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Lamar Jackson NFL Player Props, Odds Thursday Night Football: Predictions for Bengals vs. Ravens

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 16, 2023 5:41 PM EST • 4 min 30 sec read.

The Baltimore Ravens can complete a season sweep of the Cincinnati Bengals in their Week 11 Thursday Night Football battle, and we have you covered with our top Lamar Jackson player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) are in last place in the AFC North, highlighting the division's strength. Only one other division in the league boasts three teams at .500. For the third consecutive season, the Bengals have sustained a 5-4 record through nine games. They achieved a four-game sweep of NFC West teams but encountered difficulties with a 1-4 record against the AFC.

In Week 2, the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) halted Cincinnati's seven-game home winning streak dating back to last season with a 27-24 road triumph. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, who boasts a 7-1 all-time record in starts against the Bengals (the last two wins totaling a five-point difference), has emerged victorious in three of his four head-to-head matchups with Joe Burrow.

Along with our Bengals vs. Ravens prediction, Bengals vs. Ravens SGP, Bengals-Ravens props, Ja'Marr Chase player props, Joe Burrow props, here are our best Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions for the Bengals vs. Ravens Week 11 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions for Thursday Night Football

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Lamar Jackson player props

Lamar Jackson Over 42.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Editor's note: This total has now risen to 46.5 through FanDuel, which is roughly in line with that rest of our best sportsbooks.

Lamar Jackson has run for 43-plus yards in just two of his last five starts but has exceeded that total in seven of eight starts against Cincinnati. This projected total is more-or-less right on par with his 43.2 rushing yards average over his last five starts, but he faces a Bengals defense that is likely without two of their best pass rushers, Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson.

One school of thought is that if Jackson is not under as much pressure, he will not need to tuck and run as much. Still, we expect Todd Monken to dial up plenty of designed rushes for Jackson, especially since he is coming off his worst passing game of the season with 13 completions and a 56.5% completion percentage against the Cleveland Browns.

We are getting excellent value with the O/U at FanDuel, as our other best sports betting apps have an O/U of 44.5, with DraftKings juiced the highest to the Over at -120. 

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Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown scorer (+175 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Jackson has a 12-4 TD-INT ratio and two rushing touchdowns in eight starts against the Bengals, but we still expect him to find the endzone on Thursday, given Cincinnati's poor run defense.

Cincinnati has allowed 5.0 yards per rush (ranks 31st), 136.2 rushing yards per game (30th), and its 30% first-down percentage on the ground ranks dead-last. The Bengals just allowed 188 rush yards to the Houston Texans, the second-most they have allowed this season, and they rank 17th in Defensive Efficiency, per ESPN Analytics.

Jackson ran for 54 yards on 12 carries in their Week 2 meeting. Cincinnati has allowed rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in consecutive games against the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen and Houston Texans' C.J. Stroud. This is a three-star play, as 34.7% of opponents' possessions against the Bengals have reached the red zone or ended in touchdowns prior (third-most in the league), and Cincinnati has allowed a first down or touchdown every 3.1 plays (the highest rate in the league), per Sharp Football Analysis.

Make sure to find the best value on this prop using our FanDuel promo code, as the next-highest price at any competing shop is +125 at DraftKings and bet365.

Lamar Jackson Under 0.5 interceptions (-115 via BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Jackson has gone without an interception in three of the last four games. Given Cincinnati's inability to stop the run and its pass defense ranking in the top 11 in both completion rate (62.8%) and touchdown rate (3.3%), we expect Baltimore to employ more of a ground-and-pound approach. 

When Jackson does drop back to pass, his 70.3% completion percentage and 7.9 yards per attempt are on pace to be career-bests. In addition, Cincinnati has faced 43 dropbacks without Hubbard and Hendrickson on the field, and opposing quarterbacks have completed 75% of their passes and averaged over 11 yards per attempt, per Sharp Football Analysis. 

This would be a more confident four-star play if Jackson did not go 1-for-5 passing for 11 yards and an interception in the fourth quarter of last week's loss. He is not the most trustworthy quarterback when the game is tight, but we expect Baltimore to lead late and turn to workhorse running back Gus Edwards more, as he has seven rushing touchdowns over the previous four games.

The Under of 0.5 interceptions is juiced to -119 and -124 at some of our other best sports betting sites, so the best price resides at BetMGM or bet365.

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Lamar Jackson player prop picks made 11/15/2023 at 6:27 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”