🏀 NBA Player Props Today: NBA Playoffs Best Bets & Expert Picks for Tuesday, May 5
📡 SBR Edge: Reaves Gets Blackjack in OKC; Scores 21
My NBA player props today feature James Harden Under 19.5 points (-120), as he has put up 19 or fewer points in four of his last five outings. My second NBA best bet is Lu Dort Over 6.5 points (-120). He scored seven or more points in all three of his regular-season matchups against the Lakers. I wrap up my top picks with Austin Reaves Over 20.5 points (-111), as he is averaging 26.9 points per game without Luka Doncic in the lineup.
🏀 Best NBA player props today: May 5
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden Under 19.5 points | -120 via DraftKings | 1.2u -> 1u | Has scored 19 or fewer points in 4 of his last 5 games |
| Lu Dort Over 6.5 points | -120 via DraftKings | 1.2u -> 1u | Scored 7+ points in all 3 regular-season meetings with LAL |
| Austin Reaves Over 20.5 points | -111 via DraftKings | 1.11u -> 1u | Averaging 26.9 PPG without Doncic this season |
Total wagered: 3.51 units | Max profit: 3 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet tonight
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
James Harden Under 19.5 points (-120) at Pistons
I originally backed Harden against Toronto early in the series, but he has become less aggressive as the playoffs have progressed. He had 19 or fewer points in four of his final five first-round games and attempted just nine shots in the Cavaliers' Game 7 win.
Against the best defense in the East, don't expect Harden to become more aggressive. DraftKings lists Harden Under 19.5 points at -120, but this bet is good up to -140 on the best sports betting sites. Meanwhile, our LJ Blut backs the Cavaliers to cover the spread with his NBA play of the day.
🏀 More Cavaliers vs. Pistons expert picks
I feature James Haren and Jalen Duren in my Cavaliers vs. Pistons player props for Game 1.
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
The Thunder are the betting favorite in the NBA championship odds.
Lu Dort Over 6.5 points (-120) vs. Lakers
I get it - Dort was practically invisible on offense against Phoenix in Game 4, but that doesn’t mean we have to overreact.
He had eight or more points in three of his four first-round games and, against L.A. specifically, scored seven or more in all three regular-season matchups.
Dort attempted seven or more shots in each of the first three games of the first round, and I expect his usage to look similar today in Game 1. Dort Over 6.5 points is -120 at DraftKings, but I would play this up to -140 on the best NBA betting sites.
Austin Reaves Over 20.5 points (-111) at Thunder
I can’t imagine a game plan for the Lakers today that doesn’t involve making Reaves the primary option on offense. He’s averaging 26.9 PPG without Doncic in the lineup this season and should be projected to score more as he gets more comfortable in the offense.
He has played only two games since returning from injury, so while we can’t ignore those results completely, the bigger picture is more important when projecting his output for Game 1. His Over 20.5 points is -111 at DraftKings, but I'd be comfortable playing this up to -130 on the best sports betting apps.
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | Lakers | Under 36.5 points + rebounds + assists | -135 |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | Under 18.5 points + rebounds | -115 |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | Under 21.5 points | -125 |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | Under 3.5 rebounds | -105 |
| Marcus Smart | Lakers | Under 2.5 rebounds | +110 |
🚀 Best NBA parlay picks today
We saw in the first round that the Pistons don't need Jalen Duren to contribute offensively to cover the spread. Duren averaged just 11.3 PPG in the Pistons' three first-round covers, so if you like Detroit -3, this SGP offers a fair shot at boosting your bet. Bet365 lists this parlay at +280, while FanDuel offers +248.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet today
- Pistons -3
- Jalen Duren Under 15.5 points
Best odds: +280 via bet365 (0.36u -> 1u)
💡 More NBA expert picks tonight
- NBA player props tonight
- NBA play of the day: Cavaliers vs. Pistons
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons player props
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 162.5-179-4.5 | -8.02 units ❌ | -2.3% ❌ |
| Player props | 144-124-4 | -6.62 units ❌ | -2.1% ❌ |
| Parlays | 14.5-50-0.5 | -0.51 units ❌ | -2.6% ❌ |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units ❌ | -13.1% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 54.5-52-0.5 | +9.32 units ✅ | 11.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 45-25 | +12.91 units ✅ | 19.3% ✅ |
| Parlays | 6.5-22-0.5 | -1.2 units ❌ | -14.5% ❌ |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units ❌ | -52.5% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props today
When betting Game 1s in the conference semifinals or later, I like to carry over trends from the end of the first round, as teams usually don’t drastically change their game plans until Game 3 or later in a series. While Harden’s Under and Dort’s Over both carry over from the end of the first round, Reaves presents a unique scenario, as he played just two games last round - and one came in a Lakers 20-point win, which doesn’t help predict how he’ll perform as a 15.5-point underdog.
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