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Dodgers vs. Giants NLDS Game 5 Picks and Odds Analysis

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Dodgers vs. Giants NLDS Game 5 Picks and Odds Analysis
Will Smith #16 of the Dodgers celebrates after his two run homer against Giants in game 4 of the NLDS. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP

Editor’s note: The Dodgers will go with Corey Knebel and NOT Julio Urias as their Game 5 starter. LA made a last-minute call and now Knebel will open the game for the Dodgers as they try to force the Giants to change their lineup, or at least the top of it, to face the right-hander. Urias, a lefty, is expected to then enter the game and will probably log a starter’s workload.

A season-long battle comes to a decisive conclusion on Thursday’s baseball betting card when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants wrap up their NLDS. Let’s take a look at the MLB odds for this matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants

Thursday, October 14, 2021 – 09:07 PM EDT at Oracle Park

It really wouldn’t have felt right if these two old rivals didn’t wind up playing one final contest against one another to decide their fate. Los Angeles and San Francisco split the first four games of the set, the Giants’ two wins delivered in shutout fashion while the Dodgers’ two victories were more offensive.

It leaves San Francisco with a 12-11 advantage overall in 2021 after the Giants won 10 of 19 from Los Angeles during the regular season.

The perfect ending in the rivalry also comes down to a clash of starting pitchers who turned in outstanding efforts in their earlier NLDS appearances. Julio Urias (21-3, 2.92) is up for the Dodgers opposite Logan Webb (11-3, 2.88) of the Giants, and LA started as slight -110 chalk. The moneyline has moved more in favor of San Francisco but is essentially a pick at the best online betting sites where most shops are listing 6.5 for the total.

LaMonte Wade Jr. #31 of the Giants hits a single against the Los Angeles Dodgers game 4 of the NLDS. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP

Urias & Webb Squaring Off for 4th Time in ‘21

Urias got the W in Game 2 last Friday, spinning five innings of 3-hit, 1-run baseball in the 9-2 final. The win left the Dodgers 3-3 in his six starts against the Giants this season, Urias pitching to a 3.14 ERA across those 34+ innings. The only 20-game winner in the majors this season used just 72 pitches in the outing, and in 15 starts with four days rest this season, Urias had a 3.33 ERA while the Dodgers went 12-3.

Webb’s first career postseason appearance was a beauty, the righthander getting the first 23 outs in Game 1 without allowing a run or a walk while striking out 10. The Giants were very small underdogs in the game, and it left San Francisco a perfect 4-0 when Webb faces LA this season.

The lone regular-season start Webb made against the Dodgers at home came near the end of July, the 24-year-old going six and allowing a run in a 2-1 final.

All three of Webb’s regular-season starts against LA came with Urias on the mound for LA. In those three contests, Urias worked a combined 17.2 IP with seven earned runs allowed and 15 strikeouts. Webb pitched 16 innings and allowed four earned runs while striking out 17.

Dodger Relievers Outperforming Giants Bullpen

San Francisco skipper Gabe Kapler went to his bullpen early in Tuesday’s Game 4 loss to the Dodgers, eventually, call on seven relievers to follow starter Anthony DeSclafani. All three home runs LA has in the series came against Giants' relievers who have a 5.16 ERA in the NLDS.

Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts used five bullpen arms to get the final 14 outs on Tuesday after starting Walker Buehler on short rest, and his relief corps owns a sparkling 1.58 ERA across 17 postseason innings.

Totals have split the MLB betting odds in the first four games, and it’s easy to see that LA hitters are solely responsible for two of the games going over the marks. Mookie Betts (.350, 2 HR) and Will Smith (.333, 2 HR) have been the biggest contributors, and there’s even been some noise made by Cody Bellinger (.308) after he suffered through a horrible regular season.

Kris Bryant (.462, HR) and Buster Posey (.313, HR) have been the only reliable sticks for San Francisco. Mike Yastrzemski is hitless in 12 at-bats during the four games, and will likely open this contest on the bench as the lefty swinger did in Game 2 with southpaw Urias on the mound.

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Plate Umpire has Displayed Short Fuse in ‘21

Doug Eddings is set to call balls and strikes in the big game. A veteran of 24 MLB seasons, Eddings’ 31 contests at the dish in 2021 resulted in a 12-18-1 O/U/P, the third time in the last four seasons for the ‘under’ to prevail more often than the ‘over’ with the New Mexico native behind the mask.

Eddings is known for having a lower strike zone than most hitters like, and he was among the leaders among his compadres with eight ejections in 2021.

There will still be a little sun at the start of the contest a little after 6 o’clock local time, the thermometer in the low-60s. An 8-12 mph westerly breeze (out to center) greets the start of the game, but it’s supposed to taper off. This game will be decided late, and my MLB pick says it will be decided in favor of the visitors.

MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-102)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.