NFL Week 9 Player Prop Picks & Odds: Why I Love Goff vs. Packers & 3 Other Best Bets
We split our two NFL Week 9 player props on Thursday as we look to turn a profit for the sixth time in the last eight weeks with our best NFL player props for Sunday.
We have our eyes on three quarterbacks this week, including one leading the NFC's best team by the Super Bowl odds in a favorable matchup with a division rival.
We're also fading a young passer in what could be his final start of the year, while backing an emerging young rusher who could finally seize a starting role for good.
Here are my favorite player props for this weekend as part of our NFL Week 9 predictions.
NFL player prop picks for Week 9
NFL odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Bryce Young to throw an interception (-145 via Caesars) vs. Saints ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Chase Brown to score an anytime TD (-125 via BetMGM) vs. Raiders ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Bo Nix Over 1.5 passing TDs (+200 via bet365) at Ravens ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
- Jared Goff Over 1.5 passing TDs (+100 via BetRivers) at Packers ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tank Dell Under 4.5 receptions (+110 via DraftKings) at Jets ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
- Joe Mixon Over 20.5 rush attempts (+100 via BetMGM) at Jets ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Best player prop bets for Sunday
Bryce Young to throw an interception (-145) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Last week, we celebrated another opportunity to fade last year's No. 1 pick and lamented the fact that it might be our last chance for a while, if ever.
Sure enough, Young helped us cash on this very wager last week as he threw two picks in his return to a starting role. And he's back for more this week.
Even with his propensity for turnovers, Panthers coach Dave Canales is giving Young another shot with fill-in starter Andy Dalton (thumbs) still recovering from a car accident last month.
Whether that's really the reason or Carolina is simply turning back to the sophomore passer in hopes of a spark - even if only to drum up his trade market - I'd expect the former Alabama star to let it rip like he did last week, when he threw it a season high 37 times.
Young has thrown an interception in all three of his starts this season, and his decision-making doesn't appear to be getting any better with extra reps.
That's why I don't mind laying these -145 odds via Caesars on another sloppy showing against the Saints, who picked him off twice in Week 1 and rank second in the NFL in interceptions (10).
Best odds: -145 via Caesars | Implied probability: 59.18%
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Chase Brown to score an anytime TD (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I've long been a fan of Brown and thought the Bengals should have featured him more heavily in the offense earlier in the season.
Zac Taylor finally came around to that line of thinking a few weeks ago, and the result has been a touchdown spree for the second-year back.
Brown has now scored in four of the last five weeks after reaching paydirt last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, even though he didn't draw the start and played fewer than 50% of the backfield snaps for Cincinnati.
That should change in a big way this week with starter Zack Moss (neck) doubtful to play Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders, propelling Brown into potentially his biggest role yet.
Even with fewer than 30 snaps on average over the last five weeks, Brown has still scored five touchdowns in total while boasting double-digit carries and multiple receptions in each of those five games.
I'm surprised to see his anytime touchdown odds dealing at -125 via BetMGM, which would turn a $10 bet into an $8 profit if he finds the end zone again.
Best odds: -125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 55.56%
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Bo Nix Over 1.5 passing TDs (+200) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I've faded Nix a handful of times this season amid a rough start to his rookie season, but he's looked like a different quarterback over the last few weeks.
That was evident last Sunday, when he completed 28 of 37 passes (75.68%) for 284 yards and three touchdowns in a 28-14 win over the Panthers.
That marked the third time over the last four weeks that Nix has thrown for multiple toichdowns as this Broncos offense runs more heavily through their rookie passer.
Now he'll face a Ravens secondary that can't seem to find any rhythm under first-time defensive coordinator Zach Orr.
Through eight weeks, Baltimore has allowed the most net passing yards per game 291.4 YPG) and the second-most passing touchdowns (17) after surrendering three last week in Jameis Winston's first start in over two years.
The Ravens have survived that brutal pass defense with a spectacular scoring attack of their own, which is why they remain nearly double-digit favorites to beat the Broncos - a positive sign for the type of game script that could thrust Nix into action.
