Lions Super Bowl Odds: Is Detroit the Best Team in the NFL?
When Dan Campbell took over as head coach in 2021, the Detroit Lions were a franchise without an identity after three straight last-place finishes in the NFC North.
Three years later, they might be the best team in the NFL. At least by my NFL Week 10 power rankings.
That may feel blasphemous to say with the Kansas City Chiefs in pursuit of their third straight Lombardi Trophy, but the two-time reigning champs are the only team with better Super Bowl odds than the Lions after their latest statement win on Sunday.
Lions Super Bowl odds
Super Bowl odds courtesy of our best NFL betting sites as of Nov. 4.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +500 | +600 | +500 | +500 | +600 |
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Entering Week 10, the Lions have the second-shortest odds across all five of our Super Bowl betting sites following Sunday's 24-14 win over the Green Bay Packers.
Detroit enters the midway point with the NFC's best record (7-1) and the NFL's best point differential (+110) through the first nine weeks. Only the Buffalo Bills (+87) and Washington Commanders (+74) have also outscored teams by more than 70 points.
This is all new territory for the Lions, who haven't started this hot since 1956 and are currently riding their longest win streak since 1995.
They passed another big test Sunday in their first outdoor game of the season, as even the driving rain of Green Bay couldn't derail this train off its tracks away from Ford Field.
How do you stop the Lions offense?
For as much as Campbell has changed the culture in Detroit, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson deserves plenty of credit for constructing a death star on the field.
The head-coach-in-waiting has pulled all the right levers for the NFL's best scoring offense (32.3 PPG), which is averaging 2.86 points per drive on just 5.5 plays while turning it over on a mere 6.3% of its possessions.
That ruthlessly efficient attack starts with a creative and dynamic run game, which features two elite backs in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Both of them rank in the top five in rushing TDs and the top 15 in broken tackles, while Gibbs paces the entire league in yards per carry (6.4) and success rate (63.1%).
As prolific as the Lions' two-headed rushing attack has been, QB Jared Goff has been the key to unlocking the best version of this offense.
The former No. 1 pick has been laughably efficient over his last six starts, completing an NFL-record 82.8% of his passes with a 140.1 passer rating in that stretch. He's also made all the right throws to keep this offense on schedule.
Case in point: Detroit has more touchdowns (28) than incompletions (24) across this six-game win streak - the first team to pull that off since at least 1940.
While Goff has feasted in the short passing game, he isn't afraid to take shots, either. Among full-time starters, his 8.7 yards per attempt trail only NFL MVP odds favorite Lamar Jackson (9.3), and he leads the league with a 133 passer rating on throws of at least 20 yards downfield.
After years of struggling with the blitz, he's progressed in that area of his game, too. Goff has been pressured on 35% of his dropbacks, and he's responded with the NFL's best adjusted completion rate (77.1%) and sixth-best passer rating (93.8) among full-time starters.
It's no wonder why some of the best defenses in the league have looked helpless against this offense, which is operating like a well-oiled machine through the first half of the year.
Jared Goff MVP odds
Entering NFL Week 10, Goff owns the fourth-best odds to win NFL MVP across our best sports betting apps after his sensational start to the season.
None are offering a better price than FanDuel, which has Goff priced at +800 to win MVP with a $10 bet returning an $80 profit if he does.
The clearest case for his candidacy is the brilliance of this Lions offense with him at the helm - especially if he continues to set a record pace for efficiency for a team that eventually claims the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That's clearly in play with Detroit seemingly prepared to win in all conditions.
Those +800 imply a mere 11.11% chance that Goff wins this award. While voters may still hold preconceived bias about the Lions' surging QB, I still think his ultimate chances in this market far exceed that implied probabilty.
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Detroit defense stepping up
When Aidan Hutchinson went down with a season-ending injury in Week 6, he was leading the NFL in sacks (7.5) and total pressures (45) and was the betting favorite by the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds.
Naturally, most analysts (myself included) expected a drop-off for this group without one of the best defenders in football. Instead, Detroit has put together its best stretch of the entire season.
Since a Week 5 bye, Detroit has boasted the NFL's fourth-best scoring defense (16.5 PPG) while leading the league in takeaways (11) over the last four weeks.
In three games without Hutchinson, the Lions limited Sam Darnold and Jordan Love - two MVP contenders - to a combined one passing touchdown and two interceptions, including a pick-six on Sunday that marked the turning point of that 24-14 win.
A consistent pass rush is still a concern for the Lions, who have one sack over the last two weeks, but they did pressure Love into his biggest mistake of the day.
That will be the biggest X-factor for this team over the back half of the season, especially with a secondary that can be exploited over the top. Still, there's enough talent on the back end to force mistakes and deliver the ball back to the offense - which is when the magic really happens.
How do Lions stack up with Chiefs, Ravens?
Of course, the Super Bowl isn’t won in a vacuum, and Detroit isn't the only team with its eyes on the Lombardi Trophy.
The Chiefs are clearly the measuring stick by which any challenger is compared, and it's tough to doubt Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the rest of this dynastic core after they won it each of the past two seasons.
Yet Kansas City's downfield passing attack - the best weapon to attack Detroit's defense and put its offense in catch-up mode - is in dire straits amid receiver injuries. And don't forget which side claimed victory when these teams faced off in last year's season opener.
Baltimore, the other team to lose in heartbreaking fashion in last year's conference championship, is built awfully similar to Detroit with an electric run game and explosive pass game with an MVP contender leading the way under center.
The Ravens' defense shares the Lions' concerns, too, with an even worse pass rush and one of the leakiest pass defenses in football.
| Team | Offensive EPA/play | Defensive EPA/play | Net EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.05 (8th) | -0.07 (9th) | 0.13 (7th) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.21 (1st) | 0.07 (25th) | 0.15 (4th) |
| Detroit Lions | 0.14 (4th) | -0.14 (3rd) | 0.28 (1st) |
Those three teams - Kansas City, Baltimore, and Detroit - are the only ones with better than a 12% chance to win it all according to our best sportsbooks.
As Campbell said after Sunday's win, this roster is "built to win" and is playing like the most complete team in the league with perhaps the highest floor as we look ahead to January.
Given the struggles for the rest of the NFC, the Lions would be my pick to win the conference with a $10 bet returning a $27.50 profit at these +275 odds via bet365.
And if they make it to February for the first time in franchise history? I sure wouldn't want to bet against them.
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