Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction & Picks: Game 4 ALDS Odds for Thursday, Oct. 8

My Guardians vs. White Sox prediction for Game 4 of their American League Division Series expects Chicago to advance to the ALCS today for the first time since 2005.

My MLB picks fade the Guardians as a -120 betting favorite, with Parker Messick starting for Cleveland and Hagen Smith serving as Chicago's opener. First pitch from Rate Field in Chicago is set for 8 p.m. ET (TBS, truTV).

⚾ Guardians vs. White Sox picks & odds: ALDS Game 4

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

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💰 Guardians vs. White Sox prediction & best bet

White Sox ML (+100 via BetMGM)

I expect the White Sox to bounce back after losing Game 3. They had won five in a row entering Game 3, scoring four or more runs in four of those games.

Messick was dominant in July and August but has been trending downward over the past five weeks. He has recorded a 3.34 ERA since the start of September (29 2/3 innings) and has won just one of his three decisions in that span.

If the White Sox score four or more runs, that should be enough to secure the win. White Sox ML (+100 via BetMGM) is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.

Score prediction: White Sox 5, Guardians 4

🔥 Best Guardians vs. White Sox player prop bet

Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 total bases (+188 via DraftKings)

Randal Grichuk has owned Messick. He's 5-for-14 in his career against the Guardians left-hander, with two doubles and a triple.

Grichuk ranks 23rd in MLB with a 49.8% hard-hit rate (min. 200 batted balls), and he excels against fastballs, which are Messick's most-used pitch type (58.3%) against right-handed hitters. The White Sox designated hitter has a .348 xwOBA against fastballs this season, and I expect him to continue to have success against Messick.

Grichuk Over 1.5 total bases (+188 via DraftKings) is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.

💣 Guardians vs. White Sox home run prediction

Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 home runs (+475 via BetRivers)

Not only does Miguel Vargas rank in the 88th percentile in barrel rate in MLB, but he also has a favorable pitching matchup.

Messick throws fastballs more than 50% of the time to right-handed hitters, and that's Vargas' specialty when hitting for power. Vargas has a 10.6% Brl/PA% against fastballs from lefties (his highest among the three pitch groups).

If Messick sticks with fastballs against Vargas, the White Sox third baseman has a better-than-18% chance of going yard. Vargas Over 0.5 home runs (+475 via BetRivers) is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.

📊 Live Guardians vs. White Sox odds: ALDS Game 4

This game opened as a pick'em (-106 on each side) at Circa Sports on Wednesday night. Money has since come in on the Guardians, making them a -110 betting favorite. However, I don't believe the movement is drastic enough to affect our betting. Pinnacle is currently taking over $30,000 a side on this game, so I don't expect much more line movement before first pitch.

💵 My betting record for MLB playoff picks

MLB playoff picks have been tracked since Sept. 29.

🚑 Guardians vs. White Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Guardians vs. White Sox: ALDS Game 4

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 8
• First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Rate Field (Chicago)
• TV: TBS, truTV
• Guardians starter: Parker Messick (Regular season: 12-9, 2.56 ERA)
• White Sox opener: Hagen Smith (Regular season: 3-3, 1.29 ERA)