That's just one reason why I love these +200 odds on Nix to toss multiple TDs for the second straight week and fourth time in five weeks. If he does, a $10 bet at bet365 would return a $20 profit.
Best odds: +200 via bet365 | Implied probability: 33.33%
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Jared Goff Over 1.5 passing TDs (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
We're doubling down on passing touchdown props this week, and while the Nix wager has longer odds, this one might be my favorite value of the week.
Goff has been a machine under center over his last five starts, tossing 12 touchdowns to one interception while completing 83.02% of his passes - the best rate over a five-game stretch in NFL history.
Last week, he only needed 15 attempts to throw for three touchdowns, extending his streak of five consecutive starts with multiple passing TDs.
That decreased passing volume - which came in a 52-14 blowout, to be clear - is likely the reason why our best sports betting apps aren't expecting another multi-TD effort on Sunday. But that's a mistake in this particular matchup.
The Packers have already allowed 12 passing TDs this year, tied for eighth-most, and they let Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence shred them last week to the tune of 308 yards and two TDs in one of the worst efforts yet for this group.
Green Bay could be without cornerbacks Jaire Alexander (knee) and Corey Ballentine (ankle), who are both questionable this week, while starting safety Evan Williams (hamstring) has already been ruled out for Sunday.
It all adds up to a screaming mismatch on paper between this high-flying Lions offense, which throws it downfield as much as anyone, and a reeling Packers defense. And I'll gladly take advantage with these outlier odds from BetRivers.
Elsewhere though, Phil Wood is concerned about Goff performing well in poor weather as part of his Lions vs. Packers player props.
Best odds: +100 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 50%
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Best player prop bets for Thursday
Tank Dell Under 4.5 receptions (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
With the state of the Texans receiving room right now, it makes sense that our best sportsbooks have jacked up the price on Dell's receptions tonight.
Nico Collins, who led the NFL in receiving yards (576) before a Week 5 hamstring injury, is still on injured reserve. So is teammate Stefon Diggs, who tore his ACL last week and is out for the season.
That leaves Dell as the clear WR1, though this prop total feels like an overreaction to those circumstances without fully considering the matchup.
Through the first eight weeks of the season, the Jets have allowed the NFL's fewest receptions per game to opposing wide receivers (8.38) behind the star-studded cornerback trio of Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter.
With Collins and Diggs out, expect New York to focus even more attention on the 5-8, 165-pound Dell, who is much better suited as an elite complementary piece.
Dell has combined for four receptions over the last two weeks, and he's cleared this total twice in seven starts this season. If he falls short again, a $10 bet at DraftKings would return an $11 profit on a prop with odds as short as -110 elsewhere.
Our Phil Wood is also fading the Texans' passing attack with his C.J. Stroud player prop bets.
Best odds: +110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 47.62%
Joe Mixon Over 20.5 rush attempts (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
While I'm fading the public on Dell, I'm riding with the crowd on a potential big workload for Mixon.
The Texans back has rushed for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in four of his first five games with his new team - the first player to do that in NFL history - and he's carried the ball 25 times in back-to-back games.
As Wood laid out in his Texans vs. Jets prop bets, the best way to attack this Jets defense is on the ground, as New York has surrendered 125.6 rushing yards per game this season with an average of 136.7 yards over the last three weeks.
I do think there's a chance Mixon struggles to maintain his usual efficiency if the Jets key in on the run game with Collins and Diggs out. So does Mike Spector, who makes an excellent case for fading Mixon in his Texans vs. Jets prediction.
That said, the Texans have ranked in the top 10 in run rate (42.8%) since Collins' Week 5 injury, while the Jets have seen opponents run on them at the sixth-highest rate (46%). So I fully expect Mixon to get his typical volume tonight.
If he does, BetMGM is paying out $10 in profit for every $10 wagered at these +100 odds, which compare favorably to the shortest odds of -107 elsewhere.
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%
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