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NFL Best Bets & Odds Week 1

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 6, 2024 11:28 AM EDT • 5 min 25 sec read.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow heads for the locker room before a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow heads for the locker room before a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Photo by Sam Greene/The Enquirer via USA TODAY Network.

The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs kicked off the NFL season in exciting fashion on Thursday night, and the focus of our NFL best bets shifts to the remaining Week 1 games throughout the weekend.

The Week 1 slate has a unique look, with the game between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles from Brazil being the first Friday game on the opening weekend since 1970.

Though fans will be eager to watch the highly anticipated debuts of three rookie quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, and Jayden Daniels), it's a veteran signal-caller looking to make a second career Super Bowl appearance who we're focusing on.

In all, 10 of the 15 games have consensus spreads of 3.5 points or lower, which should make for an exciting and competitive opening weekend of NFL action.

For a closer look at all of the action, be sure to check out our NFL predictions for Week 1, as well as the NFL Week 1 odds and betting lines!

Best NFL bets for Week 1

NFL odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Week 1 NFL odds & schedule

(Odds via bet365)

  • Green Bay Packers (+2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2), Friday at 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-6.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Carolina Panthers (+4) vs. New Orleans Saints (-4), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Houston Texans (-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+3), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (-3.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs. New York Giants (+1.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • New England Patriots (+8.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Tennessee Titans (+3.5) vs. Chicago Bears (-3.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Denver Broncos (+6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Las Vegas Raiders (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Washington Commanders (+3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) vs. Detroit Lions (-4.5), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • New York Jets (+4.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4.5), Monday at 8:20 p.m. ET

NFL player props for Week 1

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change.

Trey McBride Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Arizona Cardinals were one of two teams in the NFL last season whose leading receiver was a tight end (Travis Kelce being the other), which made drafting wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. a no-brainer.

I expect the focus defenses pay to Harrison to pay huge dividends for McBride over the middle of the field, where the Buffalo Bills’ best cover linebacker, Matt Milano, won't be after suffering a torn pec.

When Kyler Murray returned from injury last year, McBride was the overall top tight end in terms of fantasy points per game and target share. Considering he had the fewest percentage of his points come from touchdowns of the top 10 tight ends last year, we're focusing on his receiving yards prop.

Our other best sports betting sites have McBride’s O/U set slightly higher (50.5 at FanDuel) or are juiced as high as -120 (DraftKings) to back the Over of 49.5.

Thus, the best combination of number and price is at bet365, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Joe Burrow Under 23.5 completions (-108) ⭐⭐⭐

Burrow’s injuries are becoming a concern among Cincinnati Bengals fans, as he's missed six-plus games in two of the last three seasons. Even if Burrow wasn't coming back from a torn wrist ligament, he's always been better at the end of seasons when healthy rather than the beginning.

In games one through nine in his career, Burrow has led the Bengals to 23.6 points per game while posting a 54 total QBR and averaging 7.3 yards per attempt.

In games 10 through 17, the Bengals average 26.7 points per game with Burrow under center, while he posted a 62 total QBR and averaged 7.8 yards per attempt.

This is a three-star play, as Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, who ranked in the top three in scrimmage yards for Cincinnati in 2023 (they combined for 36% of the team’s total scrimmage yards) are no longer with the team.

There is also the Ja’Marr Chase contract situation. If he doesn't suit up, it's a massive loss considering he's demanded a 24% target share and averaged 6.0 yards after the catch since 2021. Additionally, fellow wideout Tee Higgins wasn't seen participating at practice on Friday.

Burrow’s O/U for passing attempts is 33.5, which has me confident that he will not complete more than 70.5% of his projected passes (based on him going 24-of-34).

A winning $10 wager pays out $19.26.

Best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%

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NFL game picks for Week 1

Panthers-Saints Over 41.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Carolina Panthers' offense was dreadful in 2023, scoring a league-worst 12.6 offensive points per game and averaging 4.1 yards per play (also the worst in the league).

However, the last two quarterbacks coached by new head coach Dave Canales, Geno Smith in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023, posted career highs in completion percentage, passing yards, and touchdowns, and I expect that magic to rub off on Bryce Young in his second year.

Additionally, New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr posted a 21-6 TD-INT ratio, a 63 total QBR, and 7.6 yards per attempt while winning eight of 12 starts against teams under .500 last year.

BetMGM is higher than the rest of our best sports betting apps with an O/U of 42, while FanDuel is the only one that has the Over juiced lower than -108.

A winning $10 wager at these -105 odds returns $9.52 in profit.

Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%

Vikings-Giants Under 41.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When Sam Darnold started at quarterback for the New York Jets from 2018 to 2020, his 46 turnovers were tied for the fifth-most in the league, and his 17 turnovers were tied for the sixth-most in his lone season as the Panthers starter in 2021.

Darnold will start the season with the Minnesota Vikings without one of his best weapons, as T.J. Hockenson - who ranked second among tight ends in receptions, receiving yards per game, 20-yard receptions, and first downs - begins the season on the PUP list.

Meanwhile, I don't expect the New York Giants' offense to come storming out of the gate after the loss of Saquon Barkley.

Barkley accounted for 39% of the team’s touches and 32% of the scrimmage touchdowns over the last two seasons, and Daniel Jones ranks 25th or lower out of 34 qualified quarterbacks since 2019 in total QBR, passing touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, and turnovers, even with a healthy Barkley for most of that.

The slightly extra -115 juice to back the Under at FanDuel is worth it considering, since our other sites with the best sportsbook promos have an O/U of 41.

A $10 winning wager pays out $18.70.

Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%

NFL betting odds pages

Super Bowl OddsNFL MVP OddsNFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds
NFL Defensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Offensive Rookie of the Year OddsNFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
NFL Coach of the Year OddsNFL Comeback Player of the Year OddsNFL Win Totals Odds
NFL Playoff OddsNFL Draft Odds

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”