Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, June 26

The Milwaukee Brewers’ 6.5-game lead in the National League Central is the second-biggest division lead in the Majors, and they look to widen that gap when opening up a three-game home series against the Chicago Cubs. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 7:45 p.m. ET (Apple TV), and features a matchup on the rubber between Colin Rea and Jacob Misiorowski. The Brewers are -275 betting favorites.

My Cubs vs. Brewers prediction eschews Milwaukee’s steep moneyline odds and sides with the Under with the NL Cy Young Award favorite on the mound. That means I’m selling high on Dansby Swanson after his historic series against the Mets, and am backing a Brewers slugger to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Cubs vs. Brewers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.22 units

🏆 Who will win Cubs vs. Brewers?

Milwaukee is amid a 10-game winning streak against NL Central opponents, with a plus-33 run differential in that span. That includes a road sweep of the Cubs with wins by three or more runs in each game, so I expect the Brewers to be victorious again.

Score prediction: Brewers 5, Cubs 1

💰 Cubs vs. Brewers prediction & best bet

Under 7.5 (-115)

Jacob Misiorowski took control of the NL Cy Young Award futures leaderboard after a stretch from May 1 to June 12 where he pitched to a 0.17 ERA. That was the lowest ERA in an eight-start span (excluding openers) since 1913. Overall, Misiorowski leads MLB in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, and OBA.

Milwaukee swept the Reds to make it 18 series wins in its last 21 against its division rivals. But it wasn’t like the Brewers tore the cover off the baseball, with zero hits with runners in scoring position until the 26th of those 27 innings played.

🔥 Best Cubs vs. Brewers player prop bet

Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 hits (-139)

Dansby Swanson inserted himself in the record books in the last series against the Mets. His seven-RBI performance was tied for the most in a single game by a Cubs shortstop since 1920 (which also tied his career-high). Overall, Swanson had 15 RBI in the series, which were the most in a single series since 1920 in Cubs franchise history (when RBI became an official statistic).

I'm not going to let a hot series against one of the NL’s worst teams cloud my judgement in this matchup against Misiorowski. After all, Swanson nearly matched his RBI total from the previous 51 games (16). 

Misiorowski has allowed a .184 OBA to right-handed batters. And given Swanson’s .233 xBA against fastballs, I do not expect him to catch up to Misiorowski’s heat, after he threw 54 pitches of 100-plus mph and 85 pitches of 90-plus mph in his last start.

💣 Cubs vs. Brewers home run prediction

William Contreras to hit a home run (+650)

The Brewers offense ranks third in the Majors in runs per game despite ranking just 28th in home runs. But no one has been able to take Misiorowski deep of late, and that has me content to back a red-hot Brewers slugger to go yard.

William Contreras had eight hits in 15 at-bats with two home runs and five RBI over the team’s four-game winning streak. He is one of four Brewers batters with at least eight home runs, two of which have come within the last four games. His 81st percentile xSLG and 94th percentile squared up percentage make him a great candidate for positive regression while searching for a fifth straight season of 17-plus home runs.

🚀 Cubs vs. Brewers same-game parlay

It was difficult finding Jacob Misiorowski player props that were able to be used in this same-game parlay given that I'm backing the full-game Under. So while William Contreras to record a hit somewhat contradicts the Under, there are plenty of ways he can produce without lighting up the scoreboard. Contreras has three multi-hit games in the last five.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Cubs vs. Brewers: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Milwaukee is as high as a -294 moneyline favorite (carrying a 74.62% implied probability), which is certainly out of my price range. And with the Brewers still juiced as high as -132 (would return 0.76 units in profit on a 1-unit wager), it made more financial sense to back the Under, which has cashed so often in Misiorowski's starts. The righty is on pace for an historic season, with his 1.68 FIP prior to his last start being on pace to rank 15th all-time being one example.

📊 Live Cubs vs. Brewers odds

Milwaukee's steep moneyline odds which range from -270 to -294 among the best sports betting sites are clearly too steep for many bettors, as the big underdog Cubs are attracting 59% of the early wagers. But that hasn't done much to move the line in their favor, as BetMGM even drifted out to -285 from an opening number of -275 before returning back to its original odds. That suggests that the majority of Cubs moneyline wagers are of the smaller variety from public bettors. 

FanDuel was the only top sports betting site to open with an O/U of 8 runs, but quickly aligned with the rest of the market at 7.5. Sixty-one percent of the wagers have backed the Under. 

📈 Cubs vs. Brewers betting trends

🚑 Cubs vs. Brewers injuries

📺 How to watch Cubs vs. Brewers

• Date: Friday, June 26
• First pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wis.)
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Cubs starter: Colin Rea (5-5, 4.99 ERA)
• Brewers starter: Jacob Misiorowski (8-3, 1.45 ERA)