NFL Week 1 Betting Takeaways: What Changed for Week 2
Here is your annual reminder: we all think we know how the NFL season will go until precisely 1 p.m. ET on the first Sunday of Week 1.
We were immediately treated to chaos when the Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5), who entered the week as the biggest favorites, lost outright to the New England Patriots - the biggest long shots by the preseason Super Bowl odds.
Chicago Bears rookie Caleb Williams, the clear front-runner by the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, also struggled to find any rhythm even as his team pulled off a comeback win over the Tennessee Titans.
Here's a look at our NFL Week 2 odds and predictions after what we saw in Week 1.
Bengals shaky in season opener
Cincinnati has made a habit of starting slow in recent seasons, even if it typically comes around by season's end. But this certainly wasn't the way any Bengals fan (or futures bettor) hoped the 2024 season would kick off.
Joe Burrow and Co. didn't even score a single point through nearly the first 45 minutes of the game, and the NFL MVP odds contender finished with just 164 yards and zero touchdowns in a 16-10 home loss in Patriots coach Jerod Mayo's debut.
It was eerily reminiscent of last season, when Burrow had zero TDs in three of his first four games before turning it on ... and ultimately getting hurt. His receiving corps was in better shape a year ago, though, and those injury issues linger.
Our best sports betting sites share those concerns, dropping the Bengals' Super Bowl odds from +1500 entering the week to as high as +2000 at Caesars after Week 1.
Jackson's advice: I was high on the Bengals' upside entering the year, but I opted against betting them before Week 1. Why? Because this sort of start is always on the table for Zac Taylor, who is 1-5 in season openers. I'm compelled by these long odds, but I'm curious if they'll get even better after a trip to Kansas City in Week 2.
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Rookie QBs struggle in NFL debuts
Remember when everyone handed Caleb Williams the Offensive Rookie of the Year award before he ever took a snap in a regular-season game?
He'll clearly have to work his way back to that point after a dispiriting debut for the No. 1 pick, who finished a ghastly 14-for-29 for 93 yards and zero touchdowns. He was also sacked twice and didn't complete a pass longer than 13 yards.
Chicago's defense and special teams stepped up to secure a 24-17 win, which helped Williams maintain the top spot in this race - though his +165 odds via DraftKings are a step back from his +140 odds entering the year.
Part of the reason his odds didn't drop even further? His contemporaries weren't much better.
Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (184 yards) ran for 88 yards and two TDs but was ineffective as a passer in a 37-20 blowout loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bo Nix (138 yards) also ran one in but was blanked through the air in the Denver Broncos' 26-20 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Even Marvin Harrison Jr., the top non-QB drafted in this year's rookie class, finished with one catch for four yards in the Arizona Cardinals' 34-28 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
At this point, it seems as though Xavier Worthy - who scored two touchdowns for the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday - might have a legitimate shot to win this award. He's dealing at +1000 via DraftKings, which would return a profit of $100 on a $10 bet.
Jackson's advice: This is still Williams' award to lose, so his 37.74% implied probability at these +165 odds has me intrigued. He can't play much worse, right? That said, I'd be hedging any bet on the Bears QB with long shots in a race that already seems like it'll be weird and wild. Drake Maye at 35/1 has my attention.
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Race to the bottom for Panthers, Giants
Even if you thought this season could be rough for the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, it was hard to watch what unfolded in the early window on Sunday.
Sophomore QB Bryce Young threw a pick on the Panthers' first offensive play of the 2024 season - a harbinger of tough times ahead in a demoralizing 47-10 loss to the rival New Orleans Saints.
It wasn't much better for Giants passer Daniel Jones, who threw two picks and completed just 22 of 42 passes in a 28-6 loss to the visiting Minnesota Vikings.
One of those two teams seems likely to finish with the No. 1 overall pick at this rate - and which team wins that battle could have a major impact on the betting market.
New York desperately needs a fresh face under center, and quarterbacks Shedeur Sanders and Carson Beck are the early favorites to go first overall by the latest NFL draft odds.
Yet if the Panthers finish last, there's a strong case to be made for a defensive star like Tennessee's James Pearce Jr. (+650 via FanDuel) or Georgia's Mykel Williams (+2000 via bet365) to be the top pick.
Jackson's advice: I'd be jumping all over Williams' odds right now at bet365 with the Panthers, Patriots, and Broncos among the likely bottom-feeders who recently drafted QBs. If any one of them land the No. 1 pick, I'd be awfully surprised if they draft a signal-caller, even though the betting market is priced for one to go first.
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