NFL Player Props & Odds Week 1: Best Prop Bet for Monday Night Football
We've cashed two of our first four NFL player props for Week 1, and we're looking to end on a strong note with our best Monday Night Football player prop for Jets vs. 49ers.
My early flag plant on Aaron Jones paid off right away, as did my general skepticism of rookie QBs in Week 1, which I discussed further in my NFL Week 1 takeaways. But we came one catch short on Trey McBride and, uh, very short on Amon-Ra St. Brown's yardage total on Sunday Night Football.
We're looking ahead to the Monday Night Football odds with a wager tonight against Brock Purdy as he faces the best secondary in the NFL.
Here's a look at our best player prop for Monday Night Football, which we break down further in our Jets vs. 49ers prediction.
NFL player props for Week 1
Latest NFL odds as of Monday night and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Brock Purdy Over 0.5 interceptions (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Jets ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Aaron Jones Over 71.5 rush + rec yards (-115 via bet365) at Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Jayden Daniels Under 218.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) at Buccaneers ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 82.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) vs. Rams ⭐⭐⭐⭐❌
- Trey McBride Over 5.5 receptions (+105 via BetMGM) at Bills ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
Latest NFL picks made Monday night; odds subject to change.
Monday Night Football player prop
Brock Purdy Over 0.5 interceptions (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Originally, we had a Christian McCaffrey Under as our best bet of Monday Night Football because of our skepticism about his health.
Then he was ruled out of the game entirely - confirming our suspicions and putting his teammate in a tough spot against a stellar Jets defense.
Without CMC by his side, I'd expect Purdy to shoulder the load for this dynamic 49ers offense against New York, which boasts the best secondary in football with Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter along the boundaries.
Purdy threw four picks in his last game on Monday Night Football, and while he only threw an interception in six of his 16 starts last season, three of those games came when his supporting cast wasn't fully healthy.
This wager is trading as short as -125 across the rest of our best NFL betting sites, so I'd recommend pouncing on this -110 line at FanDuel before kickoff.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
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NFL player props for Sunday
Aaron Jones Over 71.5 rush + rec yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
I've firmly planted my flag on Aaron Jones Island™ this offseason. As I laid out in my NFL awards predictions, he's my single-favorite bet to win Offensive Player of the Year at 200/1 - and he feels undervalued entering Week 1, too.
The former Packers star led the NFL last year in rushing success rate (62%) and averaged 116.8 rushing yards over his final five games (including the postseason). That's why the Vikings targeted him in free agency as they transitioned to a new passer under center.
That passer was supposed to be rookie J.J. McCarthy, but with Sam Darnold taking snaps under center, I fully expect coach Kevin O'Connell to lean heavily on his new back against a Giants defense that was one of the league's worst against the run last year.
Given that this combined total is only 18 yards higher than his rushing total - he's averaged at least 20 receiving yards per game each of the last five years - I'm targeting this combo wager to benefit from all of his touches in this offense.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
Jayden Daniels Under 218.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
I like Daniels as a prospect and think he'll have a fine future with the Commanders. But this is about as tough of a debut as you could imagine against Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers.
Washington's rookie passer barely played in the preseason, and his receiving corps is rail-thin behind top wideout Terry McLaurin. That makes it tough enough for him to clear this total before considering the defensive mind he's going up against.
Bowles is renowned for his ability to pressure the quarterback and create confusion in their line of sight. His defense also features perhaps the league's best safety in Antoine Winfield Jr. and an improved pass rush from last year, which should make life difficult for the former Heisman Trophy winner.
Clearly, our best sports betting sites don't have a ton of confidence in Daniels in his debut. Neither do I. That's why I'm fading him as one of my best player props of Week 1 knowing that brighter days are surely ahead for No. 5.
Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 82.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
The Rams' cornerback situation has gone from serviceable to a serious concern in a matter of weeks. Darious Williams and Derion Kendrick were placed on IR in recent weeks, and slot corner Cobie Durant is nursing a hamstring injury.
That's to say nothing of the uncertain outlook for new top corner Tre'Davious White, who hasn't played a meaningful snap since tearing his Achilles last year - his second major lower body injury after a torn ACL two years earlier.
That group will be tasked with slowing one of the best receivers in football in St. Brown, who went off for 110 yards against the Rams in January.
With this prop dealing as high as 84.5 across our best sportsbooks in the hours before kickoff, I love this value at bet365 after we cashed our Aaron Jones bet at that shop earlier today.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Trey McBride Over 5.5 receptions (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
Our Mike Spector highlighted McBride's receiving yards total in his NFL Week 1 best bets. I like that bet a lot, but I'm even more compelled by McBride's receptions total in a mouth-watering matchup.
The Arizona star showed flashes in the first half of his sophomore season, but he went on a tear once Kyler Murray returned under center - averaging 6.6 receptions with at least six catches in six of those eight starts.
Now he faces a Bills defense missing star linebacker Matt Milano (bicep), forcing the likes of Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams to defend one of the game's best tight ends.
The Cardinals targeted the middle of the field at the NFL's fourth-highest rate last year, and if McBride finishes with six or more catches on Sunday, we'll earn a cool $10.50 in profit for every $10 wagered.
Best odds: +105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 48.78%
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