Dodgers vs. Brewers Prediction & Picks: Game 1 NLCS Odds for Today, Oct. 11

Last year’s NLCS was a complete mismatch as the Los Angeles Dodgers swept the Milwaukee Brewers en route to ultimately winning their ninth World Series title in franchise history. My Dodgers vs. Brewers prediction for Game 1 of this year’s NLCS expects Milwaukee to turn the tables and put the pressure on the defending champions by taking the first game.

I’m also calling for Shohei Ohtani’s struggles to continue with the first of my MLB picks, while finding value in a different Dodgers slugger to go yard.

First pitch from American Family Field is set for tonight at 8 p.m. ET, airing on FOX and FS1. The Brewers are -113 betting favorites.

Dodgers vs. Brewers picks & odds: NLCS Game 1

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

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Dodgers vs. Brewers prediction & best bet

Brewers ML (-110)

Milwaukee is out to prove it is a different team than the one that totaled four runs in four games in a poor NLCS showing last year.

The Brewers won a franchise record 103 games and had their best run differential ever. But it’s worth highlighting how different this roster is from last year in the NLCS. Jacob Misiorowski went from pitching out of the bullpen to leading MLB in ERA and strikeouts. Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA), Garrett Mitchell (starting CF) and Cooper Pratt (starting SS since his MLB debut in June) weren’t on the roster, while William Contreras (.375, 2 HR in NLDS) was playing with a fractured finger.

Best Dodgers vs. Brewers player prop bet

Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 hits (+102)

Shohei Ohtani went 2-for-13 (.154) in the NLDS, with zero home runs or RBI, four strikeouts, and a .421 OPS. That is an extension of his struggles from the last five games of the regular season when he batted .238 (5-for-21) with one home run and six RBI, eight strikeouts, and a .558 OPS.

Ohtani is 2-for-7 with two strikeouts in his career against Misiorowski. But this version of Misiorowski is one who ranked in the 99th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, strikeout percentage and xwOBA. Even if Ohtani does put the bat on the ball, he isn’t likely to do damage, as Misiorowski has allowed just 13 barrels this since over 2,647 pitches thrown.

Ohtani has nine multi-strikeout games in his last 16 dating back to the regular season, so each at-bat against Milwaukee’s ace is more likely to end in a whiff than a base hit.

Dodgers vs. Brewers home run prediction

Max Muncy to hit a home run (+630)

Finding a player to homer in a game that has an O/U of 6 is a challenging task. That’s especially true when looking at a Brewers roster that scored 32.1% of their runs via home run (lowest rate in the Majors), while Jacob Misiorowski’s 0.72 HR/9 rate is the fourth-lowest among qualified pitchers.

I settled on Max Muncy as my home run play, as he has done nothing but hit long balls this postseason. Muncy’s three hits this postseason have all been solo home runs, which has led to a 1.000 slugging percentage and 1.250 OPS. He is also one of three players with nine or more home runs in the postseason since the start of 2024, and his 19 career playoff home runs rank him in the top 10 all-time.

Live Dodgers vs. Brewers odds

Dodgers vs. Brewers injuries

How to watch Dodgers vs. Brewers: NLCS Game 1

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: American Family Field (Milwaukee)
• TV: FOX/FS1
• Streaming: FOX One
• Dodgers starter: Tarik Skubal (Postseason: 1-0, 1.50 ERA)
• Brewers starter: Jacob Misiorowski (Postseason: 0-0, 4.50 ERA)