NFL Week 10 Power Rankings: Which Super Bowl Odds Contenders Offer Value at Halfway Point?
We've officially reached the halfway point of the NFL season, and the Super Bowl odds entering Week 10 look an awful lot like they did before the year.
The Kansas City Chiefs remain the title favorites with a perfect 8-0 record following a Monday Night Football win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Chiefs sit just ahead of the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens by the latest Super Bowl odds. The Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers loom after each were vanquished by Kansas City in last year's postseason.
I've been clear since the preseason that the Chiefs lead my Super Bowl predictions until further notice, but that doesn't mean they're the best value on the board.
Here are my NFL power rankings based on the best values across our best Super Bowl betting sites.
Super Bowl odds entering Week 10
Super Bowl odds via BetMGM; all teams listed with shorter than +5000 odds as of Nov. 4.
| Team | Odds (BetMGM) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +425 | 19.05% | $42.50 |
| Lions | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Ravens | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Bills | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| 49ers | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Eagles | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Vikings | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Packers | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Texans | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Commanders | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Falcons | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Steelers | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| Bengals | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Chargers | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
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Only 14 teams have better than a 2% chance to win the Super Bowl entering Week 10, according to our best NFL betting sites.
The Chiefs lead the way after hoisting the Lombardi Trophy each of the last two seasons, while the Lions and Ravens have nestled their way into a clear top three behind their respective NFL MVP odds contenders under center.
The 49ers (4-4) and Bengals (4-5) are the only teams on this list without a winning record through nine weeks, though both have made the Super Bowl in recent years and have the type of offense to spark another late run this season.
Speaking of which, one of those opens our list at No. 10 in my NFL power rankings, which are based on which teams I'd bet to win the Super Bowl at their current odds.
NFL power rankings by Super Bowl odds
Teams ranked based on best values across our best sportsbooks entering Week 10.
Bengals (+4500)
The Bengals enter Week 10 with a 4-5 record and the 14th-shortest title odds at DraftKings. But they are absolutely one of my 10 favorite bets to win it all.
How can they not be with a top-five quarterback in Joe Burrow playing at an MVP level over the last two months?
The former top pick threw five touchdowns in a must-win spot last week, and he ranks second leaguewide in passing TDs (20) and QBR (76.3) to keep Cincinnati alive in the NFL playoff odds.
The Bengals are a missed field goal away from leading the AFC North over the Ravens, who own the third-best title odds, yet Cincinnati is trading as a long shot with a $10 bet returning a $450 profit if it wins it all.
If Burrow keeps cooking and this defense can round into form under respected coordinator Lou Anarumo ... watch out.
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Packers (+2200)
I can't say I was all that encouraged by what I saw on Sunday in a tough divisional matchup, but I still believe in this group as a dark-horse threat to win the NFC.
Jordan Love clearly wasn't healthy as he played through a groin injury, but he still threw for 273 yards against a Lions defense that ranks third in EPA allowed per play (-0.14) and per pass (-0.14).
His ability to attack deep - with a cadre of young playmakers at his disposal - is what truly unlocks the Super Bowl upside for this roster, especially with an established run game behind workhorse back Josh Jacobs.
There's talent on this defense, too, even if that unit is still working out the kinks under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Consider me a believer in this group overall, even if this isn't a sweetheart price at Caesars.
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Bills (+900)
Are we not talking enough about the Bills after a 7-2 start, or are the best sportsbooks overreacting to a fairly manageable schedule so far?
Either way, Josh Allen has taken advantage of a soft slate with a stellar 17:2 TD-INT ratio through nine weeks, though he's benefitted from four dropped interceptions - third-most among QBs - and isn't pushing the ball downfield like he usually does.
I still have concerns about the Bills' lack of offensive playmakers and their aging defense, so this wouldn't be my preferred bet among the top contenders even at these outlier +900 odds via BetRivers.
Still, I have to imagine that Allen will have his say in the race to decide the AFC champion, which is why this team is still comfortably in my top 10 title bets.
Vikings (+2200)
Here's another crossroads question as we reach the halfway point of the NFL season: has the rest of the league caught up to the Vikings' defense, or are the best sports betting apps moving too quickly in response to a minor blip?
The answer is probably somewhere in between for Minnesota, which won its first five games in style before two upset losses and an uninspiring win on Sunday night.
I still have faith in Kevin O'Connell, Brian Flores, and the playmakers littered across this roster to secure one of the NFC wild-card spots and potentially upend a division winner in the first round.
Your confidence in a title run beyond that depends on your appetite for wagering money on Sam Darnold in the playoffs. I'm optimistic, but it's still a major wart that has the Vikings further down my list even at these generous odds from BetRivers.
Eagles (+1300)
I wanted no part of the Eagles entering the season after last year's nightmare campaign that would have led most franchises to fully clean house.
I've since changed my tune after a strong first half of the season that includes an active four-game win streak since a Week 5 bye, led by the dynamic duo of Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley for one of the NFL's best rushing offenses.
