Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, June 26

My Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction backs the home underdogs in what is Will Warren’s first start against Boston this season. In the process, I look for a more efficient outing from Payton Tolle and for him to get his control issues in order. I also expect the Red Sox to overcome a home run from a Bronx Bomber with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Yankees vs. Red Sox picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Red Sox?

Entering yesterday’s series opener, the Red Sox were playing at a 110-loss pace in home games. But I expect Tolle’s craftiness will keep the Yankees' lineup off balance enough to pull out a victory.

Score prediction: Red Sox 5, Yankees 4

💰 Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction & best bet

Red Sox ML (+100)

In Payton Tolle’s first start of the season, he struck out a season-high 11 Yankees en route to a three-hit quality start. So while New York has won seven of its last nine games against Boston and are 12-3 in Will Warren’s 15 starts, this is a great value play.

Warren made his only career start at Fenway Park last September, and was lit up for 10 hits and six earned runs over five innings, while recording just two strikeouts. He has also tied a season-high with eight hits allowed in each of his last two starts.

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Red Sox player prop bet

Payton Tolle Under 1.5 walks (-135)

Payton Tolle has issued multiple walks in five of his last six starts. But I’m bucking that trend and backing the Under on his walks tonight, even though he faces a Yankees lineup that entered the series ranked ninth in walk rate against left-handed pitching (9.9%).

Tolle was dialed in under much tougher conditions in his April start against the Yankees, issuing just one walk. He threw 63 of his 93 pitches for strikes in that outing, and now does not have to deal with a lineup that had four starters that day (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Trent Grisham Jr., and Ryan McMahon) all now on the IL.

Tolle has recorded at least 18 outs in five of his last seven starts. If he goes Over his projected outs recorded total again (ODDS), I expect it to be because he limited his walks and turned in an economical outing.

💣 Yankees vs. Red Sox home run prediction

Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+449)

Paul Goldschmidt entered the series with an MLB best 257 wRC+ against southpaws, with a wide gap between him and the second-best hitter in that metric (Miguel Vargas, 202). Goldschmidt also entered leading the league with a .816 slugging percentage and .408 ISO against southpaws, and was ninth in BABIP (.426). 

Goldschmidt’s eight home runs in June are tied for the second-most in a single month by a player age 38 or older in Yankees franchise history (one behind Alex Rodriguez from 2015). His  1.000 slugging percentage against four-seam fastballs is second-highest in the Majors (min. 60 PA ending on that pitch), while his .318 average against non-fastballs was eighth-best (min. 75 PA ending on non-fastballs).

🚀 Yankees vs. Red Sox same-game parlay

The first two legs of this same-game parlay accomplish the same goal of helping the Red Sox win outright as underdogs. To give the SGP more of a chance of cashing, I am swapping Goldschmidt's home run wager for him to go Over his total bases prop, which he has done in eight of his last 11 games started.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Red Sox: MLB strategy

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New York's 12-3 record in Warren's 15 starts made it tempting to back Boston getting +1.5 runs, which would give some flexibility if it doesn't win outright. I wouldn't put anyone off that wager, especially since three of the Yankees' wins in Warren's starts have been by one run.

My Goldschmidt home run wagers is also made with much more confidence after realizing he is one of only four players with multiple home runs in a game off of Tarik Skubal (he took him deep twice on Wednesday), and is the only one to do so twice.

📊 Live Yankees vs. Red Sox odds

There is a wide gap in New York's moneyline odds at the best sports betting sites, as the Yankees range from a -112 favorite at FanDuel to -127 (55.95% implied odds) at bet365. There has only been slight movement at BetMGM and DraftKings thus far, but it has gone in Boston's favor. 

No total on today's slate has a more egregious betting split than this one, with early wagers 3/1 in favor of the Over. So while the top sports betting sites are in agreement with an O/U of 8.5 across the board, it wouldn't be a surprise to see some move to 9 before first pitch.

📈 Yankees vs. Red Sox betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Red Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Red Sox

• Date: Friday, June 26
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Will Warren (7-2, 3.45 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Payton Tolle (3-5, 3.08 ERA)