Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props, Odds Week 6: Predictions for Broncos vs. Chiefs on TNF
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football, as we make our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Patrick Mahomes isn’t off to a dominant start. He’s currently seventh in the league in total passing yards, tied for the 12th-most interceptions, and he’s just 18th in completion percentage. He also only has one 300-yard game.
Mahomes has never lost to the Broncos. In his career, he’s averaging 269 yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game against his division rival. Last season, he threw for more than 300 yards in both matchups.
To accompany our Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions, here our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions, and don't miss our Broncos vs. Chiefs NFL player props (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for Week 6
- Patrick Mahomes Over 269.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 completions (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Patrick Mahomes player props
Patrick Mahomes Over 269.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
For all the struggles that Mahomes has had this season, he has thrown for Over 270 yards in three of his five games. The only times he’s failed to hit that mark was when he played the Detroit Lions and New York Jets, two of the better defenses in football.
The Broncos’ defense is allowing 281.8 passing yards per game. They’ve allowed two 300-yard passers, and Sam Howell threw for 299 against them. Mahomes dominated this defense last season, combining for 680 yards in his two starts.
This is only a three-star play because the Chiefs could get a huge lead in this game and just run the ball. The Broncos have the worst run defense in football. That could mean a massive night from Isiah Pacheco, as Mahomes comfortably hits 200 yards but stops throwing the ball in the second half.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one of his games this season. However, he’s only thrown three in one game. Last season, Mahomes threw three or more touchdown passes in eight regular-season games. Two of those eight performances came against the Broncos.
Travis Kelce is expected to play tonight, and while he may be limited because of his ankle, he should be available for goal-line opportunities. It’s hard to imagine the Broncos having much success stopping the duo from scoring. The Broncos have allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season. Two of their opponents threw four against them.
Our Rodrigo Villagomez looks at his favorite Travis Kelce NFL player props for TNF.
The price for this prop varies at our best sports betting apps. Prices as low as +120 are out there, so make sure you bet where the payout is most valuable.
Our Esten McLaren looks at who one of Mahomes' touchdowns may go to with his anytime and first touchdown scorer prediction for TNF.
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Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 completions (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
This play is heavily based on the assumption that the Chiefs are going to run the ball successfully in this game. Over the last three weeks, Pacheco has gotten at least 15 carries in each game. In those games, Mahomes has completed more than 25 passes just once.
The Broncos are allowing 11.1 passing yards per completion. That’s the sixth-worst in the NFL. Mahomes and the Chiefs are averaging 10.2 yards per completion, which is just 14th-best in the league. In tonight’s matchup, we expect Mahomes to go Over his season average against a weak secondary.
With big plays and a lack of necessity to throw late in the game, we like this Under. We do recommend taking the highest number you can find for the best price. FanDuel is offering Under 24.5 for -114, but we think Under 25.5 for -120 is a safer play.
Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made 10/12/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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