C.J. Stroud TNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds
C.J. Stroud leads his Houston Texans (6-2) in a road meeting with the New York Jets (2-6) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., on Thursday Night Football in Week 9. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
The latest Thursday Night Football odds favor the Jets over the Texans. As I make the best C.J. Stroud TNF player prop bets, it’s hard not to be a little concerned by this strange spread, and as part of our Week 9 NFL predictions, we break down the game itself in our Texans vs. Jets prediction.
Yes, New York is the home side, but does playing at home really make the Jets better than the Texans? If they pull off the victory, as oddsmakers think they will, then the Jets’ passing defense is likely in for a big night. That spells trouble for Stroud.
C.J. Stroud prop predictions for Thursday Night Football
- C.J. Stroud touchdown pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+168 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- C.J. Stroud Under 222.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- C.J. Stroud Under 31.5 passing attempts (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
C.J. Stroud touchdown pick vs. Jets
C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+168) ⭐⭐
The Jets are allowing an average of just 0.8 passing touchdowns per game this season. That’s the third-best mark in the NFL. They’re tied for 23rd in the league in rushing touchdowns allowed per game, so Joe Mixon may steal Stroud’s touchdowns.
That being said, the price for the Under is astronomical. The best you can get is -204, which implies a 67.11% chance that Stroud throws fewer than two touchdown passes. Stroud has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his eight games this season.
As a team, the Jets are allowing 21.3 points per game. Considering Stroud has thrown at least one touchdown pass in all but one of his games this season, getting +168 for him to throw one more touchdown than his essential floor provides good value, no matter how bad the matchup.
The Jets aren't the only good pass defense in this game, though. The Texans are pretty good in their own right. How will Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers hold up? Mike Spector digs into that in his Aaron Rodgers TNF player prop bets.
Best odds: +168 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 37.31%
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C.J. Stroud player props
NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
C.J. Stroud Under 222.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even if Stroud finds the end zone a couple of times, he will struggle through the air. When I made the best Texans vs. Jets TNF player prop bets earlier this week, Stroud’s number was set at 225.5, and the Under was going for a price of -110 at bet 365.
Since then, the total has dropped at each of our best sports betting apps, and his passing total range is now between 220.5 and 222.5. This is still high, as the Jets are allowing just 161.1 passing yards per game, and Stroud has gone under this number in two of his last three games.
bet365 is offering the best price for the Under, but they also have the total set at 220.5. The difference between -113 and -110 isn’t enough to warrant taking the lower number.
Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%
C.J. Stroud Under 31.5 passing attempts (-114) ⭐⭐⭐
Stroud has thrown at least 31 passes in all but one of his games this season, so it’s surprising to see most of our best sportsbooks with his total set at 30.5. The Jets only allow 28.0 passing attempts per game, but Stroud averages 33.25 attempts per contest.
The main reason to take the Under is that the Jets have an average run defense, so Mixon is likely to carry the load for the Texans’ offense. Plus, these two teams have played a combined 11 one-score games this season, so even if the Texans lose, it’s likely to be a close game.
The price for Under 30.5 is set at -105 at three of the five major sportsbooks. While that price is tempting, 31 is essentially Stroud’s key number. Therefore, getting an extra attempt is worth the slightly worse price of -114.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
Texans vs. Jets odds
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Texans vs. Jets
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 72 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph SW
- Favorite: Jets -1.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
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