Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction & Picks: Game 3 ALDS Odds for Wednesday, Oct. 7
The Chicago White Sox have started a playoff run 4-0 for the first time in playoff history, leaving them one win away from an ALCS berth if they can finish a sweep of the Cleveland Guardians. My Guardians vs. White Sox prediction has Cleveland staving off elimination, with leadoff hitter Steven Kwan setting the table offensively. While I think Cleveland comes out on top, I'm backing a Chicago slugger to go deep.
First pitch from Rate Field is set for 4 p.m. ET, airing on TBS and truTV. The White Sox are -120 betting favorites.
Guardians vs. White Sox picks & odds: AL Division Series Game 3
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Guardians ML | +102 via FanDuel | 1 unit to win 1.02 units |
| Steven Kwan Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs | -110 via bet365 | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
| Miguel Vargas to hit a home run | +520 via FanDuel | 0.25 units to win 1.3 units |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: +3.23 units
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Guardians vs. White Sox prediction & best bet
Guardians ML (+102)
Chicago may have a 2-0 lead in the series, but I am looking at the larger sample size which suggests not much separates these teams. Including the playoffs, Chicago is now 9-6 head-to-head against Cleveland, but is only outscoring them 65-to-60 with two more home runs hit (17 to 15).
I’m encouraged by the Guardians’ decision to use Daniel Espino as an opener, followed by Joey Cantillo in some capacity. Since his role shifted with an opener in front of him, Cantillo has allowed just four hits and zero runs over 15 innings, while striking out 17.
📡 SBR Edge: Cantillo's under-the-radar success
Cantillo is one of three Guardians starting pitchers in franchise history to have at least 11 consecutive games allowing two runs or fewer (2025-26).
Best Guardians vs. White Sox player prop bet
Steven Kwan Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-110)
Kwan entered the playoffs amid an 18-game on-base streak. His hot stretch started long before that, as he led the Majors in batting average (.353) and on-base percentage (.443) after the All-Star Break, among those who made a minimum of 200 plate appearances.
The Guardians are 2-19 in their last 21 playoff games when scoring three or fewer runs. Since I expect them to win the game (in large part because they had a better road record than home record this season), I expect them to perform better offensively than their collective .184 batting average, .277 on-base percentage, and .564 OPS while going 1-6 over their last seven home playoff games.
That starts with the table-setting Kwan, who slashed .357/.460/.500 against the White Sox this season.
Guardians vs. White Sox home run prediction
Miguel Vargas to hit a home run (+520)
Vargas had great numbers against Cleveland in the regular season, posting a .424 on-base percentage with six extra-base hits and 10 RBI. He is the only White Sox hitter to have homered off Espino (in a small two-at-bat sample size), and both of his hits against Cantillo in six at-bats were extra-base hits.
He turned in his first career 30-home-run season, and he and Colson Montgomery were the first White Sox teammates to hit 30+ bombs in the same year since Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez in 2019. They were also the first set of teammates to reach that milestone this season, marking the second time in franchise history that White Sox teammates were the first to reach 30 home runs in the Majors (joining Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome in 2006).
Live Guardians vs. White Sox odds
Chicago's moneyline odds have shortened as much as seven cents from an opening number of -125 at BetMGM to -118 (54.13% implied odds). With 58% of the wagers backing the White Sox, that reverse line movement suggests sharp action has backed the underdog Guardians.
As of this writing, FanDuel is the only top sports betting site offering an O/U of 7.5 runs, as the rest of the market is a half-run higher at 8. BetMGM, bet365, and DraftKings all spent time at 7.5 on Wednesday, with the first two sportsbooks flipping back and forth between the two numbers on multiple occasions. FanDuel was the only one to ever reach 8.5, but it was bet down to 7.5 each time it hit the 8.5-run plateau. We're not likely to see any more 8.5s resurface before first pitch.
Guardians vs. White Sox injuries
How to watch Guardians vs. White Sox: Game 3
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 7
- First pitch: 4 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Rate Field (Chicago)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Streaming: DIRECTV
- Guardians starter: Daniel Espino (Regular season: 0-0, 4.11 ERA)
- White Sox starter: Sean Newcomb (Regular season: 2-5, 3.09 ERA)
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