Timberwolves vs. Heat Prediction: NBA Picks & Odds (Oct. 21)
My Timberwolves vs. Heat prediction targets the Heat's perimeter defense, which allowed the sixth-most 3-point attempts last season.
Tipoff from Kaseya Center in Miami is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN), with the Heat entering as a 1.5-point betting favorite and the total set at 240.5. My NBA picks back the Timberwolves as a +102 moneyline underdog, as LaMelo Ball will likely make Minnesota an even better 3-point shooting team.
Timberwolves vs. Heat picks & odds
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves ML | +102 via DraftKings | 1.96 units to profit 2 units |
| LaMelo Ball Over 7.5 assists | -140 via DraftKings | 1.4 units to profit 1 unit |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 27.5 points | +111 via Pinnacle | 0.9 units to profit 1 unit |
Picks submitted: Oct. 21 at 11:41 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 4.26 units | Profit if all picks win: 4 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Timberwolves vs. Heat best bet
Timberwolves ML (+102 via DraftKings)
I understand why the Heat are favored. They're at home, and they've added arguably a top-five player to their roster over the offseason. But this isn't a great matchup for Miami.
The Timberwolves ranked sixth in the NBA with a 37% 3-point percentage last season, and adding Ball, who attempted the second-most 3-pointers per game (10.8), in the offseason should only make Minnesota tougher to guard on the perimeter.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, in theory, could help the Heat's perimeter defense, which allowed the sixth-most 3-point attempts per game (39) last season, but he'll likely have to stay closer to the basket to defend against lobs to Rudy Gobert.
Play to: -114
Score prediction: Timberwolves 120, Heat 119
Timberwolves vs. Heat player props
LaMelo Ball Over 7.5 assists (-140 via DraftKings)
I don't like to take too much away from the preseason, but what we can guarantee moving forward is that Ball will be the primary setup man for the Timberwolves.
He led Minnesota with a 41.1% assist percentage in exhibition play, with Edwards the next-closest starter at just 18.4%. And given what happened the last time the Heat faced Ball, I expect them to send extra help when he drives to prevent him from scoring.
Not only was Bam Adebayo ruled out for the rest of the play-in game after Ball's reckless move, but Ball also hit a late go-ahead shot and finished with 30 points. Luckily for Minnesota, he's an elite passer and should find shooters or Gobert when help comes.
Play to: Over 7.5 assists (-153) or Over 8.5 assists (+118)
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 27.5 points (+111 via Pinnacle)
The Timberwolves are a tall, athletic team with an elite rim protector in the middle. Unless Antetokounmpo has drastically improved as an outside shooter over the offseason, this isn't a good matchup for him.
Jaden McDaniels is an elite wing defender with the 14th-shortest Defensive Player of the Year odds, and Gobert has averaged 2 blocks per game across 13 seasons.
Antetokounmpo's best matchup would be switching onto Ball, but even then, he'd still be driving against a 6-foot-7 point guard with above-average quickness. With Gobert helping in the middle, it makes sense that Antetokounmpo has scored 25 or fewer points in each of his last two games against the Timberwolves.
Play to: Under 27.5 points (+104) or Under 28.5 points (-118)
My betting record for NBA picks
NBA picks have been tracked since Oct. 20.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-3 | +3.14 units | 27.4% |
| Spreads | 2-1 | +1.8 units | 26.9% |
| Totals | 2-1 | +0.48 units | 30.1% |
| Player props | 2-1 | +0.86 units | 27.1% |
Live Timberwolves vs. Heat odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Timberwolves vs. Heat page.
Latest Timberwolves vs. Heat injuries
How to watch Timberwolves vs. Heat
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 21
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Kaseya Center (Miami)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
Related Articles
