Rays vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: Game 3 ALDS Odds for Wednesday, Oct. 7
My best Rays vs. Yankees prediction focuses on the hot starts each pitcher has had this season. After recording four errors in Game 2, the Yankees will turn to Max Fried as they look to keep their season alive. Can the their bats come to life against Nick Martinez?
My other MLB picks ahead of Wednesday's 8 p.m. ET first pitch at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., include a player prop and a home run bet. The Yankees are -162 moneyline favorites. The game will air on TBS and truTV and stream on DIRECTV.
Rays vs. Yankees picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| First 5 innings: Under 3.5 runs | +108 via FanDuel | 2 units to win 2.16 units |
| Max Fried Under 4.5 strikeouts | -122 via DraftKings | 1.5 units to win 1.23 units |
| Cody Bellinger to hit a home run | +550 via bet365 | 0.25 units to win 1.38 units |
Total wagered: 3.75 units | Max profit: 4.77 units
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Who will win Rays vs. Yankees?
I'm taking the Rays to win this one. The Yankees' bats have been asleep, and with Fried striking out fewer than one batter per inning this season, there's going to be a lot of pressure on a Yankees defense that was horrible in Game 2.
Score prediction: Rays 4 Yankees 2
Rays vs. Yankees prediction & best bet
First 5 innings: Under 3.5 runs (+108)
When Fried faced the Rays on Sept. 22, he allowed four earned runs. However, three of those runs were scored in the seventh inning. Only two of the seven runs that Fried has allowed to the Rays have been scored in the first five innings, and he's holding the lineup to just .179 in his career.
Martinez has faced the Yankees three times this year, getting off to hot starts in each game. He's allowed just four earned runs in 16.2 innings, and he hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of those three appearances against New York.
📡 SBR Edge: The offenses have started slow this series
Though the Rays scored five runs in the first 5.0 innings of Game 2, only two were scored without the help of errors. These two pitching staffs have allowed just four earned runs combined in the first 5.0 innings of the first two games of this series.
Best Rays vs. Yankees player prop bet
Max Fried Under 4.5 strikeouts (-122)
In his last outing against the Rays, Fried struck out just four batters in 6.2 innings. In his career, he's struck out just 25 Rays in 140 plate appearances, an average of one strikeout for every 5.6 batters faced.
The Rays finished the regular season as the least-strikeout-prone team in the league, and they've been just as good to start the postseason. They have just nine strikeouts through two games, despite facing Cam Schlittler, who finished the regular season with 239 strikeouts, which tied for third-most in the league. He struck out just two Rays in Game 2.
Rays vs. Yankees home run prediction
Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+550)
Bellinger has already homered once this postseason, and in Game 2, he came up just short of a grand slam, as his attempt was caught on the warning track in dead center. 14 of Bellinger's 18 home runs have been hit at Yankee Stadium this season. He's also 5-for-17 against Martinez with a home run.
Additionally, 63.5% of contact Martinez has allowed has resulted in fly balls. He's allowed five home runs in his last six starts, and he's allowed a home run in each of his starts at Yankee Stadium this season, a park that saw the third-most home runs in the league (121).
📊 Live Rays vs. Yankees odds
Despite the Yankees' performance in Game 2, 63% of bets are still backing them to win Game 3. However, 55% of the handle is on the Rays, which signals that larger bets are supporting a three-game sweep, while the public is expecting home-field advantage to matter for the Yankees. As for the total, 77% of the betting handle is backing the Over, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the total hit 8 before first pitch.
🚑 Rays vs. Yankees injuries
📺 How to watch Rays vs. Yankees
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 7
- First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Streaming: DIRECTV
- Rays starter: Nick Martinez
- Yankees starter: Max Fried (1-0, 1.50 ERA)
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