🏀 NBA Player Props Today: NBA Playoffs Best Bets & Picks for Monday, May 11
📡 SBR Edge: LeBron Scores 23 in L.A.
My NBA player props today feature Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers made (-140), as he has attempted 8+ three-pointers in four of his last five games. My second NBA best bet is LeBron James Over 22.5 points (-110). He has scored 23+ points in four of his last five outings. I wrap up my top NBA picks with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 points (-104), as he has scored 28 or fewer points in five straight matchups against the Lakers.
🏀 Best NBA player props today: May 11
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers made | -140 via BetMGM | 1.4u -> 1u | Has attempted 8+ 3PT in 4 of his last 5 games |
| LeBron James Over 22.5 points | -110 via BetMGM | 1.1u -> 1u | Has scored 23+ points in 4 of his last 5 games |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 points | -104 via FanDuel | 1.04u -> 1u | Has scored 28 or fewer points in 5 straight games vs. LAL |
Total wagered: 3.54 units | Max profit: 3 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet today
The Pistons have the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers made (-140) at Cavaliers
I'm surprised this line isn't higher, as Robinson has attempted eight or more 3-pointers in four of his last five games.
He's hitting 58.3% of his attempts from beyond the arc in this series, and while that likely isn't sustainable, he shot 41% during the regular season, so eight or more 3-point attempts should still cash this bet.
He has hit this prop in all three games of the series. BetMGM lists Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers made at -140, but I'd play this up to -165 on the best sports betting sites.
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
LeBron James Over 22.5 points (-110) vs. Thunder
As a lifelong Lakers fan, I have zero confidence in L.A. coming back in this series; however, we should expect 100% from James today in a potential elimination game.
He has scored 23 or more points in four of his last five games, attempting 17 or more shots in each outing. Entering Game 3, James was shooting 60% from the field in this series, including 40% from beyond the arc. Don't expect him to go out quietly today.
James Over 22.5 points is -110 at BetMGM, but I would play this up to -130 on the best NBA betting sites.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 points (-104) at Lakers
I'm not going to stop betting Gilgeous-Alexander's Under against the Lakers, even though they double-teamed him less in Game 3. He has scored 28 or fewer points in each of his last five meetings with L.A.
Additionally, the referees are starting to allow more physical play - Donovan Mitchell complained about this earlier in the conference semifinals - so Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging just 6.3 free-throw attempts per game (down from 12.3 in the first round). His Under 28.5 points is -104 at FanDuel, but I'd play this up to -120 on the best sports betting apps.
🚀 Best NBA parlay picks today
Robinson's Over on 3-pointers is negatively correlated with Cavaliers -3.5, but with such a short spread, there's a solid chance that both of these bets can hit again for a second straight game. DraftKings offers +410 on this parlay - the highest odds among the best sportsbooks - but that payout is too high.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet today
- Cavaliers -3.5
- Duncan Robinson 4+ three-pointers
Best odds: +410 via DraftKings (0.24u -> 1u)
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 179-189-4 | -3.27 units ❌ | -0.9% ❌ |
| Player props | 155-131-4 | -5.82 units ❌ | -1.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 20-53 | +3.44 units ✅ | 15.7% ✅ |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units ❌ | -13.1% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 67-59 | +13.77 units ✅ | 13.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 56-32 | +13.71 units ✅ | 16% ✅ |
| Parlays | 12-26 | +2.45 units ✅ | 23% ✅ |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units ❌ | -52.5% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props today
As I've said throughout these playoffs, being contrarian is something you want to avoid right now. What does being contrarian get you? Three straight losses on the 76ers' spread? Back-to-back losses on the Lakers' spread? These playoffs have been very predictable - with the exception of the Celtics and Nuggets being eliminated - so that's why I'm backing three player props that have been profitable lately.
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