Dodgers vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: Game 4 NLDS Odds for Wednesday, Oct. 7

The Los Angeles Dodgers won Game 3 yesterday against the Atlanta Braves, and when a best-of-5 series is tied after two, the winner of Game 3 goes on to win the series 72% of the time. My Dodgers vs. Braves prediction expects Los Angeles to clinch its NLCS berth tonight, on the strength of an outstanding pitching performance from Tyler Glasnow.

And given how much the Dodgers have out-homered the Braves in this series, I’m backing one of their sluggers to go deep in my MLB picks. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 6 p.m. ET (FS1). Opposing Glasnow is Tyler Mahle, and the Dodgers are -140 betting favorites.

Dodgers vs. Braves picks & odds: NLDS Game 4

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: +3.21 units

Dodgers vs. Braves prediction & best bet

Dodgers ML (-140)

In Mahle’s first career postseason start in the Wild Card round, he became the first Braves pitcher since Max Fried in Game 1 of the 2020 NLWCS to allow one earned run or fewer over at least seven innings in a playoff game. But I’m calling for him to struggle against Los Angeles and its postseason experience.

Los Angeles is 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position while splitting Games 2 and 3. But that shows how the Dodgers can win in a variety of ways, such as belting two home runs off of Chris Sale, a pitcher with the best HR/9 rate in the league (0.55).

Best Dodgers vs. Braves player prop bet

Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 strikeouts (-111)

Glasnow recorded at least seven strikeouts in all four September starts and five of his final six outings, including a seven-strikeout performance against Atlanta on Aug. 25. While I understand certain teams give their starting pitchers a much shorter leash in the postseason, Dave Roberts hasn’t managed that way, and Glasnow leads all pitchers (min. 400 IP) since the start of 2023 with a 32.1% strikeout rate.

Glasnow should be in for a lengthy outing, as he ranks sixth in opponent’s OPS (.595) since the start of 2023 as well. He has held current Braves hitters to a combined .181/.237/.309 slash line in 105 at-bats, with 38 of the 86 outs (44.2%) in that split recorded via strikeout.

Dodgers vs. Braves home run prediction

Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+640)

Freeman’s 20-game stretch since the start of September, where he slashed .184/.259/.224 with one extra-base hit, seven RBIs, and 23 strikeouts, seems like a distant memory. He has homered in each of the last two games for his 17th and 18th career postseason home runs, and now gets a great matchup against Mahle.

Freeman has a .421/.500/.632 slash line in 19 at-bats against Mahle, with one home run. His 1.132 OPS is the highest by any batter against today’s opposing starting pitcher (min. 10 AB).

All of the Dodgers’ 10 runs in this series have come on seven combined home runs, making any of their sluggers’ (especially Freeman’s) home run odds worth a look.

Live Dodgers vs. Braves odds

The moneyline odds stayed relative stagnant in the first couple of hours after Game 3 ended, and bettors seemingly aren't overreacting to the Dodgers' 3-1 victory on Tuesday as just 54% of the wagers have backed the road favorites in Game 3.

DraftKings is the only top sports betting site offering an O/U of 7, as the rest of the market is a half-run higher at 7.5. It wouldn't be surprising to see DraftKings align with the rest of the market, especially since 60% of the early wagers have backed the Over.

Dodgers vs. Braves injuries

How to watch Dodgers vs. Braves: NLDS Game 4

• Date: Wednesday, Oct. 7
• First pitch: 6 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
• TV: FS1
• Streaming: Fubo
• Dodgers starter: Tyler Glasnow (Regular season: 5-2, 3.53 ERA)
• Braves starter: Tyler Mahle (Regular season: 7-10, 3.99 ERA)