Broncos vs. Chiefs Parlay: SGP Odds, Prediction for TNF
Our Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs parlay predictions are based on the best NFL odds, as we’re looking for the Kansas City running game to become the latest unit to exploit the pitiful Denver rush defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) haven’t necessarily dominated their opponents in their typical fashion through five weeks of the season, but the pedigree remains for another championship run as we make our Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction for Thursday Night Football.
Will Kansas City handle the Denver Broncos (1-4) with relative ease or might the Chiefs play down to their competition on Thursday night?
Here are our best Broncos vs. Chiefs parlay predictions to accompany our Broncos-Chiefs NFL player props (TNF odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Broncos vs. Chiefs parlay for TNF
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Isiah Pacheco Over 74.5 rushing yards (-135) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Under 47 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
- Skyy Moore Under 23.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +550 via DraftKings
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SGP predictions for Broncos vs. Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco Over 74.5 rushing yards (-135) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco could be due for a productive day on the ground facing a Denver defense that has been more generous to opposing running backs than any team in the league. The Broncos allow an NFL-worst 187.6 rushing yards per game, with three different leading rushers eclipsing 100 rushing yards against them
Pacheco has established himself as the primary ball carrier for Kansas City, drawing 15 or more carries in each of his last three games. Though Pacheco has cleared this aggressive rushing line only once on the season, he hasn’t faced a run defense like this one.
Pacheco’s line at DraftKings is juiced heavily to -135 while Caesars’ odds are -129. Those yardage marks are more attainable at 74.5 and 75.5, respectively, compared to the 77.5 (-110) line posted at FanDuel.
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Under 47 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Although conventional wisdom would suggest the mighty Chiefs should need little help from Denver in clearing this total against a woeful Broncos defense, there’s some risk in Kansas City playing down to its competition. While KC exposed the Chicago Bears for 41 points, that game was the only time this season we’ve seen the Chiefs have a game finish with more than 47 total points.
NFL teams have no regard (rightfully) for the gambling implications of their decisions and we’ve already seen a conservative goal-line slide by Patrick Mahomes lead to a missed cover by KC in this season. If you're willing to hop back on the bandwagon, our Phil Wood makes his best Patrick Mahomes NFL player props.
DraftKings and Caesars list the game total at 47 points with standard -110 odds on Under. FanDuel has dropped the total to 46.5 but offers more favorable -105 odds on Under as a trade-off for the less attractive line.
Skyy Moore Under 23.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
For a season that presented a clear opportunity for Skyy Moore to break out in a Mahomes-led offense, the second-year wide receiver has not looked explosive or special in any way. While Moore has played north of 50% of snaps in every game this season, he has accumulated just nine receptions and 123 yards.
In two of the team’s five games, Moore has failed to catch a single pass, relegating himself largely to cardio duties in the Kansas City offense. He’s piled up just two total catches for 11 yards in his last two games. Though the Denver secondary is pitiful, I’m fading Moore until he gives me a reason to do otherwise. Rod Villagomez's Travis Kelce NFL player props look at Mahomes' true No. 1 target.
Moore’s receiving line sits at 23.5 yards at each of our three NFL parlay betting sites under SGP consideration, but Caesars has juiced the line on Under to -133. Plugging in the prop at DraftKings and FanDuel lands our total parlay odds at +550 for both books, so we’ll play it at DraftKings, which has the more favorable line on Pacheco's rushing yards.
Broncos-Chiefs parlay picks made 10/12/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
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