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Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears features in our Bears vs. Chiefs predictions.
Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears runs past Ryan Neal #23 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while scoring a touchdown during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP

The winless Chicago Bears and quarterback Justin Fields travel to face the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, as we share our top Bears-Chiefs predictions based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

It's been a hell of a week at Halas Hall. After falling to 0-2 this season, Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Alan Williams retired abruptly to deal with health and family issues. Then, Bears quarterback Justin Fields caused a firestorm after he seemed to critique the team's coaching and touted it as a reason he's playing "robotic."

That’s a lot to unpack, and while those fires might now just be coals, things won’t be easier for the Bears in Week 3. They have the luxury of traveling to Arrowhead Stadium for a date with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, and an 0-3 start would surely be a death knell to any playoff hopes for the fans in the Windy City.

For more on the matchup, our Philip Wood offers Patrick Mahomes player prop picks.

Here is our best Bears-Chiefs prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bears vs. Chiefs prediction

Justin Fields Over 58.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

"My goal this week is to say, 'F it' and go out there and play football how I know how to play football," Fields said in his media availability Wednesday, after he threw two interceptions and ran just four times for three yards in a 27-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Prior to Week 2, we believed Fields when the passer said he'd take more chances throwing the ball, and that cashed our +105 bet on him to throw a pick. We're returning to the well in our NFL Week 3 predictions after Fields said he wants to lean more on instincts.

We won't discuss in here whether or not he's taking the right approach following an 0-2 start, but we will capitalize when the player provides a hint towards how Sunday's action might play out.

Fields, a dual-threat quarterback, finished seventh in the league in rushing last year with 1,143 yards, eclipsing the totals from Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, and Austin Ekeler. He also owns the regular-season record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a single game.

Fields has surpassed this modest rushing total in 10 of his last 12 games, including the 59 yards he ran for in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers. Books are overcorrecting to the low total Fields put up against the Bucs, a team that ranks second in rushing defense and that has finished in the top three in three of the last four years.

The third-year passer also seemed to suggest that he'd been instructed to play more from the pocket. Now, he intends to play more free and seems to have been given the go ahead from head coach Matt Eberflus.

"We want him to do that," Eberflus said. "He feels that presence in the pocket where he's got pressure and he sees a place where he can work to either do a scramble drill, throw the ball down the field or take off and go."

We'd like him to do that, too, Coach.


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Bears vs. Chiefs best odds

FanDuel (-114)

Fields Over 58.5 rushing yardsFields Over 55.5 rushing yardsFields Over 58.5 rushing yardsFields Over 58.5 rushing yardsFields Over 58.5 rushing yards

The Over/Under on Fields' rushing yards varies at our best sports betting apps. While BetRivers is offering the best price on Over 58.5 rushing yards, FanDuel has even better odds and three less yards to reach.

Bears vs. Chiefs odds

Bears vs. Chiefs odds analysis

The point spread opened at Chiefs -11.5, but jumped to -12.5 after the Week 2 outcomes. There are a few -13.5s popping up on the market as 73% of the wagers are on the Chiefs.

The total opened at 48.5, but after low-scoring performances from both teams last week, it's down to 48 at a number of books, and 47.5 at Caesars. There's a 50/50 betting split on the Over/Under at this point.

Bears vs. Chiefs game info

  • When: Sunday, Sept. 24 at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: 74 degrees, partly sunny, 15% chance of precipitation

Bears-Chiefs prediction made Thursday at 1:18 p.m. ET

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