⚾ Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Monday, May 11
📡 SBR Edge: Best NRFI Bets Today for Monday (May 11)
We have absolutely heated up and are on a 16-5 run over our last 11 days after winning our two-unit play last week - let's stay hot and continue cashing on this fine Monday. We're targeting the Rays vs. Blue Jays and Diamondbacks vs. Rangers to get us six simple outs. Let's continue to throw up zeroes this season, shall we?
ā¾ Best NRFI bets today: May 11
See all of our expertsā MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds. Odds via FanDuel.
| ā¾ NRFI pick | šµ Units | š Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Rays vs. Blue Jays NRFI (-150) | 2u ā 1.33u | Blue Jays hit just .217 AVG vs. Rasmussen |
| Diamondbacks vs. Rangers NRFI (-150) | 1u -> 0.66u | Diamondbacks own just a .213 xBA vs. Eovaldi |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 1.99 units
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š° Best NRFI bets today for Monday
Rays vs. Blue Jays NRFI (-150) - 7:07 p.m. ET
- Drew Rasmussen (2.95 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman (3.09 ERA)
- NRFI records: Rays (22-17) vs. Blue Jays (20-20)
Here's a case where two large sample sizes give us the confidence we need to hit yet another two-unit wager. Across 102 plate appearances, Gausman is striking this Rays lineup up at a 22.5% rate; my only concern is Yandy Diaz, who's hitting .467 (.288 xBA) against him. If we get past the projected four-hitter, we're fine. On the other side, George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are a combined 8-for-42 against Rasmussen, which should be enough to get us the six outs we need. Let's lock this one in.
🤑 More MLB player props for Monday
Dive into Sean Tomlinson's home run predictions for Monday if you're looking to cash in on some long balls today.
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers NRFI (-150) - 8:05p.m. ET
- Michael Soroka (4.14 ERA) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (4.15 ERA)
- NRFI records: Diamondbacks (17-22) vs. Rangers (15-25)
Another NRFI, another pitching matchup featuring a sample size we love to see. Soroka has found another gear this year, owning a 2.60 ERA before a blowup start inflated his numbers. I like a bounce-back performance from him, and with Corey Seager 0-for-4 against the Canadian in his career, I'm confident he'll get us three. Eovaldi has been able to calm the bats of the DBacks down lifetime against this lineup, limiting them to a .213 xBA, which includes some awful numbers from Ketel Marte, who's 1-for-11 against him. Let's fire this up as part of our best NRFI bets today.
šµ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-23 | +8.02 units |
| NRFI picks | 23-21 | +6.57 units |
š” How I'm betting NRFI picks today (May 11)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
No matter the day, I look at how a pitcher matches up specifically to the lineup he's taking on. What's their expected batting average against him? What's their strikeout rate? What's each team's NRFI record? More specifically, how do the top three batters fare against a specific pitcher? These are all thoughts that need to run through your mind before placing a high-variance bet like a NRFI, and slide your units accordingly.
ā NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.,
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