MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Friday, June 26
My home run predictions today include Victor Bericoto, Manny Machado, and Nick Kurtz.
Bericoto and Kurtz are facing pitchers they should be able to homer against, while Machado is playing his former team - a situation he has done well in during recent seasons.
My MLB home run picks have been profitable this year, so we're looking to stay in the black with a +900 best bet on a young slugger.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds June 26
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Bericoto Over 0.5 home runs (+900 via FanDuel) | 0.17u β 1.5u | Bericoto is slugging .600 against fastballs, Lopez's go-to pitch vs. right-handed hitters. |
| Manny Machado Over 0.5 home runs (+575 via DraftKings) | 0.26u β 1.5u | Machado has hit 11 home runs over his last 40 games vs. the Dodgers. |
| Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 home runs (+349 via DraftKings) | 0.43u β 1.5u | Kurtz is slugging .569 with 13 HRs vs. RHP this season. |
Total wagered: 0.86 units | Max profit: 4.5 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Victor Bericoto (+900)
If you haven't heard of Bericoto yet, good - that's why we're getting +900 on him tonight.
The rookie outfielder has just six hits this season, but three of them have been home runs. He's slugging .600 against fastballs so far, and 65% of Reynaldo Lopez's pitches to right-handed hitters this season have been fastballs.
Bericoto's +900 odds imply just a 10% probability that he homers tonight, and that's too low for the Giants rookie, who has gone yard in three of his last seven games.
- Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Back Big Fly Bericoto
Bericoto has hit a home run in each of his last two games, once against a four-seam fastball and once against a slider. Those two pitches account for 97% of Lopez's offerings against right-handed hitters this season.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Manny Machado (+575)
Machado is having a down year, but he still leads the Padres with 14 home runs this season. This looks like what we're going to see from Machado moving forward - a low batting average but still high-end power when he connects.
One situation that has been good for Machado in recent seasons is facing his former team, the Dodgers. He has hit 11 home runs over his last 40 games against Los Angeles, including a two-run shot in San Diego during their most recent series from May 18-20.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Apple TV
Home run pick: Nick Kurtz (+349)
Not only does Kurtz rank eighth in MLB in barrels per batted-ball event at 18.3%, but he has excelled against right-handed pitching. He's slugging .569 against righties this season (compared to .466 against lefties).
He's hit nine homers across 22 games in June and has hit the ball hard against Walbert Urena, recording two doubles in just six career at-bats. Kurtz Over 0.5 home runs is +349 at DraftKings - the best line among the top sports betting sites - but there's still value in playing +340 at FanDuel if you don't have access to a DK account.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
💰️ More MLB expert picks today
Our Dustin Saracini breaks down Cubs vs. Brewers in his best NRFIs today.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Victor Bericoto (+900)
- Manny Machado (+520)
- Nick Kurtz (+340)
Best odds: +27180 via FanDuel (0.05u -> 13.59u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-7-2 | +1.12 units β | 6.7% β |
| Player props | 4-4-1 | +2.98 units β | 35.1% β |
| Moneylines | 0-1-1 | -1.89 units β | -45.3% β |
| Game props | 1-1 | +0.13 units β | 3.2% β |
| Parlays | 0-1 | -0.1 units β | -100% β |
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