Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction, Picks, Odds Week 6: Thursday Night Football
The Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs for Thursday Night Football of the NFL's Week 6, and our top Broncos-Chiefs prediction is based on the best NFL odds.
The Denver Broncos coughed up a 13-8 halftime lead against the New York Jets in Week 5, marking their 10th straight loss when leading after two quarters, including three already this season.
On the other hand, the Kansas City Chiefs secured their fourth consecutive win, although three of them were by just one possession. They hold a 1.5-game lead in the AFC West.
Notably, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes maintains a perfect 11-0 record against the Broncos throughout his career. Moreover, Kansas City has extended its dominance with 15 consecutive victories against the Broncos, a streak that ranks as the third-longest in NFL history.
To kick off our NFL predictions for Week 6, here is our best Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction for Thursday Night Football as we look at the best NFL Week 6 odds; don't miss our NFL player props for Week 6 (TNF odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: Thursday Night Football
Under 51.5 (-112 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
Editor's note: The total has now moved to 47.5 at nearly all of our best sportsbooks, with most offering standard -110 odds on both sides of the wager. Caesars is the only exception while sitting on 47. Our Broncos-Chiefs parlay targets this lower total.
A wager on the Under involving the Broncos is a risky proposition, especially after they allowed 31 points to the Jets despite New York not scoring a single touchdown on five red-zone possessions. And while Denver has allowed 28-plus points in four consecutive games, tied for its longest streak since the 1970 merger, there are still plenty of reasons to believe this Thursday night tilt will be lower-scoring than expected.
Denver has allowed 171-plus yards rushing in four consecutive games and was the latest victim of Breece Hall, whose 171 rushing yards were the most by a Jets running back since Isaiah Crowell in 2018. That does not figure to get much better against a Chiefs offense that ranks in the top 12 in the league in rushing (123 yards per game), especially since Denver will likely continue to employ its base nickel defense to respect Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs passing attack.
Travis Kelce's ankle injury last week must not have been all that serious, as he returned in the third quarter to catch a touchdown pass. However, there is no telling how the ankle could swell up postgame. Kelce was listed as out on Monday's unofficial team injury report, but he was able to return to the practice field and participate in drills Tuesday.
Our Rodrigo Villagomez makes his top Travis Kelce NFL player props for Thursday night.
In addition, these teams play each other twice over the next three weeks, so we would not be surprised to see the Chiefs employ more of a ground-and-pound style on a short week to save some of the playbook for their return meeting in Denver.
This is a three-star play, as Kansas City's defense has allowed 14.8 points per game during its four-game winning streak and held all opponents to 20 or fewer points. Thus, even though Russell Wilson's 11 touchdown passes are the most by a Broncos quarterback through five games since Peyton Manning in 2014, he may not possess the ball long enough to add to those numbers if his defense cannot get off the field Thursday.
Want more action on Thursday Night Football? Our Rodrigo Villagomez offers his Broncos vs. Chiefs NFL player props, Phil Wood makes his best Patrick Mahomes NFL player props, and Esten McLaren makes his best anytime and first touchdown scorer predictions.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs best odds
BetRivers (-112)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 51 | 50.5 | 50.5 | 50.5 |
| Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) |
Under backers will find the best number at BetRivers compared to our other five best sports betting apps, as its total is as much as a full point higher than some of its competitors.
Denver has been the second-most profitable Over team this season, cashing it in four of five games, while the Under is 3-2 in Kansas City's five contests. The Over cashed in the previous three meetings between these teams by an average of 9.7 points.
Broncos vs. Chiefs odds
Broncos vs. Chiefs odds analysis
The total opened at 50.5 at FanDuel on Sunday night and was quickly bet to 51.5 within the first hour before coming back down a half-point. Conversely, the total opened higher at 51.5 at BetMGM, and Under backers drove the line down to 50.5 by Monday morning. Early wagers are 75/25 in support of the Over.
All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with Kansas City as a 10.5-point favorite, with FanDuel juiced the highest (-115 odds) to lay the points with the favorites. There has not yet been any point spread movement in the NFL Week 6 odds, but it could come soon, as an overwhelming 85% of early wagers have backed the Chiefs. Mahomes is 44-44-1 ATS as a favorite in his career but is just 10-13-1 ATS when his teams are favored by double digits.
Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- How to watch: PRIME VIDEO
- Weather: 82 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, wind 16 mph SSE
Broncos-Chiefs prediction made 10/9/23 at 6:29 a.m. ET
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