🏈 NFL Starting QB Odds: Will Mahomes, Sanders Start Week 1? 2026 QB Predictions

With NFL training camps on the horizon, teams across the NFL are prepping for starting quarterback battles, while others are in a wait-and-see stage to figure out who will be under center for them come Week 1.

The NFL starting QB odds across prediction market apps have a clear favorite for most teams' Week 1 starters, but there are still plenty of questions for the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Who will start Week 1 at QB for the Kansas City Chiefs?

Will Patrick Mahomes be healthy for MNF?

When the Chiefs traded a sixth-round pick to the New York Jets for Justin Fields in March, it seemed like a savvy move given Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL in December. The move gave Kansas City insurance so they wouldn't feel as much pressure to rush their star QB back to the field.

With 50-plus starts under his belt, Fields was one of the most experienced QBs that was available at the time, and though his play has been shaky, his mobility could be an X-factor in Andy Reid's offense. 

However, with the recent announcement that the Chiefs will be playing in the first Monday Night Football game of the season against their AFC West rival, the Denver Broncos, it seems increasingly likely that Kansas City will need Mahomes on the field.

Chiefs Week 1 starting QB prediction: Patrick Mahomes (73%)

The time between Mahomes' ACL and LCL surgery (Dec. 15) and the Chiefs' MNF opener against the Broncos (Sept. 14) is 273 days. Is that enough time for the Chiefs to feel comfortable putting him back on the field against Denver? My assumption is yes.

As of early May, Mahomes is already participating in limited on-field work, and ESPN reporter Adam Schefter stated on SportsCenter, "he certainly is tracking to be ready for the start of the regular season. That's going to be his goal."

Recent history has proven that a torn ACL for a QB late in the season isn't necessarily going to delay their start to the following season. In 2020, Joe Burrow tore his ACL and MCL, had surgery in December, and was ready to start the Cincinnati Bengals' opener in 2021. 

Who will start Week 1 at QB for the Cleveland Browns?

Deshaun Watson vs. Shedeur Sanders vs. Dillon Gabriel

This may be the only actual starting QB battle in the NFL this offseason. And with Todd Monken stepping in as head coach, it should theoretically be as open a battle as we've seen in recent years ... that is unless owner Jimmy Haslam gets involved.

With Deshaun Watson missing all of 2025 due to a torn Achilles suffered on Oct. 20, 2024, which he then re-ruptured in January 2025, it's hard to imagine he'll be bringing much to the table this season. The last time we saw him, he was unequivocally the worst starting QB in the league. He finished the season with a league-low QBR (21.0) and EPA per play (-0.233).

And although both Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel struggled as rookies, there's far more upside to starting one of them this season. First of all, at least one of them is likely to be on the roster next season, and second of all, neither is coming off a devastating injury known to derail careers.

Browns Week 1 starting QB prediction: Shedeur Sanders (30%)

There's zero logical reason for Watson to be the Browns' starting QB in Week 1, but with his contract, there's a chance Haslam might want Monken to play the QB he gave a fully guaranteed $230 million deal to. Still, at this point, the addition of Watson is already the worst in NFL history, and Haslam should just want to mentally move on.

Instead, Sanders makes the most sense to be under center when the Browns hit the field in their opener. While he struggled plenty as a rookie, there's more upside starting him than Watson (who will be out of the league next year) and Gabriel (whose physical tools are those of a career backup).

In his final season at Colorado, Sanders' accuracy helped him finish top five nationally in adjusted completion rate (81.8%) and turnover-worthy play rate (1.3%). And with an improved receiver room, thanks to rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, Monken may as well see if Sanders can take a positive step in his development. 

Who will start Week 1 at QB for the Pittsburgh Steelers?

The Aaron Rodgers wait continues 

Pittsburgh remains trapped by Aaron Rodgers, and there's next to nothing GM Omar Khan and head coach Mike McCarthy can do at this point other than wait until the future Hall of Famer makes a decision.

The Steelers already placed the right-of-first-refusal tag on Rodgers, so if he does play this season, it's going to be in the Steel City. And if he doesn't play, the only other options on the roster right now are Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, and rookie Drew Allar - that would be the most uninspiring QB room in the NFL.  

It's Rodgers or bust if the Steelers are going to avoid a losing record for the 23rd straight season. Clearly, Pittsburgh wants the 42-year-old back after he helped them to a 10-7 record and playoff berth last season.

Steelers Week 1 starting QB prediction: Aaron Rodgers (83%)

It's the same old song and dance as last year with Rodgers. He's being coy about his future while going on Pat McAfee's show, and sometime in June or July, he'll sign a one-year deal with Pittsburgh and be the team's starting QB.

It's a tough spot for the Steelers to be in, with Rodgers being a below-average QB at this point in his career - he was outside the top 20 in EPA per play (0.077) and QBR (44.4) last season. But Rudolph has proven to be a middling backup at best, Howard is a former sixth-round pick without starter traits, and Allar is an enigma who offers the most upside of the three but never put it together at Penn State. 

It's going to be Rodgers in the black and gold in Week 1.

Who will start Week 1 at QB for the Las Vegas Raiders?

Sit the rookie, start the veteran

In an ideal world, almost every NFL team that uses a first-round pick on a QB wants to sit him behind a veteran early on his rookie season. The best case of that was Mahomes starting just one game as a rookie while he sat behind Alex Smith. And if Klint Kubiak gets his wish, Kirk Cousins will be Fernando Mendoza's version of Smith.

Nobody expects Cousins to be anything more than a placeholder at this point in his career, but he offers a solid option for the Raiders. Kubiak already said about Mendoza, "ideally, you don't want him to start from day one."

The Heisman winner and national champion was top 10 nationally in QBR (88.4) and adjusted completion rate (79%) for Indiana last season, and has the makeup of a franchise QB. However, the Raiders' wide receiver room might be the worst in the league and the offensive line needs work. So why rush Mendoza into the lineup?

Raiders Week 1 starting QB prediction: Kirk Cousins (74%)

Cousins was brought to Sin City to start at least a handful of games while Mendoza gets up to speed. Plus, he has a relationship with Kubiak dating back to their time with the Minnesota Vikings (Kubiak was Cousins' QB coach for two seasons and offensive coordinator for one).

And while Cousins' time with the Atlanta Falcons wasn't spectacular, he wasn't unplayable. His EPA per play the last two seasons (0.077) was on par with Aaron Rodgers' (0.078), and higher than CJ Stroud's (0.074) and Bryce Young's (0.025).

I'd guess we don't see Mendoza start until at least October.