🏈 Who is the Next Fernando Mendoza? The Hidden Gem of the 2027 NFL Draft

This time last year, Fernando Mendoza was a little-known Cal transfer set to take over as Indiana's new starting QB. Fast forward a year, and the former 22nd-ranked transfer is a national championship and Heisman winner who was just selected No. 1 by the Las Vegas Raiders in the NFL draft.

So, who is the next Fernando Mendoza? Twelve months ago, Mendoza didn't even have odds to be the No. 1 pick, and while the 2027 NFL Draft odds are led by Texas' Arch Manning, who is the real deal, there's plenty of time for other QBs to emerge as potential franchise saviors. 

Leading the way as my best bet to make a Mendoza-like leap this season is another large Big Ten QB, Minnesota's Drake Lindsey.

🧪 The Mendoza formula: Identifying the 2027 NFL Draft's next riser

Mendoza's stats at Cal the season before his breakout campaign at Indiana that elevated him to the No. 1 pick. Lindsey's stats at Minnesota in his first season as a starter in 2025.

🤫 Why Drake Lindsey is the 2027 NFL Draft’s best-kept secret

My way-too-early 2027 NFL mock draft has Lindsey going 10th overall to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Slept on from the beginning

The similarities between Mendoza and Lindsey date back to their high school recruitments. Like Mendoza, Lindsey was an under-recruited prospect out of high school whose in-state program passed on him.

Mendoza, who grew up in Miami, was the 134th-ranked QB in the 2022 recruiting class and didn't receive a scholarship offer from the Hurricanes. He nearly headed to Yale before a last-minute FBS offer from Cal. Lindsey being passed on by his in-state school was an even tougher look, with the Fayetteville, Ark. native's father, grandfather, uncle, and cousin all playing college football at Arkansas.

Instead of following in his family's footsteps and becoming a Razorback, the 23rd-ranked QB in the 2024 class headed north to Minnesota, where he redshirted his freshman year before taking over as PJ Fleck's starter under center last season.

Year 1 flashes

While the numbers Lindsey put up in his redshirt freshman season don't leap off the page, his arm talent certainly jumps off the tape. He has the type of arm Uncle Rico claimed to have, the type of howitzer capable of throwing the pigskin a quarter mile.

Though a strong arm doesn't count for everything, when you see a 6-foot-5, 230-pound 20-year-old ripping deep outs, play-action seam shots, and driving the ball into tight windows on digs, it's hard not to imagine what he could be if he continues to develop.

Beyond the arm, Lindsey also plays in a more "real" offense than many college quarterbacks these days. He's frequently under center, you get to see him taking three and five-step drops, and some of his best plays come on true play-action passes. That's rare in the RPO, spread-heavy world of college football.

Lindsey is a bit of a throwback. He's that big, old-school pocket passer with all the arm you could want, capable of making every throw on the field. The type of player a GM falls in love with and spends major draft capital on, like a Jeff George or Drew Bledsoe, or, for a more recent high-end comparison, Ben Roethlisberger.

Sophomore stardom?

At his best (Northwestern, Rutgers, Cal, Michigan State games), Lindsey is making big-boy throws, both over the middle and outside the hashes. He's consistently showcasing his intermediate and deep ball placement and thriving on play-action passes. His ability to maneuver muddy pockets, unfazed by the rush, and make full-armed throws in tight quarters also shines.

At his worst (Iowa, Ohio State games), Lindsey forces passes into conflict when he can't find quick answers while under duress. He's unable to lean on high-end athleticism to make plays with his legs and adds virtually nothing as a scrambler (he had just five scramble runs in 2025), which could scare NFL teams off as they increasingly value playmaking mobility at the position.

And unlike Mendoza during his breakout season with Indiana, Lindsey won't be surrounded by NFL talent this year. While Minnesota should be able to push for 8-plus wins again, without Ohio State or Oregon on its schedule, its leading returning receivers (Jalen Smith and Javon Tracy) combined for just 873 yards and 10 touchdowns last season.

Still, doing what he did in a "pro-style" offense as a redshirt freshman, I'm completely bought in on Lindsey, and the continuity on this Minnesota team should count for something. The Golden Gophers' offense is No. 10 nationally in returning production.

Whether it's in 2027, 2028, or the 2029 NFL Draft, I think he's on a top-10 pick trajectory and could even push to be the No. 1 pick if he continues to develop. 

📈 Monitoring the market: When will Drake Lindsey get No. 1 pick odds?

At this time last year, when I highlighted Mendoza as the best long shot to be the No. 1 pick in my breakdown of the 2026 NFL Draft odds and predictions, he didn't have odds to be the first overall selection. However, it wasn't a long wait for his name to pop up on the board.

By late May/early June, Mendoza was available to bet at our best sports betting sites, with odds as long as +20000. And with prominent NFL draftniks like Nate Tice and Cory Kinnan already stumping for Lindsey as a top QB prospect, I'd expect him to be available to bet well before August.

He'll likely have similar odds to Mendoza when he's finally on the NFL draft oddsboard - I'd guess no shorter than +10000 - with Manning being such a heavy favorite to be the No. 1 pick. Manning was +200 to be the top selection in the 2026 NFL Draft at this time last year, and has even shorter odds (+165) to hear his name called first in 2027.

This time around, though, Manning's short odds are deserved. After a bumpy start last season, he was among the best QBs in the nation over his final eight games, and if he builds on that, there's almost no way he won't be the No. 1 pick in 2027. Unless, like his uncles Peyton and Eli, he opts to go back for his senior season at Texas.

If that's the case, Lindsey could be right in contention to be the first overall pick if he declares. At this point in my summer scouting, he's in that same tier of QB prospect as top names like Oregon's Dante Moore and South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers.

When Lindsey's name hits the oddsboard at our best NFL betting sites, he's worth a flyer to go No. 1, just like Mendoza was last year.