Guardians vs. Rays Prediction & Picks: Game 1 ALCS Odds for Today
The Guardians made history by coming back from an 0-2 hole in the ALDS to earn the right to face the Rays in the ALCS. My Guardians vs. Rays prediction expects Cleveland to find itself in another early series hole, as Tampa Bay should get another solid outing from Drew Rasmussen.
I’m also backing the Rays’ most feared slugger to go deep with the last of my MLB picks. First pitch from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., is set for 8 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). The Rays are a -175 betting favorite.
⚾ Guardians vs. Rays picks & odds: ALCS Game 1
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Rays -1.5 | +140 via FanDuel | 1 unit to win 1.4 units |
| Jo Adell Under 0.5 hits | +128 via DraftKings | 1 unit to win 1.28 units |
| Junior Caminero to hit a home run | +475 via bet365 | 0.25 units to win 1.19 units |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: +3.87 units
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Guardians vs. Rays prediction & best bet
Rays -1.5 (+140)
To say that Cleveland started slow in Games 1 and 2 against Chicago is an understatement. The Guardians scored three total runs while slugging .180 in that span, and should find similar struggles against Rays ace Drew Rasmussen.
Rasmussen finished the regular season with the third-lowest ERA (1.42) since the start of Aug. 26 (min. 25 IP). And in the 12 starts after the All-Star Break, Rasmussen went 9-0 with a 1.86 ERA over 72.2 innings pitched. He also recorded a 76:15 K:BB ratio and 0.87 WHIP.
📡 SBR Edge: Tampa Bay's home cooking
Tampa Bay and Milwaukee entered the weekend tied for MLB's best home record (57-26).
Best Guardians vs. Rays player prop bet
Jo Adell Under 0.5 hits (+128)
Since the start of 2025 (min. 200 IP), Drew Rasmussen has the fourth lowest opponent’s OPS (.575). And among those who have pitched a minimum of 500 innings since 2022, Rasmussen ranks fourth in ERA, sixth in xERA, 8th in FIP, seventh in opponent’s average, second in opponent’s OPS, and 10th in K:BB ratio.
Rasmussen is one of three pitchers (Jacob Misiorowski and Payton Tolle are the others) to rank in the 75th percentile in strikeout percentage, walk percentage, hard-hit percentage, and barrel rate among qualified starters.
Based off of this, I could in theory be confident in any Guardians slugger to go hitless. But we’re getting great value on Jo Adell’s odds since he has slashed .246/.329/.426 with seven home runs over 52 games in a Guardians uniform.
Guardians vs. Rays home run prediction
Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+475)
Junior Caminero leads MLB (min. 500 swings) with a 79.5 mph average bat speed. That is a big reason he hit 42 home runs this year and has at least one extra-base hit in two of the last five games dating back to the regular season.
Among qualified third basemen, Caminero ranks third in batting average, first in home runs, first in RBI, second in runs scored, tied for fourth in on-base percentage, and first in slugging. He hit 22 of his 42 home runs at Tropicana Field this season and is a threat to go deep against what should be a wide collection of Guardians relievers he faces in Game 1.
Live Guardians vs. Rays odds
Any line movement thus far has gone in Tampa Bay's favor, like the five-cent uptick from BetMGM's opening odds of -165 up to -170 (62.96% implied odds). As of this writing there was just a six-cent gap between FanDuel's market-low -164 odds and the high end of the market at BetMGM, despite the Rays attracting a whopping 72% of the moneyline wagers.
DraftKings is the only of our best sports betting sites currently offering an O/U of 7 runs, while the rest of the market is slightly lower at 6.5. Both bet365 and DraftKings opened with an O/U of 7, but DraftKings was the only one of the two to return there after each sportsbook lowered to 6.5 on Sunday. There wouldn't appear to be much more movement on the total before first pitch since there is a dead-even 50/50 betting split.
Guardians vs. Rays injuries
📺 How to watch Guardians vs. Rays: ALCS Game 1
- Date: Monday, Oct. 12
- First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Guardians starter: Undecided
- Rays starter: Drew Rasmussen (Postseason: 1-0, 0.00 ERA)
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