Brewers vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, Oct. 7

Last night, the Padres fought off elimination, and tonight, they'll turn to Walker Buehler to keep their season alive. Meanwhile, the Brewers will look to advance to the NLCS riding the arm of Robert Gasser.

My best Brewers vs. Padres prediction focuses on how well Gasser has pitched lately, while also highlighting Buehler's recent struggles. My other MLB picks for tonight's 10 p.m. ET game at Petco Park in San Diego include a player prop and a home run bet. The Padres are slight -112 favorites. The game will air on FS1 and stream on FOX One.

Brewers vs. Padres picks & odds today

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Who will win Brewers vs. Padres?

I'm taking the Brewers to win this one 4-2. With neither lineup having much experience against their opponent's starter, I'm backing the hot hand of Gasser against Buehler, who struggled throughout the majority of the season.

Score prediction: Brewers 4 Padres 2

Brewers vs. Padres prediction & best bet

Brewers ML (-106)

Last night, the Brewers were just 2-for-7 with runners in scoring position, leaving 11 men on base. However, the Brewers finished with the second-most runs during the regular season and the second-best batting average with runners in scoring position.

Buehler is not a strikeout pitcher, ringing up just 131 batters in 153.2 innings. This is bad news as he takes on the best team in baseball when it comes to batting average on balls in play. And in a low-scoring series, it's hard not to love Gasser, who has been lights-out, over Buehler, who has allowed multiple runs in four consecutive starts.

Best Brewers vs. Padres player prop bet

Robert Gassser Over 2.5 strikeouts (+107)

With very little history between Gasser and any hitters in the Padres' lineup, I'm surprised to see this total set so low. In his last start, Gasser struck out nine batters. He's now struck out at least three batters in 20 of his 21 appearances this season.

The Padres finished the regular season tied for the ninth-fewest strikeouts. However, every Brewers starter in this series has struck out at least three Padres, and Dustin May reached that number in just 3.0 innings yesterday. 

While Gasser struck out slightly fewer than one batter per inning, he's also pitched at least 5.0 innings in three consecutive appearances. There's no real danger in him being chased early. After all, the Padres are hitting just .206 and have scored only nine runs in this series.

Brewers vs. Padres home run prediction

Christian Yelich to hit a home run (+1000)

Buehler has allowed a home run in seven consecutive starts, which is one of the main reasons I'm picking a Brewer. Buehler has allowed 176 hard-hit balls this season, which ranks 61st in the league, and 12 of the 22 home runs he's allowed have been in his home stadium.

Yelich has only hit 12 home runs this season, but he's one of just two Brewers to have hit a home run off Buehler. Though he hasn't hit a home run in this series, he's recorded a hit in every game, and he has an OPS of 1.000. Additionally, 10 of his 12 home runs have been hit off right-handed pitchers.

Live Brewers vs. Padres odds

While 52% of bets are backing the Padres to win this game, nearly two-thirds of the betting handle is backing the Brewers. While this won't cause any line movement, it shows that bigger bets are coming in on the Brewers ending the series tonight. As for the total, bettors are split nearly 50/50 on whether they think the Over or Under will hit. Expect this total to stay right at 7.5.

Brewers vs. Padres betting trends

Brewers vs. Padres injuries

How to watch Brewers vs. Padres

• Date: Wednesday, Oct. 7
• First pitch: 10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
• TV: FS1
• Streaming: FOX One
• Brewers starter: Robert Gasse
• Padres starter: Walker Buehler