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Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and we offer new U.S. bettors our exclusive BetRivers promo code.
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images via AFP.

Our top Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions are based on the best NFL odds for Sunday’s Bears-Chiefs matchup. Is Mahomes going to turn in one of his patented performances, or will his ho-hum start to the 2023 season continue?

It’s tough to nitpick a two-time NFL MVP, but Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes just hasn’t been showing off the wow factor we’ve become accustomed to seeing since taking over as the No. 1 QB in KC in 2018.

He definitely lands in a cupcake matchup against the 0-2 Chicago Bears in Week 3. So is this the Sunday he shows off and stacks it up statistically?

Here are our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for the Bears-Chiefs Week 3 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for Week 3

Patrick Mahomes player props

Patrick Mahomes Over 284.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Chiefs may not need Mahomes to throw for this many yards, but that won't stop him from doing so as we look at our NFL Week 3 predictions. In Week 1, he threw for just 226 yards, but his receivers dropped four balls. Those drops were on passes that would have wracked up significant yards, so don’t think too much emphasis should be placed on that game.

With tight end Travis Kelce back, the Chiefs’ offense looked much better last week, even if it only managed 17 points. Mahomes completed passes to 11 different receivers, and it seems like he's becoming more comfortable with the group he has.

The Bears’ defense hasn't good in 2023, allowing 245 passing yards to Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love and 317 to Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield. The Chiefs need a blowout. This is their opportunity, and we don’t expect Chiefs head coach Andy Reid to take his foot off the gas. Mahomes should produce his second consecutive 300-yard passing game.

Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 completions (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes completed 21 passes in Week 1, and 29 in Week 2. Dating back to last season, he threw more than 25 completions in 10 of his last 22 matchups. Seven of 10 contests were one-score affairs.

This meeting won't be a one-score game, so the odds are Mahomes throws fewer than 26 completions. Even if Mahomes racks up a lot of passing yards, he’ll do it with few completions, as his receivers rattle off chunk plays against a weak secondary.

Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+124 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

So far this season, the Chiefs scored four touchdowns. Every single one was a passing TD from Mahomes. Their rushing attack struggled to start the year, and with running back Isiah Pacheco banged up ahead of this one, it could struggle again.

The Bears allowed four passing TDs this season. Three of those came in Week 1 against Love. Even with Kansas City’s offense not looking their best, Mahomes’ numbers are good by league standards. The Chiefs won't score a lot in this game, and most of their points will be because of Mahomes’ arm.

Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made 9/23/2023 at 10:02 a.m. ET.

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