516 via DraftKings | 0.20u β 1u | OPS has risen from .706 last year to .843 now. |
| Jake Burger home run (+529 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1.1u | Boasts a 49.5% hard-hit rate. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.78 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+340)
Junior Caminero's most lethal weapon is bat speed, and it's nearly unmatched while sitting in the 100th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. That allows him to react quickly, and it's contributed to the third baseman's .503 expected slugging.
He'll take that tonight against Kevin Gausman, who's been stellar and boasts one of MLB's most imposing fastball-splitter combinations. But Caminero is seeing splitters well this year while putting up a 60% hard-hit rate against that offering. He's also clubbed two home runs in his last three games.
📡 SBR Edge: Launching napalm
Caminero is tied for the third-highest max exit velocity leaguewide while sitting at 116.9.
π₯ More home run picks today
Casey Schmitt to hit a home run (+500)
On one side tonight during an NL West rivalry will be the Giants' Schmitt, who's taking off early in his age-27 season. His OPS has climbed from .706 to .843, and on May 11 the first baseman's six dingers already put him halfway to his total from all of last season.
Schmitt's hard-hit rate has also risen from 43.8 to 47.9, and both his barrel rate and expected slugging sit in the 89th percentile.
Then on the other side is the Dodgers' Roki Sasaki, who has been surprisingly horrendous. His expected ERA is at 5.74, and Sasaki's four-seamer is getting walloped to the tune of a .727 slugging percentage. His HR/9 sits at a mammoth 2.5 as well.
🤑 More MLB props
Looking for six simple outs? Our Dustin Saracini has you covered with his best NRFI bets today.
Jake Burger to hit a home run (+529)
Jake Burger's struggles have been immense, including a grisly .158/.200/.263 slash line over the past two weeks. But there are still reasons for encouragement and a turnaround when we look under the surface.
Burger is hitting the ball with authority while producing a 49.5% hard-hit rate, which rests in the 86th percentile leaguewide. Combine that with his 76th percentile bat speed, and there's a path for him to get back to what he's always been. He's produced three 25-plus home run seasons with that approach, all while putting up a career .244 batting average.
He'll get to face Michael Soroka for much of this evening, whose barrel rate allowed is in only the 13th percentile.
π Best home run parlay picks today
A shorter slate on a travel day around MLB increases the difficulty of finding confident long-ball picks. But I've still managed to land on a handful of opportunities to exploit appealing matchups against weak starters (Sasaki), or a pitch the slugger in question thrives against (Caminero vs. Gausman).
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Junior Caminero home run (+340)
- Casey Schmitt home run (+516)
- Jake Burger home run (+529)
Best odds: +16948 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 3.4u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-81-0 | -10.48 units β | -23.8% β |
| Home run picks | 9-48-0 | -3.63 units β | -28.8% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-12 | -0.84 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
As always, I'm staying disciplined with my 0.20-unit wagers across the board here, especially given the longer odds aside from Caminero. However, if you want to embrace just a little bravery and sprinkle a touch more, go with Schmitt. Though please be mindful of Bankroll management.
Sasaki has given up three-plus earned runs in four of his past five outings. It's a stretch when he's also remarkably allowed eight home runs.
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