Bills vs. Commanders Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Washington Under-Valued at Home
The Buffalo Bills visit the Washington Commanders in a Week 3 showdown, and we have our top Bills vs. Commanders predictions based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
The Washington Commanders won another one-score contest with a 35-33 road victory over the Denver Broncos in Week 2. It’s also all the more impressive considering the Commanders faced a 21-3 deficit in the second quarter.
It wasn’t nearly as difficult for the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. They cruised to a 38-10 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, and quarterback Josh Allen tossed three touchdown passes. The defense also showed up and generated three turnovers while holding the Raiders to a pedestrian 240 yards of offense.
To help with your NFL best bets for Week 3, here is our best Bills vs. Commanders prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bills vs. Commanders prediction
Commanders +6.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
This line is incredibly confusing. The Bills are one of the Super Bowl favorites, and the Commanders are 2-0 after beating two teams with a combined 0-4 record by a total of six points. So, why are our best sports betting apps giving the Bills a free half-point in this game?
The Bills are not the same team on the road as they are at home. Their loss to the New York Jets in Week 1 was a disappointment, but last season, whether they won or lost, five of their eight road matchups were decided by four or fewer points. When playing in Buffalo, only the Miami Dolphins kept the score within a field goal over the last two seasons.
The Bills’ road struggles could be amplified this week if rainy conditions persist. The only question is, can the Commanders get their rushing attack going? They averaged just 107 rushing yards per game, though Washington running back Brian Robinson Jr. did have 87 yards and two touchdowns last week.
The Bills certainly can blow the Commanders out Sunday. But this line is very suspect, and the field conditions will prevent the Bills from being their usual explosive selves. Don’t take the bait. Back the Commanders at home with your NFL predictions for Week 3, against a team that's been far from great on the road in recent seasons.
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Bills vs. Commanders best odds
DraftKings (-108)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 |
| -108 | -118 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
While all of our best sports betting sites have the same spread for this game, prices vary greatly. FanDuel currently offers the worst price at -118, while BetMGM isn’t far behind at -115. Caesars and bet365 have the standard -110, so DraftKings offers the best price of -108.
If you're on the Commanders, it’s best to get in as soon as possible. These prices suggest the spread will move toward Washington before going to the key number. Wager at DraftKings for a very fair price.
Bills vs. Commanders odds
Bills vs. Commanders odds analysis
The Bills opened as 6.5-point favorites and the line hasn't moved despite them receiving 57% of wagers. Weather could play a significant role in the style of play in this contest. It seems oddsmakers are unwilling to go to the key number when rain could give the Commanders a significant home-field advantage.
The total opened at 43 points, and the number either stayed put or moved to 43.5 at each of our best sportsbooks. At the moment, bettors are split right down the middle on this total, with 50% backing the Over and Under. Don’t expect much movement with this line, as even if weather is a factor, the Bills can score a lot against this defense.
Bills vs. Commanders game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
- Where: FedExField, Landover, MD
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 65 degrees, 80% chance of precipitation, 18-mph winds
Bills vs. Commanders prediction made Friday, 9/22/23 at 11:05 a.m. ET
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