Hurts has been the catalyst with a combined 18 touchdowns in eight starts under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, while Barkley is defying the laws of gravity as he contends for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds.
It's still hard for me to erase the memory of this team collapsing down the stretch last year, but I'm intrigued nonetheless by these odds via FanDuel in the wide-open NFC.
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49ers (+1100)
I can't say I'm all that inspired by this version of the 49ers, who have carried bad vibes from the offseason into a frustrating start to the regular season.
Yet the talent is still hard to ignore for San Francisco, which features multiple All-Pros on both sides of the ball and could return superstar back Christian McCaffrey in Week 10. Let's not forget what he's capable of when healthy.
I would have the Niners much lower on this list if we were forced to stomach their worst odds of +750, but DraftKings is offering a rare value with a $10 bet paying out a $110 profit if Kyle Shanahan can finally lead this group to an elusive championship.
That's enough to tempt me into a small bet on last year's runners-up, even if I'm generally skeptical that this year's team is any better than the last two to lose in the Big Game.
Falcons (+2500)
Call me crazy if you'd like, but the Falcons have been my favorite value in the NFC since I bet on them at 50/1 in the spring, and they remain a relative bargain even at half the return.
Atlanta was a botched penalty call away from beating the Chiefs in Week 3, and first-year head coach Raheem Morris has quietly led this team to five wins in six games since to build a decent lead in the spiraling NFC South.
Kirk Cousins is playing like a fringe MVP candidate at the helm of this star-studded offense, and the defense - while troubled in the pass-rush department - is chock-full of elite players on the back end to frustrate top passers in the playoffs.
The ingredients are there for a deep run, and we've seen these odds slowly shrink over time. A $10 wager at bet365 would still return a $250 profit if my hunch proves to be true about this sleeping giant in the NFC.
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Chiefs (+425)
Let me make something very clear: Kansas City was my pick to win it all before the season, and if all else was equal, I'd probably stick with it to this point.
But all things are not equal when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl champion, and I'd rather bet on either of the two teams ranked higher than the Chiefs on this list while enjoying 50% more profit (or more) if they win it all.
It's also fair to ask at this point in the season whether Kansas City's run game and deep passing attack can sustain the injuries we've seen to this offense - even if we saw Patrick Mahomes and Co. overcome a similar flaw last season.
That small-ball approach worked last year in the AFC Championship against the Ravens, but I don't think 17 points is getting it done this year against the supercharged offenses for Baltimore or Detroit.
Even with a ho-hum first half to the season (by their standards), the Chiefs are still 8-0, which is one reason why I don't mind a wager at these +425 odds via BetMGM. But it isn't my favorite bet on the board.
Ravens (+650)
I've watched nearly every Ravens game in the Lamar Jackson era, which spans much of the last seven seasons. And this feels like the most dangerous version of Baltimore's offense to date.
Jackson's evolution as a passer is a key reason why - he leads the league in QBR (77.3), passer rating (120.7), yards per attempt (9.3), and touchdown rate (7.8%) - but Derrick Henry has turned a dynamic attack into a downright unfair proposition for opposing defenses to stop.
Yes, the defense has some legitimate concerns under first-year coordinator Zach Orr, though that unit boasts All-Pro level talent at all three levels. And the offense is explosive enough to still elevate Baltimore to fourth in net EPA/play (0.15).
I'd be tempted to put this team first if I had more confidence in its struggling pass rush, which is an issue for the top group on this list, too. However you split the difference between these top teams, there is still clear value in my mind at these +650 odds via FanDuel.
Lions (+600)
What more is there to be said about the Lions, who are off to the best start since 1956 amid their longest win streak since 1995?
I wrote in detail about Detroit's hot start in my breakdown of the Lions Super Bowl odds, so I won't rehash it all here. I highly recommend checking out that article for my full analysis on why the Lions are the best title bet available entering Week 10.
Here's a recap: Ben Johnson is an absolute mastermind offensively, Jared Goff is making his case as the best quarterback in the league, and the run game is as devastating as any leaguewide with the way Jahmyr Gibbs (and David Montgomery) are toting the rock every week.
The Lions' snakebitten defense is the only hang-up to this point, and that unit has admirably allowed the fourth-fewest points (16.5 PPG) with the most takeaways (11) over the last four weeks.
Detroit has virtually no track record of success in the postseason besides last year's run to the NFC Championship, so I get the skepticism for those tuning in for the first time. Fade this team at your own peril, and don't hesitate to lay these +600 odds at FanDuel on this year's potential Super Bowl champions.
Full NFL power rankings entering Week 10
| Rank | Team | Best Super Bowl odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | +600 via FanDuel |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | +650 via FanDuel |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | +425 via BetMGM |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | +2500 via bet365 |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | +1100 via DraftKings |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | +1300 via FanDuel |
| 7 | Minnesota Vikings | +2200 via BetRivers |
| 8 | Buffalo Bills | +900 via BetRivers |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | +2200 via Caesars |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | +4500 via DraftKings |
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