Brewers vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: Game 3 NLDS Odds for Tuesday, Oct. 6

My best Brewers vs. Padres prediction focuses on the recent struggles of each team's starter. The Padres are on the brink of elimination and will turn to Nick Pivetta to try to keep their season alive. Meanwhile, the Brewers will start Dustin May as they look to complete the sweep and advance to the NLCS. 

My MLB picks below also include props for Christian Yelich and Ty France. The Padres are a -136 betting favorite ahead of Tuesday's 9:30 p.m. ET first pitch at Petco Park in San Diego. The game will air on FS1 and stream on FOX One.

⚾ Brewers vs. Padres picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

Total wagered: 3.75 units | Max profit: 4.78 units

🏆 Who will win Brewers vs. Padres?

I'm taking the Padres to win. Though May has solid numbers against the Padres, he's struggled since joining the Brewers, and the Padres finished the regular season with the league's fourth-best home record.

Score prediction: Padres 5 Brewers 4

💰 Brewers vs. Padres prediction & best bet

Over 7 runs (-110)

May has struggled since joining the Brewers, with his ERA climbing from 4.13 to 4.70 since Aug. 12. He's allowed at least two earned runs in each of his last three appearances, despite pitching 3.0 or fewer innings in each of those games. 

Pivetta has struggled against the Brewers in his career. While he's struck out 20 of 80 batters, he's also walked 11 players and allowed 18 runs. Additionally, Pivetta hasn't pitched more than 5.0 innings this season, which means plenty of at-bats for the Brewers against a Padres bullpen they've scored three runs against in this series.

🔥 Best Brewers vs. Padres player prop bet

Christian Yelich to record a hit (-130)

Yelich has recorded a hit in both games of this series, and he's now hit safely in three consecutive games and five of his last six overall. Additionally, this is a fantastic matchup for Yelich, who is 7-for-18 against Pivetta in his career.

Pivetta has held left-handed batters to a .173 average this year, but Yelich has done most of his damage against right-handers. He's hitting .244 against them, compared to just .212 against left-handers. 

Four of Yelich's seven hits against Pivetta have been for extra bases, so I'd consider taking Over 1.5 total bases for +220 as well. However, he'll likely need to get two bases with one swing, as he hasn't recorded a multi-hit game since Sept. 12.

💣 Brewers vs. Padres home run prediction

Ty France to hit a home run (+710)

Though France hasn't hit a home run this postseason, he's batting .467 with two hits in three of his four games. Against May, France has hit one home run, and he has a slash line of .333/.385/.583. 

The average exit velocity allowed by May is 90.0 mph, which ranks 56th-worst in the league. France has recorded 161 hard-hit balls, which is the 80th-most in the league, and his launch angle sweet-spot percentage is 38.5%, which is the 26th-best.

📊 Live Brewers vs. Padres odds

Despite being down 2-0 in the series, bettors are backing the Padres to win this game. Nearly two-thirds of the handle backs the Padres to win by more than 1.5 runs. The public also loves the Over, with two-thirds of the handle backing a high-scoring game. I expect the number to reach 7.5 at all of the best sports betting sites before first pitch.

🚑 Brewers vs. Padres injuries

📺 How to watch Brewers vs. Padres

• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 6
• First pitch: 9:30 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
• TV: FS1
• Streaming: FOX One
• Brewers starter: Dustin May
• Padres starter: Nick Pivetta (0-0, 2.70 ERA)