NFL Player Props Week 8: Predictions, Picks for Monday

Our final NFL player props pick for Week 8 is Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff throwing for Under 283.5 passing yards against the Las Vegas Raiders under the lights of Monday Night Football. We shop for the best MNF odds from our best NFL prop betting sites when making our NFL picks.

The Buffalo Bills bounced back from a Week 7 loss on Thursday, and in the process, we went 1-1 on our Thursday Night Football props. Gabe Davis soared Over his receiving yards total, but Mike Evans fell a little short of doing the same.

Sunday was another 1-1 showing with Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts just clearing his 34.5 receiving-yards total, and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes having his worst game of the season and failing to come anywhere close to his 274.5 passing-yards total.

All eyes are on Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff in the Monday Night Football showdown against the Las Vegas Raiders.

To accompany our NFL Week 8 predictions and NFL best bets, here are our best NFL player props for Week 8 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for Week 8

• Jared Goff Under 283.5 passing yards (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Patrick Mahomes Over 273.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐ ✖️
• Kyle Pitts Over 34.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
• Gabe Davis Over 39.5 receiving yards (-119 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
• Mike Evans Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✖️

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NFL player props for Week 8: Monday

Jared Goff Under 283.5 passing yards (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

This is an outlier total through bet365, with Caesars hanging the number as low as 272.5. Additionally, it’s also far lower than my projection of 260.9 passing yards for Goff on Monday Night Football.

I’d price this prop at -168, so there’s a positive expected value of 13% compared to the -125 bet365 odds.

The Lions are ripe for a rebound against the Las Vegas Raiders, but I don’t expect Goff to need to throw it all over Ford Field. Detroit shouldn’t have any trouble running the ball against the Vegas defense, and Goff won’t need to push the ball down field if the Lions can take control of the game.

Our NFL analyst Phillip Wood has broken down additional Goff NFL player props for Monday's game.

NFL player props for Week 8: Sunday

Patrick Mahomes Over 273.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐ ✖️

This is one of the lowest passing yards totals for Mahomes this season, and he’s soared Over this required 273.5 benchmark in each of the past three games.

The Denver Broncos have skewed defensive statistics because of their 70-20 Week 3 road drubbing by the Miami Dolphins. Additionally, the Broncos just faced Kansas City in Week 6, so there is some added familiarity. Both are definite factors for why this total is lower than I anticipated.

Remember, though, the last Denver-Kansas City matchup was on a Thursday, and the Chiefs were coming off consecutive road games.

I have Mahomes projected for 289.5 passing yards and would price this Over at -139. As a result, we’re landing a positive expected value of 11% on the -110 bet365 odds.

Kyle Pitts Over 34.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️

There hasn’t been significant movement in this total since it opened early Wednesday evening. The number dipped to 33.5 but quickly moved back to 34.5 across most of our best sports betting sites.

As a result, it checks out as an accurate early line. It just doesn’t align with my projection of 42.1 receiving yards for Pitts, and I anticipate there being movement to the Over leading into Sunday.

I’d price this Over at -154, so when compared to the -110 bet365 price, we’re landing a positive expected value of 16%.

On the surface, the Tennessee Titans have been solid against tight ends and allowed just 25 receptions for 243 yards. That’s across just 28 targets, though, and Tennessee has actually allowed the third-highest yards per target to the position.

Additionally, Pitts has cleared this 34.5 number in each of the past three games and five of seven for the year. Atlanta tight ends also sport the largest target share in the league, albeit with Pitts sharing looks with fellow TE Jonnu Smith. Still, this is a pedestrian total for Pitts to top.

NFL player props for Week 8: Thursday Night Football

Gabe Davis Over 39.5 receiving yards (-119 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️

With just four receptions for 27 yards over the past two games, Davis hasn’t capitalized on his nine targets. His role in the Buffalo passing attack isn’t in question, and his 14.97 aDOT ranks fourth in the NFL among wide receivers with at least 20 targets this season.

He leads Buffalo receivers in offensive snaps and 29.3% of his 140 career receptions have gone for 20-plus yards.

Simply put, Davis and quarterback Josh Allen just haven’t connected on a big play since the wideout went for 100 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5. And, through the first five weeks of the season, Davis averaged 64 receiving yards on 3.6 receptions per game.

I’m looking for a bounce-back performance against a solid Tampa Bay defense, but a defense that excels at stopping the run more than the vertical attack.

I have Davis projected for 46.4 receiving yards and would price this Over at -155. The difference in my numbers and the -119 Caesars odds is a positive expected value of 12%. Additionally, I value this number because FanDuel has the total at 41.5 as of Wednesday morning.

Mike Evans Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✖️

The Bills just allowed New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones to complete 25 of 30 passes for 272 yards and 9.1 yards per attempt in Week 7, and now the Buffalo defense has a short turnaround against one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in football.

It’s pretty clear Buffalo misses No. 1 cornerback Tre'Davious White (Achilles) and top linebacker Matt Milano (leg). And I expect their absences to be even more exacerbated on the short week.

Evans, meanwhile, remains a target hog in the Tampa Bay passing attack with 49 through six games. Additionally, Evans is averaging 9.6 yards per target and has already hauled in eight receptions of 20-plus yards. These numbers are also lowered by his underwhelming, and shortened, showing going head-to-head with New Orleans Saints four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore in Week 4.

Those two have a bit of a love/hate relationship.

But back to Thursday Night Football props, I have Evans projected for 63.3 receiving yards and would price this Over at -140. It adds up to a positive expected value of 11% compared to the -110 bet365 odds.

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