Yankees vs. Rays Prediction & Picks: ALDS Game 2 (Monday, Oct. 5)

My Yankees vs. Rays prediction focuses on both pitchers' recent dominance.  After recording just one hit in Game 1 of the ALDS, the Yankees will look to bounce back against Freddy Peralta. Meanwhile, Yankees starter Cam Schlittler will look to build on a dominant ALWC performance to even the series.

My best MLB picks for tonight's 8 p.m. ET first pitch at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., include a player prop and a home run bet. The Yankees are a -123 moneyline betting favorite, and the game will air on TBS and truTV and stream on DIRECTV.

⚾ Yankees vs. Rays picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

Total wagered: 2.75 units | Max profit: 4.35 units

🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Rays?

I'm taking the Yankees to win this one. Schlittler has allowed only two earned runs in his last 11.0 innings against the Rays, and though the Yankees couldn't hit in Game 1, Peralta isn't as dominant a starter as Drew Rasmussen.

Score prediction: Yankees 3, Rays 2

💰 Yankees vs. Rays prediction & best bet

Rays Under 2.5 (+116)

The Rays are up 1-0 in the series, but their bats weren't much better than the Yankees' in Game 1. The Rays mustered just five hits, and now they have to face Schlittler, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in 10 consecutive starts.

His last time out, Schlittler threw 117 pitches but only got through 6.1 innings. Though I don't expect him to pitch longer tonight, when he turns things over to the bullpen, I still give the Yankees the advantage, as they held the Rays hitless in 4.0 innings in Game 1.

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Rays player prop bet

Cam Schlittler Under 6.5 strikeouts (+114)

For as much as I love Schlittler in this matchup, there is a lot of value in taking him to throw fewer than 6.5 strikeouts. Earlier this season, he pitched 8.0 innings against the Rays and struck out eight batters. It's unlikely that he pitches that many innings tonight, as he has reached that threshold just once in his 15 starts since his excellent performance against the Rays.

But more importantly, the Rays finished the regular season with the fewest strikeouts. In Game 1, they struck out just five times. 

Schlittler has struck out 26 Rays in his career. That gives him an average of one strikeout for every 3.3 Rays he faces. For a price of -146, there's no way to justify taking this Over, as even if he pitches 7.0 innings, he's not guaranteed to strike out seven based on those averages.

💣 Yankees vs. Rays home run prediction

Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+575)

Bellinger has a slash line of .429/.556/.714 against Peralta. He's hit one home run and a double, and he enters this matchup having already hit a home run this postseason. 

Peralta has only allowed a barreled ball in 4.0% of opponent plate appearances. However, he's still allowed six home runs since joining the Rays, giving up at least one in four of his 10 starts. Additionally, Peralta has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing 17 home runs and a .254 average. Against right-handed hitters, he's allowed just six home runs and a .234 average.

📊 Live Yankees vs. Rays odds

The Yankees are seeing a lot of love from the public tonight, so it's a bit surprising that the moneyline price has dropped from -130 to around -120 at all the major sportsbooks. However, I believe that this is a case of oddsmakers overreacting to the Yankees' bats doing nothing against Rasmussen. Peralta isn't the same pitcher. Still, I and the betting public, anticipate this to be a low-scoring game. Nearly 60% of bets back the Under, meaning this total won't move from 6.5 before the first pitch.

📈 Yankees vs. Rays betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Rays injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Rays

• Date: Monday, Oct. 5
• First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.)
• TV: TBS/truTV
• Streaming: DIRECTV
• Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Rays starter: Freddy Peralta