Dodgers vs. Padres Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 26)
RHP Roki Sasaki and RHP Walker Buehler square off today in the first game of a three-game set as we break down the Dodgers vs. Padres win probability.
The Dodgers have a 56% win expectancy on prediction market apps, but I like the Padres to pull off the upset after sweeping the Braves in three games. First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 9:45 p.m. ET (Apple TV).
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🏆 Who will win Dodgers vs. Padres? Live MLB win probability
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The Dodgers have a projected 56% win expectancy, and over $350,000 has already been traded in this market. L.A. originally opened at a 52% win probability on Tuesday, but traders have since bought Yes contracts on the Dodgers after their three-game sweep of the Twins in Minneapolis. Yes contracts on L.A. are available at 58¢, with over $300,000 in liquidity at that price.
The Dodgers are coming off a 4-3 win over the Twins. They had just a 35.9% win probability, per ESPN Analytics, trailing 3-1 in the second inning. However, two-way player Shohei Ohtani (2-for-5, 1 RBI) and third baseman Max Muncy (2-for-4, 1 RBI) each singled in a run in the ensuing frame, and outfielder Alex Call (0-for-3, 1 RBI) hit a go-ahead sac fly to cap a three-run inning.
The Padres' last outing was a 5-2 win over the Braves in San Diego. First baseman Ty France (2-for-3, 2 RBIs) hit a solo shot in the third inning, and shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2-for-4, 1 RBI) singled in a run in the fifth to extend the Padres' lead to 3-0. San Diego is nine games back of the division-leading Dodgers in the NL West.
My prediction: Padres win (44¢). Give me Buehler facing his former team. Not only has he been above average lately - allowing one earned run in each of his last four starts - but the Dodgers' hitters haven't been that great, scoring four or fewer runs in four of their last five games.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Dodgers vs. Padres?
| Hitter | Home run probability | Yes price |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 25% | 25¢ |
| Freddie Freeman | 15% | 15¢ |
| Manny Machado | 14% | 14¢ |
| Jackson Merrill | 14% | 14¢ |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 14% | 14¢ |
| Mookie Betts | 12% | 12¢ |
| Kyle Tucker | 12% | 12¢ |
No surprise here, but Ohtani has the highest probability (25%) of hitting a home run today. Buehler has allowed just one home run over his last six starts, but this is the price you usually see on Ohtani (25¢), as traders love buying Yes contracts on him.
Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman has the second-highest probability at 15%, another popular contract, as he has homered in three of his last 10 games. Padres third baseman Manny Machado and outfielders Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. are next at 14%. More than $26,000 in volume has already cleared in this market.
My prediction: Manny Machado to hit a home run (14¢). While Machado is batting just .184, his power hasn't been affected, with 14 home runs on the season. He tends to also play better against his former team, as he has 11 homers against the Dodgers in the last 40 head-to-head meetings. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Dodgers vs. Padres?
Over $8,000 in volume has been traded in the first-inning run market. While that may not sound like a lot compared to the Dodgers-Padres win market, it's about triple what you would usually see in a first-inning market five to six hours before first pitch.
The market is projecting a 47% chance of a first-inning run. If you'd like to buy Yes contracts (i.e., the YRFI) at 48¢, you can instantly get just over $300 filled. However, at 49¢, you can get more than $1,000 filled immediately, and there's over $27,000 in liquidity at 50¢.
The Dodgers have had a run scored in the first inning in 49% of their games, while the Padres have seen a first-inning run in 34% of their contests. Sasaki has not given up a first-inning run in three of his last four starts, while Buehler has not allowed one in five straight.
My prediction: Yes run in the first inning (48¢). I don't like Sasaki's chances of holding San Diego scoreless in the first inning after it put up 12 runs in its final two games against the Braves. However, I wouldn't pay more than 50¢ for this contract. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFIs today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.
📊 Dodgers vs. Padres win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 56% | 52% | ↑ 4% |
| Padres | 44% | 48% | ↓ 4% |
📺 How to watch Dodgers vs. Padres
- Date: Friday, June 26
- First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
- Streaming: Apple TV
- Dodgers starter: Roki Sasaki (3-4, 4.76 ERA)
- Padres starter: Walker Buehler (4-3, 3.96 ERA)
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