NFL Player Props Week 7: Predictions, Picks for Sunday

Sportsbook Review betting analysts Neil Parker and Jon Metler have been on a successful streak with their NFL player prop selections. They have collectively achieved a 15-4 record since Week 3, and their intention is to continue choosing winners while making use of the best NFL odds available from our top-rated NFL prop betting sites.

We started the week off right with a winning bet on Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk. The Jags wideout hauled in 90 receiving yards to cash our Over 51.5 ticket and put another green checkmark on the board.

The selections are currently on fire. We've been on a 15-4 streak since Week 3 and have won 10.18 units during this run.

Neil Parker has been having a lot of success in the NFL passing yards market, and in Week 7, I'm following suit with Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Sunday Night Football clash should prove to be a high-scoring affair with a lot of opportunities for Tua to air it out.

Here are our best NFL player props for Week 7 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for Week 7

• Josh Allen Over 21.5 completions (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Jerry Jeudy Over 44.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Joshua Dobbs Under 220.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
• Kenny Pickett Over 205.5 passing yards (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐
• Tua Tagovailoa Over 273.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Christian Kirk Over 51.5 receiving yards (-114 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅

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NFL player props for Week 7: Sunday 

Josh Allen Over 21.5 completions (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Even with Allen throwing for just 169 yards last week against the New York Giants, he still completed 19 passes. So, with the New England Patriots listing 21 players on their Week 7 injury report, I’m anticipating Allen having a solid day against the banged up, and already bad, Pats.

Additionally, I’m also encouraged that tight ends Dalton Kincaid (concussion) and Dawson Knox (wrist) both practiced fully all week, so Allen will have his full complement of weapons available in the passing attack.

I have Allen projected for 22.6 completions on Sunday against the Pats, and I’d price this Over at -127 for a positive expected value of 12% compared to the +100 BetMGM odds.

Pick made by Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)

Jerry Jeudy Over 44.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

It's moments like these that I absolutely love sports betting. The market can be shaped by narrative and perception, and TV commentator Steve Smith Sr. has created a scenario where we see value on the Over for a Jeudy prop. I mean, how can you play the Over on receiving yards for a player whom Smith just publicly called out as a JAG on national television? He's not a good wide receiver, right?

You don't have to be an elite wide receiver to go Over your total; that's why your total is exclusive to you. We aren't asking for Jeudy to go Over 95.5 receiving yards; that total is relative to Tyreek Hill's skillset, and the 44.5 is relative to Jeudy's skillset.

What I love about situations like this is that the media attention Jeudy has garnered as an underperforming wide receiver, mostly thanks to Smith, has created a disparity between where his receiving yards total should ideally trade and where it is currently being offered at our best sportsbooks.

Jeudy is projected to have 54.7 receiving yards, which means we can price the Over 44.5 at -125, but we're able to buy it at FanDuel at -114. This means this bet is showing a positive expected value of 4%. What makes this bet even better is that we are taking advantage of a rogue price that is available via FanDuel.

FanDuel is trading Jeudy's receiving yards total FOUR yards lower than any of our other best sports betting sites. With our projection, we don't have an edge over the total of 48.5, so you will want to do your shopping at FanDuel for this bet.

Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)

Joshua Dobbs Under 220.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

This is an outlier high total through FanDuel, with a number of our other best sportsbooks hanging Dobbs at 216.5 as of Friday afternoon.

I have the Arizona Cardinals quarterback projected for 206.5 passing yards against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 7, so I’d price this Under at -140. My numbers present a positive expected value of 9% compared to the -114 FanDuel odds.

Seattle returns home following a 17-13 road loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Seahawks have only allowed 388 passing yards across their past two games. Additionally, the book is out on Dobbs. He’s only completed 49.3% of his passes the past two weeks, and I’m anticipating more struggles Sunday with Seattle set to rebound.

Pick made by Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)

Kenny Pickett Over 205.5 passing yards (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐

I like the Pittsburgh Steelers off their bye this week and already locked them in at +3.5 in SBR's Beat the Bullseye contest.

The Los Angeles Rams are overrated, and their pass defense is especially vulnerable. Additionally, this total through BetRivers is off the market standard, with DraftKings, BetMGM, and bet365 all hanging this prop at 216.5.

The added preparation time will help Pickett and the Pittsburgh passing attack, and he’s cleared this 205.5-yard total in four of five games. I have Pickett projected for 221.4 passing yards, so my price for this Over would be -147. There’s a positive expected value of 11% based on my numbers and the -115 BetRivers odds.

Pick made by Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)

NFL player props for Week 7: Sunday Night Football

Tua Tagovailoa Over 273.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Outside of the quarterback and only a handful of other players, injuries to one specific player won't really move the needle when it comes to the spread. What does move the needle is a cluster of injuries to one positional group, and the Eagles are experiencing a cluster of injuries in their secondary.

The Eagles' top defensive back, Darius Slay, missed the Eagles' Week 6 game due to injury, and while the Eagles are hopeful Slay will return in Week 7, he definitely won't be 100%. Safety Reed Blankenship and cornerback Bradley Roby are also on the injury report.

Given the injuries in the Eagles' secondary, their coaching staff may devise a plan to contain Tyreek Hill. But do they possess the right personnel in the secondary to handle Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and the entire Dolphins passing attack? I doubt it. If there was one head coach in the NFL that I would expect to develop an offensive game plan to exploit these injuries in the Eagles' secondary, it is Mike McDaniel.

Tagovailoa is projected to have 287.3 passing yards against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football, which means we can price the Over 273.5 passing yards at -137, yet we can buy it at bet365 at -110. 

You will want to do your shopping on Tagovailoa at bet365 because they have the lowest juice (-110) on the total of 273.5 passing yards, and the market is telling us that you should have a sense of urgency when placing this bet. Tagovailoa opened with a total of 270.5 passing yards late on Wednesday night, and it wasted no time moving up to 273.5. FanDuel is even higher than the rest of the market at 276.5.  

Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)

NFL player props for Week 7: Thursday Night Football

Christian Kirk Over 51.5 receiving yards (-114 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅

There's a big unknown hovering over this Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jaguars and  Saints, and it's whether Lawrence will be starting at quarterback for the Jaguars. We've seen the spread move from Saints -3 to Saints -1, which is an indicator that Lawrence is trending toward playing.

I'm targeting Kirk's receiving yards prop because I think whether Lawrence plays or doesn't play, this bet remains live. If it's Lawrence on a bad knee, we should see the Jaguars looking to get the ball out quickly, and Kirk averages a modest 8.2 yards per target, while Calvin Ridley averages 12.3 yards per target. If it's C.J. Beathard under center, the strategy should remain relatively the same as the Jaguars will look to get him easy throws that are quick.

Kirk is projected to have 61.2 receiving yards against the Saints, which means we can price the Over 51.5 receiving yards at -122, and this bet is showing a positive expected value of 3%.

Since this total opened, we have seen it climb to 52.5 at most of our best sports betting sites, and FanDuel has its total for Kirk's receiving yards trading at 54.5. To maximize your edge, make sure you place your bet at BetRivers, which is one yard lower than the rest of the market and is offering comparable juice.

Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)

NFL betting odds pages

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• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
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• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)