Dodgers vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: Game 3 NLDS Odds for Tuesday, Oct. 6
The Braves earned a split of the first two games of this series against the Dodgers and head home in a prime position to take the series lead with ace Chris Sale on the mound. My Dodgers vs. Braves prediction expects Sale to lead Atlanta to victory, with the southpaw limiting one of Los Angeles’ hottest bats.
However, given the Dodgers’ power surge through the first two games, I am backing one of their sluggers to go yard with the last of my MLB picks. First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 6 p.m. ET (FS1, Fubo), with Yoshinobu Yamamoto opposing Sale. The game is a virtual pick'em with each team having similar moneyline odds at all of the best sports betting sites.
⚾ Dodgers vs. Braves picks & odds: NLDS Game 3
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Braves ML | -108 via FanDuel | 1 unit to win 0.93 units |
| Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 hits | +125 via bet365 | 1 unit to win 1.25 units |
| Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run | +710 via DraftKings | 0.25 units to win 1.78 units |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: +3.96 units
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💰 Dodgers vs. Braves prediction & best bet
Braves ML (-108)
Atlanta certainly didn’t back down from the mighty Dodgers in the regular season, going 5-1 in their head-to-head matchups while outscoring them 26-15. In addition, Atlanta batted .278 while averaging 4.3 runs per game in those games, while its starting pitchers collectively recorded a 1.86 ERA.
Now the Braves have their ace on the mound while bringing a 15-7 all-time playoff record at Truist Park. I also have concerns about Yoshinobu Yamamoto not pitching since Sept. 23, as his ERA is worse on six-plus days of rest, as is his .600 winning percentage compared to his .667 winning percentage in other splits.
📡 SBR Edge: Sale limits power
Since 2022 among pitchers with a minimum of 500 innings, Chris Sale has allowed the fourth-lowest opponent's OPS (.615).
🔥 Best Dodgers vs. Braves player prop bet
Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 hits (+125)
We are getting great value on this Under as Kyle Tucker is better in lefty-lefty matchups while Chris Sale has allowed worse slash line numbers to lefties than righties.
Prior to Tucker’s 1-for-4 performance in Game 2, he was slashing .344/.411/.703 with six home runs and 13 RBI over his last 18 games, including his 10th career postseason home run in Game 1. But Sale was so dominant in the Wild Card series against Philadelphia, that I expect him to neutralize Tucker’s hot bat.
Sale’s slider alone had the Phillies collectively batting 1-for-13 with zero extra-base hits and nine strikeouts. He used the slider 53.4% of the time, while 52.5% was his highest usage in a regular season start this year. Meanwhile, Tucker batted just .205 against breaking pitches this year, with a 27.3% whiff rate.
💣 Dodgers vs. Braves home run prediction
Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+710)
Through two games the Dodgers’ seven runs have all come on home runs by four different players. That’s why I am adding a Dodgers slugger to my home run portfolio even if I expect the Braves to take a 2-to-1 series lead.
Hernandez started the scoring in Game 1 on Saturday with a 431-foot bomb in the 100-degree heat of Dodger Stadium. It was his 11th career postseason home run and ninth with the Dodgers, tying him with Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, and Joc Pederson for ninth-most in franchise history.
He is one of two players with nine or more playoff home runs since the start of 2024, and ended the regular season ranked in the top five in OPS since August 30.
📊 Live Dodgers vs. Braves odds
There has been two-way movement on the moneyline odds for Game 3, as the top sports betting sites that opened with Los Angeles as a slight favorite (like DraftKings) and others that had Atlanta as a small favorite (-115 opening line at BetMGM) have since converged with this game being a virtual pick'em across the market. Thus far, the Braves are getting the slight majority of the wagers behind Sale (59%).
FanDuel remains the only sportsbook with an O/U of 6.5, as all others either opened at 6 or lowered to 6 (like in BetMGM's case). Any shift to the Under is a case of reverse line movement, as 61% of the early wagers have backed the Over.
🚑 Dodgers vs. Braves injuries
📺 How to watch Dodgers vs. Braves: NLDS Game 3
- Date: Tuesday, Oct. 6
- First pitch: 6 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
- TV: FS1
- Streaming: Fubo
- Dodgers starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Regular season: 14-9, 2.53 ERA)
- Braves starter: Chris Sale (Regular season: 14-9, 2.16 ERA)
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