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NFL Best Bets Week 3: Will Cowboys, Chiefs Dominate as Heavy favorites?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 24, 2023 11:32 AM EDT • 5 min 58 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

There are nine undefeated NFL teams and nine winless squads as Week 3 continues, and we share several of our NFL Best Bets for Week 3 based on the top NFL odds.

In Week 3, three out of nine winless teams are the favorites: the New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals. The Patriots, in particular, bring a 14-game head-to-head winning streak into their matchup against the New York Jets after starting 0-2 for the first time since 2001.

Last week was a live bettor’s dream, as four teams overcame deficits of 10-plus points to earn victories.      

Here are our NFL best bets and NFL picks for Week 3 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Week 3

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Week 3 NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via Caesars)

  • Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions (-3)
  • New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers (-2)
  • Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders
  • Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
  • Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
  • New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. New York Jets
  • Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins (-6.5)
  • Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1)
  • Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
  • Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
  • Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-13)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

NFL predictions for Week 3

Keenan Allen anytime touchdown scorer (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This week’s clash between the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings is the only one with a projected total above 50 (54), so we're excited to grab one of the best skill-position players in this matchup to score a touchdown.

Allen is coming off a 10-target, eight-reception game where he totaled 111 receiving yards and scored two touchdowns. He is being used differently this year, as his 10.7 air yards per target is his highest in the Next Gen Stats era. Allen is on pace for 1,600 yards and plays for a team that is the first in NFL history to start 0-2 despite scoring 50-plus points and having zero giveaways through the first two games. 

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The Chargers rank dead-last in total defense and have allowed the most touchdowns, and are facing Kirk Cousins, who is the first quarterback in NFL history to start 0-2 despite having a completion percentage of at least 70%, 700-plus passing yards, and six or more passing touchdowns in the first two games of a season. Thus, we expect Los Angeles to feel the need to keep up offensively and should force-feed its best wide receiver all game.

The +140 odds found at bet365 are the best when shopping around at our best sports betting apps. Our Philip Wood is also leaning toward the Over in his Chargers-Vikings prediction.

Nico Collins Over 53.5 receiving yards vs. Jaguars (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Even the most accomplished fantasy football pundits would likely be shocked to learn that the Houston Texans are the only team in the NFL with three wide receivers in the top 35 of fantasy points scored. That will happen when playing with C.J. Stroud, whose  91 pass attempts are the third-most in the league. In addition, Stroud’s 58 completions through his first two starts are the second-most by a rookie in their first two starts since at least 1950.

Collins has been a big beneficiary of Houston’s volume passing attack, as he has garnered a 24% target share, nearly half of Houston’s air yards, and has six receptions of 20-plus yards, second-most in the league. Collins is averaging 10 targets and 113 yards per game, while the Jacksonville Jaguars are in the top third of yards allowed to wide receivers.

This is a solid four-star play, as the Jaguars are 9-point favorites, and the Texans are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games as underdogs of a touchdown or more, which means a negative game script should benefit Collins in the passing game. Our Philip Wood agrees that Collins is positioned for a massive day in his Texans-Jaguars prediction.

All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with the line of 53.5, but this is the cheapest Over on the board. For more, check out our NFL predictions for Week 3.

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James Conner Under 54.5 rushing yards vs. Cowboys (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Dallas Cowboys defense has been phenomenal, allowing 10 points through the first two games. That is the fewest points allowed among teams who accumulated 10-plus sacks and five-plus interceptions through two games since 1963. Meanwhile, Dallas leads the NFL in scoring, QBR, and turnover differential and has an NFL-best seven drives of 10-plus plays. All of that will negatively affect James Conner, as Arizona will likely be in catch-up mode for most of the game, which is why we're also taking Dallas to cover in our Cowboys-Cardinals prediction.

The Dallas Cowboys' defense has been highly effective in containing star running backs this season, holding Saquon Barkley to only 63 total yards and limiting the potent Jets backfield, featuring Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook, to just 3.2 fantasy points in their respective matchups. Impressively, Dallas has allowed a mere 89 rushing yards to opposing running backs across two games, suggesting that even a prominent runner like Conner will face significant challenges in finding running lanes against this formidable defensive unit.

With most of the best sportsbooks charging -115 to back the Under, we are headed to bet365 to pay the standard juice for the same total.

Chiefs -12.5 vs. Bears (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Kansas City Chiefs are tied with the Cowboys as the biggest favorites on the Week 3 slate, but even the 12.5-point spread feels too low against a Chicago Bears team that has lost 12 straight games and failed to cover nine of their last 10. However, in our Chiefs-Bears prediction we expect Justin Fields to put on a scrambling showcase.

Chicago has lost 12 straight road games and allowed 25-plus points in each. The Bears have allowed 22 or more fantasy points to quarterbacks in five of their last eight games, so this should be a perfect opportunity for the Chiefs to gain offensive momentum after two slow starts.

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Fifty-six of Patrick Mahomes’ 80 pass attempts have been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and 87% of his passing yards have come after the catch. Mahomes needs 228 pass yards to reach 25,000 and four passing touchdowns to reach 200 for his career, so head coach Andy Reid will likely be aware of those accolades and will try to allow him to achieve those feats at home, as the team is on the road next week. Our own Philip Wood expects plenty of fireworks in his Mahomes prop picks.

This is a four-star play, as Bears defensive coordinator Alan Williams abruptly resigned on Wednesday after the team ranked 28th in Defensive Efficiency through two games. In addition, quarterback Justin Fields stirred up controversy with his comments about the team’s play-calling, and he is without starting left tackle Braxton Jones, who was placed on injured reserve with a neck injury.

NFL best bets made 9/21/2023 at 6:59 a.m. ET.

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NFL betting odds pages

Super Bowl OddsNFL Defensive Rookie of the Year OddsNFL Sacks Leader Odds
NFL MVP OddsNFL Comeback Player of the Year OddsNFL Best Record Odds
NFL Offensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Passing Yards OddsNFL Worst Record Odds
NFL Defensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Rushing Yards OddsNFL Win Totals Odds
NFL Coach of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Receiving Yards OddsNFL Draft Odds
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”