NBA Best Bets & Expert Picks Today: Basketball Predictions for Wednesday, Oct. 21

After a three-game Opening Day, we have a loaded 12-game slate for our NBA best bets today. The biggest matchup on the West Coast is the Warriors visiting the Lakers, where I have a star point guard projected to go Under on his points tonight.

My first pick is on the Mavericks taking on the Rockets in Houston, with tipoff set for 8:30 p.m. ET. I wrap up with the final game of the night, the Kings visiting the Clippers, which tips off at 10:30 p.m. ET.

NBA best bets: Player props & ATS picks today (Oct. 21)

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.

Total wagered: 5.08 units | Max profit: 5 units

Best NBA bet today

Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction: Mavericks +9.5 (+100)

I can't justify laying 9.5 points on the favorite in the Battle of Texas.

I understand that the Rockets will be a much better team overall than the Mavericks, but the market is undervaluing how well these teams know one another. Across four head-to-head meetings last season, the Mavericks went 4-0 ATS, all as an underdog, and even won two meetings straight up.

Now, while I'm not advocating for a Mavericks straight-up victory - I would consider it at +341 or greater - Cooper Flagg has been a historic NBA player to date and should only improve this season, so we're potentially buying low on the Mavericks. Meanwhile, Fred VanVleet's return for the Rockets may actually disrupt their chemistry early on.

Play to: Mavericks +9.5 (-116)

More NBA picks & player props for Wednesday

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Warriors vs. Lakers prediction: Stephen Curry Under 24.5 points (-114)

Stephen Curry is 38 years old, and if you consider how many postseason games he's played (155), it's as if he's played an extra two seasons. He's probable tonight with an ankle injury, so not only is he not at 100% coming out of the offseason, but he has also historically started slow in recent seasons.

Curry scored 23 points on 14 shot attempts in his first game last season, also against the Lakers in Los Angeles, and had 17 points on 10 attempts in his debut the prior season on the road against the Trail Blazers. With the Lakers a 6.5-point favorite, there's also the potential for a blowout, meaning Curry wouldn't even play the fourth quarter to hit his Over.

Play to: Under 24.5 points (-123)

Kings vs. Clippers prediction: Kings +4.5 (+103)

I just can't get to 4.5 points in this game. The Clippers have arguably the best home-court advantage in the NBA, but even if you were to give them 2.5 points for home court, which is aggressive for a regular-season game, I still don't believe they're 2 points better than the Kings on a neutral.

The Kings are returning Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis, who are both multiple-time All-Stars, and Darius Acuff Jr. was among the most impressive rookies in preseason, leading all first-year players in scoring (17.3 points per game). Meanwhile, the Clippers' starting lineup will feature just one player who averaged 12 or more PPG last season (Darius Garland at 18.8).

Play to: Kings +4.5 (-113)

My betting record for NBA picks

NBA picks have been tracked since Oct. 20.